Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain a Neutral rating with a fair value of Bt177.50, based on a required return of 4.9%.</li><li>We hold a neutral view on fundamentals, with only 5% upside and a weak tactical outlook, alongside a 2-year core EPS CAGR of just 2%, below peers.</li><li>1Q26 core operations were in line with expectations. We continue to monitor the Middle East situation closely, as patients from this region account for over 24% of total revenue, while Thai patients are likely to be more cautious on healthcare spending amid a weak economic environment.</li></ul>

We maintain a Neutral rating with a fair value of Bt177.50, based on a required return of 4.9%.We hold a neutral view on fundamentals, with only 5% upside and a weak tactical outlook, alongside a 2-year core EPS CAGR of just 2%, below peers.1Q26 core operations were in line with expectations. We continue to monitor the Middle East situation closely, as patients from this region account for over 24% of total revenue, while Thai patients are likely to be more cautious on healthcare spending amid a weak economic environment.

BUMRUNGRAD HOSPITAL Plc. (BH): 1Q26 Profit In Line; Referrals To Stay Weak in 2Q26E

<ul><li>We maintain a Neutral rating, but lower our 12M FV to Bt177.50, based on a required return of 4.9%, reflecting earnings downgrades and updated macro assumptions under our house view—i.e., an Rf of 1.83% and an MRP of 4.67% (previously Bt194.00 / 4.7% / 1.23% and 5.61%).</li><li>KTX valuation metrics indicate both a neutral fundamental view (8% upside) and a neutral tactical view, while long-term earnings remain weak (2Y core EPS CAGR of 2%, below the sector average).</li><li>Near-term outlook remains unattractive, as Middle East tensions may reduce Qatari patient revenue from a high base and limit inflows from Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.</li></ul>

We maintain a Neutral rating, but lower our 12M FV to Bt177.50, based on a required return of 4.9%, reflecting earnings downgrades and updated macro assumptions under our house view—i.e., an Rf of 1.83% and an MRP of 4.67% (previously Bt194.00 / 4.7% / 1.23% and 5.61%).KTX valuation metrics indicate both a neutral fundamental view (8% upside) and a neutral tactical view, while long-term earnings remain weak (2Y core EPS CAGR of 2%, below the sector average).Near-term outlook remains unattractive, as Middle East tensions may reduce Qatari patient revenue from a high base and limit inflows from Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

Bumrungrad Hospital Plc. (BH): Limited Middle East Impact In 1Q26E...

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ihh-healthcare-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:876:1" rel="noopener">IHH Healthcare (IHH MK)</a> reported stellar performance in 3Q23 exceeding expectations, with double-digit revenue and EBITDA growth, while PAT more than doubles on higher patient volumes and improved case mix.</li>
<li>To deliver profitable growth, IHH will continue its organic expansion, including adding close to 4,000 beds in the next five years to its existing 12,000 operational beds.</li>
<li>Notwithstanding the strong underlying demand for quality healthcare services driving operational and financial growth, IHH expects cost pressures from elevated inflation, and rising interest rates.</li>
</ul>



IHH Healthcare (IHH MK) reported stellar performance in 3Q23 exceeding expectations, with double-digit revenue and EBITDA growth, while PAT more than doubles on higher patient volumes and improved case mix.
To deliver profitable growth, IHH will continue its organic expansion, including adding close to 4,000 beds in the next five years to its existing 12,000 operational beds.
Notwithstanding the strong underlying demand for quality healthcare services driving operational and financial growth, IHH expects cost pressures from elevated inflation, and rising interest rates.


IHH Healthcare (IHH MK): Double-Digit Growth Across Key Metrics for Q3; Bed Expansion to Continue

<ul><li>4Q25 NP was Bt1.9bn, down 1% YoY and 7% QoQ, in line with our and market expectations. YoY, EBIT rose 7%, but higher tax expenses of Bt424mn (vs Bt279mn in 4Q24) weighed on earnings, following a reduction in tax deductions related to investment promotion for community and social development to 120% (from 200%). QoQ, profit declined due to lower GPM and higher SG&amp;A to sales.</li><li>Revenue rose 1% YoY and 0.4% QoQ. YoY growth was driven by international patients, up 5% for the second consecutive quarter (Middle East +14%, Myanmar +26%, US +16%), offsetting a 6% decline in Thai patient revenue.</li><li>We maintain our 2026E core profit forecast at Bt7.85bn (+4% YoY). </li></ul>

4Q25 NP was Bt1.9bn, down 1% YoY and 7% QoQ, in line with our and market expectations. YoY, EBIT rose 7%, but higher tax expenses of Bt424mn (vs Bt279mn in 4Q24) weighed on earnings, following a reduction in tax deductions related to investment promotion for community and social development to 120% (from 200%). QoQ, profit declined due to lower GPM and higher SG&amp;A to sales.Revenue rose 1% YoY and 0.4% QoQ. YoY growth was driven by international patients, up 5% for the second consecutive quarter (Middle East +14%, Myanmar +26%, US +16%), offsetting a 6% decline in Thai patient revenue.We maintain our 2026E core profit forecast at Bt7.85bn (+4% YoY). 

BUMRUNGRAD HOSPITAL Plc. (BH): Earnings In Line; Special Dividend Announced

<ul><li>We expect 4Q25E core profit to grow YoY, reversing our earlier view of a slight YoY decline, driven by stronger-than-expected GPM.</li><li>Revenue is expected to grow 2% YoY and 2% QoQ, supported by continued strength in foreign patients from the Middle East, Myanmar, and Bangladesh, despite weak Cambodian patients and a slow China recovery.</li><li>We upgrade to Outperform (from Neutral), supported by improved fundamentals and higher upside of 15% to a 12M FV of Bt194.00 (from Bt166.00), based on a required return of 4.7% (direct ERP assessment), with very limited tactical downside risk.</li></ul>

We expect 4Q25E core profit to grow YoY, reversing our earlier view of a slight YoY decline, driven by stronger-than-expected GPM.Revenue is expected to grow 2% YoY and 2% QoQ, supported by continued strength in foreign patients from the Middle East, Myanmar, and Bangladesh, despite weak Cambodian patients and a slow China recovery.We upgrade to Outperform (from Neutral), supported by improved fundamentals and higher upside of 15% to a 12M FV of Bt194.00 (from Bt166.00), based on a required return of 4.7% (direct ERP assessment), with very limited tactical downside risk.

BUMRUNGRAD HOSPITAL Plc. (BH): 4Q25E Core Profit Beats Earlier View On Stronger GPM

Thailand

Bumrungrad Hospital Public Company Limited, through its subsidiaries,  owns and operates the Bumrungrad Hospital. Located in Bangkok, the Hospital has capacity of international standard medical care with 554 beds for inpatients and approximately 125 clinic examination suites that can serve up to 3,000 outpatients daily.

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Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB)

BUMRUNGRAD HOSPITAL Plc. (BH): 1Q26 Profit In Line; Referrals To Stay Weak in 2Q26E

We hold a neutral view on fundamentals, with only 5% upside and a weak tactical outlook, alongside a 2-year core EPS CAGR of just 2%, below peers.

Krungthai XSpring

Bumrungrad Hospital Plc. (BH): Limited Middle East Impact In 1Q26E...

Near-term outlook remains unattractive, as Middle East tensions may reduce Qatari patient revenue from a high base and limit inflows from Kuwait...

Krungthai XSpring

IHH Healthcare (IHH MK): Double-Digit Growth Across Key Metrics for Q3; Bed Expansion to Continue

IHH reported stellar performance in 3Q23, with 19% revenue and 26% EBITDA growth on higher patient volumes and improved case mix. The company plans...

Tina Banerjee

BUMRUNGRAD HOSPITAL Plc. (BH): Earnings In Line; Special Dividend Announced

4Q25 NP was Bt1.9bn, down 1% YoY and 7% QoQ, in line with our and market expectations. YoY, EBIT rose 7%, but higher tax expenses of Bt424mn (vs...

Krungthai XSpring

BUMRUNGRAD HOSPITAL Plc. (BH): 4Q25E Core Profit Beats Earlier View On Stronger GPM

We expect 4Q25E core profit to grow YoY, reversing our earlier view of a slight YoY decline, driven by stronger-than-expected GPM.

Krungthai XSpring

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