Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in June but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 8.65% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$12.5bn. There are 4 stocks with over a yard and a half to trade.</li>
<li>The largest flows will be in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/micron-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13382:1" rel="noopener">Micron Technology (MU US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-micro-devices-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19009:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">TSMC - ADR (TSM US)</a>. </li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in June but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 8.65% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$12.5bn. There are 4 stocks with over a yard and a half to trade.
The largest flows will be in NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US), Intel Corp (INTC US), Micron Technology (MU US), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US) and TSMC - ADR (TSM US). 


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$12.5bn Trade

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization released July revenues on September 3.  Revenues are 15.5% below the same month a year ago with no clear upward trend.  This Insight takes a close look at the trends underlying WSTS revenues to understand how the year is likely  to develop.</p>

The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization released July revenues on September 3.  Revenues are 15.5% below the same month a year ago with no clear upward trend.  This Insight takes a close look at the trends underlying WSTS revenues to understand how the year is likely  to develop.

July Semiconductor Revenues Reported: Down 15.5% YoY

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>COMPUTEX and GTC Taipei drove TSMC and the TAIEX to records, before a US$1.3tn AI selloff in the U.S. sent Taiwan index futures down a record 6.65%.</li>
<li>The trigger was expectations, not fundamentals: Broadcom beat but held rather than raised its long-term AI target, and a hot US jobs report killed Fed rate-cut hopes.</li>
<li>Yet demand kept accelerating through the rout: Winbond, Foxconn and Aspeed posted record sales, and Apollo and Blackstone closed US$35bn to buy AI chips for Anthropic.</li>
</ul>


COMPUTEX and GTC Taipei drove TSMC and the TAIEX to records, before a US$1.3tn AI selloff in the U.S. sent Taiwan index futures down a record 6.65%.
The trigger was expectations, not fundamentals: Broadcom beat but held rather than raised its long-term AI target, and a hot US jobs report killed Fed rate-cut hopes.
Yet demand kept accelerating through the rout: Winbond, Foxconn and Aspeed posted record sales, and Apollo and Blackstone closed US$35bn to buy AI chips for Anthropic.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: COMPUTEX Drives TSMC to Records, Then a US$1.3tn AI Selloff

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>AI Capex is reaching operating cash flows, Hyperscalers won’t gear up and resort to equity issuance to finance Capex . At the same time, concerns are growing over token cost.</li>
<li>2 circular parameters – chicken and egg. More Capex is needed to increase scale, buy more efficient chips; so that token cost declines faster. Spend more to save more.</li>
<li>Your choice. 1) Cloud growth and margins are increasing. it’s a timing mismatch, Capex first, big profits later. 2) AI capacity can’t generate enough cash flow to finance itself. </li>
</ul>


AI Capex is reaching operating cash flows, Hyperscalers won’t gear up and resort to equity issuance to finance Capex . At the same time, concerns are growing over token cost.
2 circular parameters – chicken and egg. More Capex is needed to increase scale, buy more efficient chips; so that token cost declines faster. Spend more to save more.
Your choice. 1) Cloud growth and margins are increasing. it’s a timing mismatch, Capex first, big profits later. 2) AI capacity can’t generate enough cash flow to finance itself. 


Google Is Running Out of Money! Just Kidding! AI Capex Financing Versus Token Cost Decline.

<ul>
<li>Estimates of Semiconductors value keep going up. Memory as prices double and triple in 2026, plus volume growth. Logic because unit demand is going up (AI), plus cost increase. </li>
<li>You’ve been told during the last earnings season: Agentic / Inference demand is going ballistic. The key question is not “is there demand” but can token cost decline fast enough? </li>
<li>For the Semi industry to reach $2.5tn by 2030, how much AI Capex and revenues do we need by 2030?</li>
</ul>


Estimates of Semiconductors value keep going up. Memory as prices double and triple in 2026, plus volume growth. Logic because unit demand is going up (AI), plus cost increase. 
You’ve been told during the last earnings season: Agentic / Inference demand is going ballistic. The key question is not “is there demand” but can token cost decline fast enough? 
For the Semi industry to reach $2.5tn by 2030, how much AI Capex and revenues do we need by 2030?


Semiconductor Market Value. TSMC Said $1.5tn by 2030. WSTS Says $1.9tn in '27. $2.5 Trillion by '30?

United States

Broadcom Inc. designs, develops, and supplies semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. The Company offers storage adapters, controllers, networking processors, motion control encoders, and optical sensors, as well as infrastructure and security software to modernize, optimize, and secure the most complex hybrid environments. Broadcom serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Broadcom (AVGO US)

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$12.5bn Trade

There are no constituent changes for the index in June but there are float and capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.65% resulting in a...

Brian Freitas

July Semiconductor Revenues Reported: Down 15.5% YoY

The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization released July revenues on September 3. Revenues are 15.5% below the same month a year ago...

Jim Handy

Taiwan Tech Weekly: COMPUTEX Drives TSMC to Records, Then a US$1.3tn AI Selloff

COMPUTEX and GTC Taipei drove TSMC & TAIEX to records, but a US$1.3tn U.S. AI selloff caused Taiwan index futures to drop 6.65%. Nevertheless,...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Google Is Running Out of Money! Just Kidding! AI Capex Financing Versus Token Cost Decline.

AI companies are facing a dilemma as they need to increase Capex to lower token costs, but struggle to finance it with operating cash flows....

Nicolas Baratte

Semiconductor Market Value. TSMC Said $1.5tn by 2030. WSTS Says $1.9tn in '27. $2.5 Trillion by '30?

Semiconductor industry value is soaring value with memory and logic driving growth, fueled by increasing demand for AI technology. Key challenge...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$12.5bn Trade

There are no constituent changes for the index in June but there are float and capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.65% resulting in a...

Brian Freitas

July Semiconductor Revenues Reported: Down 15.5% YoY

The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization released July revenues on September 3. Revenues are 15.5% below the same month a year ago...

Jim Handy

Taiwan Tech Weekly: COMPUTEX Drives TSMC to Records, Then a US$1.3tn AI Selloff

​COMPUTEX and GTC Taipei drove TSMC & TAIEX to records, but a US$1.3tn U.S. AI selloff caused Taiwan index futures to drop 6.65%. Nevertheless,...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Google Is Running Out of Money! Just Kidding! AI Capex Financing Versus Token Cost Decline.

​AI companies are facing a dilemma as they need to increase Capex to lower token costs, but struggle to finance it with operating cash flows....

Nicolas Baratte

Semiconductor Market Value. TSMC Said $1.5tn by 2030. WSTS Says $1.9tn in '27. $2.5 Trillion by '30?

​Semiconductor industry value is soaring value with memory and logic driving growth, fueled by increasing demand for AI technology. Key challenge...

Nicolas Baratte

COMPUTEX and GTC Taipei drove TSMC & TAIEX to records, but a US$1.3tn U.S. AI selloff caused Taiwan index futures to drop 6.65%. Nevertheless,...

AI companies are facing a dilemma as they need to increase Capex to lower token costs, but struggle to finance it with operating cash flows....

Semiconductor industry value is soaring value with memory and logic driving growth, fueled by increasing demand for AI technology. Key challenge...