Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alimentation-couche-tard-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25103:1" rel="noopener">Alimentation Couche-Tard</a> has returned to the well with a NBIO for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">7&amp;I (3382 JP)</a>. This'll be anathema to politicians who view 7&amp;i as a local champion AND a lifeline entity.</li>
<li>Global travel outfit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/webjet-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17059:1" rel="noopener">Webjet Ltd (WEB AU)</a> has announced the separation of its two key divisions. The sum of the part is greater than the whole? I'll take that bet.</li>
<li>The Kim family turn their focus to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-galleria-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39998:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Galleria (452260 KS)</a> in the latest Partial Offer within the Hanwha Group complex. </li>
</ul>



Alimentation Couche-Tard has returned to the well with a NBIO for 7&amp;I (3382 JP). This'll be anathema to politicians who view 7&amp;i as a local champion AND a lifeline entity.
Global travel outfit Webjet Ltd (WEB AU) has announced the separation of its two key divisions. The sum of the part is greater than the whole? I'll take that bet.
The Kim family turn their focus to Hanwha Galleria (452260 KS) in the latest Partial Offer within the Hanwha Group complex. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I Holdings, Webjet, Hanwha Group, Swire Pac/Props, EOFlow

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Bloomberg reported that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brookfield-corp-e3b4f84d-56b4-4ae2-87f3-1c3e83138aea" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25297:1" rel="noopener">Brookfield (BN CN)</a> is seeking bank backing for up to €9.5 billion in debt to facilitate a potential take-private acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grifols-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21274:1" rel="noopener">Grifols SA (GRF SM)</a>.</li>
<li>Considering a €10.18/share possible offer price (institutionals are seeking €12), the A shares are trading at a 7.3% gross spread and are pricing a 62.5% possibility of deal completion.</li>
<li>The preferreds trading at 17.5% discount vs ordinary shares should be favored in case of takeover, with Long B shares/short A shares my preferred way to get involved.</li>
</ul>


Bloomberg reported that Brookfield (BN CN) is seeking bank backing for up to €9.5 billion in debt to facilitate a potential take-private acquisition of Grifols SA (GRF SM).
Considering a €10.18/share possible offer price (institutionals are seeking €12), the A shares are trading at a 7.3% gross spread and are pricing a 62.5% possibility of deal completion.
The preferreds trading at 17.5% discount vs ordinary shares should be favored in case of takeover, with Long B shares/short A shares my preferred way to get involved.


Brookfield/Grifols: Update & Recap, Spread, Discount

<ul>
<li>Grifols' founding families and Brookfield ask the Board for the necessary information to evaluate an offer for 100% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grifols-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21274:1" rel="noopener">Grifols SA (GRF SM)</a>. The CNMV has halted trading in the shares.</li>
<li>Grifols is worth €5.5 billion, after plummeting 39% in 2024. The deal smacks of desperation from the founding families, worried not to lose control of the company to debt holders. </li>
<li>There should be a minimum premium to guarantee offer success, at least 15% to current share price (maybe even 30%). B shares are protected in case of takeover.</li>
</ul>


Grifols' founding families and Brookfield ask the Board for the necessary information to evaluate an offer for 100% of Grifols SA (GRF SM). The CNMV has halted trading in the shares.
Grifols is worth €5.5 billion, after plummeting 39% in 2024. The deal smacks of desperation from the founding families, worried not to lose control of the company to debt holders. 
There should be a minimum premium to guarantee offer success, at least 15% to current share price (maybe even 30%). B shares are protected in case of takeover.


<ul>
<li>On June 24, a share purchase agreement was signed between Brookfield and several shareholders, to acquire 53.12% of Neoen's outstanding shares at €39.85/share. Brookfield has also received irrevocables for 4.36%.</li>
<li>The offer price is generous and this looks a done deal. Spread 5.19%/7.29% (gross/annualised) seems interesting in spite of the longer approval process in energy deals.</li>
<li>The convertible NEOEN 2.875 14-SEP-2027 has a balanced profile. It is trading at (mid) 100.75 (vs. €37.82), vs. a fair price estimate of 113.773.</li>
</ul>


On June 24, a share purchase agreement was signed between Brookfield and several shareholders, to acquire 53.12% of Neoen's outstanding shares at €39.85/share. Brookfield has also received irrevocables for 4.36%.
The offer price is generous and this looks a done deal. Spread 5.19%/7.29% (gross/annualised) seems interesting in spite of the longer approval process in energy deals.
The convertible NEOEN 2.875 14-SEP-2027 has a balanced profile. It is trading at (mid) 100.75 (vs. €37.82), vs. a fair price estimate of 113.773.


Brookfield/Neoen: Share Purchase Agreement, Spread and Convertibles

Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
Welcome back to the portfolio updates series!
</li>
<li>
I recently read Michael J. Mauboussin’s book, More Than You Know, which is full of practical investment lessons drawn from various fields not necessarily related to investing.
</li>
<li>
The quote below is from a chapter discussing market efficiency and cautioning investors against misusing behavioral finance to conclude that humans are irrational, and therefore, markets must be irrational as well.
</li>
</ul>



Welcome back to the portfolio updates series!


I recently read Michael J. Mauboussin’s book, More Than You Know, which is full of practical investment lessons drawn from various fields not necessarily related to investing.


The quote below is from a chapter discussing market efficiency and cautioning investors against misusing behavioral finance to conclude that humans are irrational, and therefore, markets must be irrational as well.



Canada

Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. operates as an investment management firm. The Company focuses on property development, renewable energy, infrastructure, insurance, and private equity. Brookfield Asset Management serves customers worldwide.

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Brookfield Asset Management Lt (BAM US)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I Holdings, Webjet, Hanwha Group, Swire Pac/Props, EOFlow

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Brookfield/Grifols: Update & Recap, Spread, Discount

Bloomberg reported that Brookfield (BN CN) is seeking bank backing for up to €9.5 billion in debt to facilitate a potential take-private...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

(Desperate) Takeover Bid in the Making

Grifols' founding families and Brookfield ask the Board for the necessary information to evaluate an offer for 100% of Grifols SA (GRF SM). The...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Portfolio Update: May 2024

Welcome back to the portfolio updates series! I recently read Michael J. Mauboussin’s book, More Than You Know, which is full of practical...

Contrarian Cashflows

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I Holdings, Webjet, Hanwha Group, Swire Pac/Props, EOFlow

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Brookfield/Grifols: Update & Recap, Spread, Discount

Bloomberg reported that Brookfield (BN CN) is seeking bank backing for up to €9.5 billion in debt to facilitate a potential take-private...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

(Desperate) Takeover Bid in the Making

Grifols' founding families and Brookfield ask the Board for the necessary information to evaluate an offer for 100% of Grifols SA (GRF SM). The...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Brookfield/Neoen: Share Purchase Agreement, Spread and Convertibles

On June 24, a share purchase agreement was signed between Brookfield and several shareholders, to acquire 53.12% of Neoen's outstanding shares at...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Portfolio Update: May 2024

Welcome back to the portfolio updates series! I recently read Michael J. Mauboussin’s book, More Than You Know, which is full of practical...

Contrarian Cashflows