Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Welcome back to the portfolio updates series! This month, I enjoyed a long vacation with my family, spending three weeks traveling through Italy by car.</li><li>We began our journey from our home near Munich, which allowed us to traverse the entire country from north to south and back again.</li><li>We entered Italy through South Tyrol and drove down to Tuscany, where we spent a week. Afterward, we continued our journey all the way down to Puglia, where we stayed for ten days before making the return trip.</li></ul>

Welcome back to the portfolio updates series! This month, I enjoyed a long vacation with my family, spending three weeks traveling through Italy by car.We began our journey from our home near Munich, which allowed us to traverse the entire country from north to south and back again.We entered Italy through South Tyrol and drove down to Tuscany, where we spent a week. Afterward, we continued our journey all the way down to Puglia, where we stayed for ten days before making the return trip.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A media outlet that Reports on Deals reported that the consortium will offer HK$14.50 per share, a 22.1% and 61.8% premium to the last close (HK$11.88) and undisturbed price (HK$8.96).</li>
<li>While not a knockout offer, the consortium’s impending binding proposal suggests confidence that the offer price and structure would gain the support of the substantial shareholders. </li>
<li>The downside to a deal break is low as ESR’s valuation is undemanding. Its forward EV/EBITDA multiple is at a 30% discount to the median peers’ multiple.</li>
</ul>


A media outlet that Reports on Deals reported that the consortium will offer HK$14.50 per share, a 22.1% and 61.8% premium to the last close (HK$11.88) and undisturbed price (HK$8.96).
While not a knockout offer, the consortium’s impending binding proposal suggests confidence that the offer price and structure would gain the support of the substantial shareholders. 
The downside to a deal break is low as ESR’s valuation is undemanding. Its forward EV/EBITDA multiple is at a 30% discount to the median peers’ multiple.


ESR Group (1821 HK): A Rumoured Offer Price Surfaces

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alimentation-couche-tard-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25103:1" rel="noopener">Alimentation Couche-Tard</a> has returned to the well with a NBIO for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">7&amp;I (3382 JP)</a>. This'll be anathema to politicians who view 7&amp;i as a local champion AND a lifeline entity.</li>
<li>Global travel outfit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/webjet-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17059:1" rel="noopener">Webjet Ltd (WEB AU)</a> has announced the separation of its two key divisions. The sum of the part is greater than the whole? I'll take that bet.</li>
<li>The Kim family turn their focus to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-galleria-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39998:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Galleria (452260 KS)</a> in the latest Partial Offer within the Hanwha Group complex. </li>
</ul>



Alimentation Couche-Tard has returned to the well with a NBIO for 7&amp;I (3382 JP). This'll be anathema to politicians who view 7&amp;i as a local champion AND a lifeline entity.
Global travel outfit Webjet Ltd (WEB AU) has announced the separation of its two key divisions. The sum of the part is greater than the whole? I'll take that bet.
The Kim family turn their focus to Hanwha Galleria (452260 KS) in the latest Partial Offer within the Hanwha Group complex. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I Holdings, Webjet, Hanwha Group, Swire Pac/Props, EOFlow

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Bloomberg reported that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brookfield-corp-e3b4f84d-56b4-4ae2-87f3-1c3e83138aea" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25297:1" rel="noopener">Brookfield (BN CN)</a> is seeking bank backing for up to €9.5 billion in debt to facilitate a potential take-private acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grifols-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21274:1" rel="noopener">Grifols SA (GRF SM)</a>.</li>
<li>Considering a €10.18/share possible offer price (institutionals are seeking €12), the A shares are trading at a 7.3% gross spread and are pricing a 62.5% possibility of deal completion.</li>
<li>The preferreds trading at 17.5% discount vs ordinary shares should be favored in case of takeover, with Long B shares/short A shares my preferred way to get involved.</li>
</ul>


Bloomberg reported that Brookfield (BN CN) is seeking bank backing for up to €9.5 billion in debt to facilitate a potential take-private acquisition of Grifols SA (GRF SM).
Considering a €10.18/share possible offer price (institutionals are seeking €12), the A shares are trading at a 7.3% gross spread and are pricing a 62.5% possibility of deal completion.
The preferreds trading at 17.5% discount vs ordinary shares should be favored in case of takeover, with Long B shares/short A shares my preferred way to get involved.


Brookfield/Grifols: Update & Recap, Spread, Discount

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to advance in a sideways-up pattern, with the resistance at 1,330/1,333 points and the support at 1,314 points (50-day EMA)/1,310 points.</li><li>The likelihood of the MPC maintaining the policy interest rate at the August 21 meeting has increased following the National Economic and Social Development Council's (NESDC) recent announcement of a slight revision to its 2024E GDP growth estimate, now at 2.3-2.8% (mean of 2.55%), compared to the previous 2-3% (mean of 2.5%).</li><li>We recommend stocks with positive factors: SCB, PTT and GFPT.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to advance in a sideways-up pattern, with the resistance at 1,330/1,333 points and the support at 1,314 points (50-day EMA)/1,310 points.The likelihood of the MPC maintaining the policy interest rate at the August 21 meeting has increased following the National Economic and Social Development Council's (NESDC) recent announcement of a slight revision to its 2024E GDP growth estimate, now at 2.3-2.8% (mean of 2.55%), compared to the previous 2-3% (mean of 2.5%).We recommend stocks with positive factors: SCB, PTT and GFPT.

Canada

Brookfield Corporation operates as an asset management company. The Company invests in long-life, high-quality assets and businesses, as well as focuses on real estate, infrastructure, and renewable power sectors. Brookfield serves customers worldwide.

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Brookfield (BN CN)

Portfolio Update: August 2024

Welcome back to the portfolio updates series! This month, I enjoyed a long vacation with my family, spending three weeks traveling through Italy...

Contrarian Cashflows

ESR Group (1821 HK): A Rumoured Offer Price Surfaces

The rumoured price is not a knockout bid. However, the price and structure would be sufficient to get the support of the major shareholders. The...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I Holdings, Webjet, Hanwha Group, Swire Pac/Props, EOFlow

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Brookfield/Grifols: Update & Recap, Spread, Discount

Bloomberg reported that Brookfield (BN CN) is seeking bank backing for up to €9.5 billion in debt to facilitate a potential take-private...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Daily Market Outlook and Strategic Picks

Technically, the SET Index is expected to advance in a sideways-up pattern, with the resistance at 1,330/1,333 points and the support at 1,314...

Krungthai XSpring

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