Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>International patient revenue is expected to have improved, with clearer progress in Kuwait and continued cost control.</li><li>We upgrade our rating to Neutral (from Underperform) and roll forward our target price to 2026E at Bt166.00, based on a required return of 5.6% and updated macro assumptions (Rf = 1.04%, MRP = 5.81%).</li><li>International patient revenue (64% of total revenue) is expected to have improved since 2H25E, particularly from the Middle East (23% of total revenue), with OPD and IPD admission volumes in 2Q25 rising 2% and 9% YoY, respectively.</li></ul>

International patient revenue is expected to have improved, with clearer progress in Kuwait and continued cost control.We upgrade our rating to Neutral (from Underperform) and roll forward our target price to 2026E at Bt166.00, based on a required return of 5.6% and updated macro assumptions (Rf = 1.04%, MRP = 5.81%).International patient revenue (64% of total revenue) is expected to have improved since 2H25E, particularly from the Middle East (23% of total revenue), with OPD and IPD admission volumes in 2Q25 rising 2% and 9% YoY, respectively.

BUMRUNGRAD HOSPITAL Plc. (BH): International Patient Trend Showing Signs Of Improvement

<ul><li>2Q25 core profit declined YoY as expected and is likely to remain weak YoY into 3Q25E due to more Middle Eastern patients seeking treatment elsewhere.</li><li>A recovery is expected in 2026E from a low base; however, with new hospital cost recognition beginning in 2027E, long-term growth is projected to just a +3% CAGR, weaker than the sector.</li><li>We downgrade our rating to Underperform (from Neutral) while maintaining the fair value at Bt150.00, based on a required return of 6.0%.</li></ul>

2Q25 core profit declined YoY as expected and is likely to remain weak YoY into 3Q25E due to more Middle Eastern patients seeking treatment elsewhere.A recovery is expected in 2026E from a low base; however, with new hospital cost recognition beginning in 2027E, long-term growth is projected to just a +3% CAGR, weaker than the sector.We downgrade our rating to Underperform (from Neutral) while maintaining the fair value at Bt150.00, based on a required return of 6.0%.

Bumrungrad Hospital - Weak 2Q25 Earnings as Expected

<ul><li>We maintain our Neutral rating but revise down the fair value to Bt150.00, based on a required return of 6.0%.</li><li>This adjustment reflects a downward revision in core profit due to weak international patient revenue and updated macroeconomic assumptions, with Rf = 1.48% and MRP = 6.83% (previously Bt175.00, 5.6%, Rf = 2.07%, and MRP = 5.58%).</li><li>The valuation metrics reflect a negative view, given the weaker long-term growth outlook of a 3% CAGR — below the industry average. </li></ul>

We maintain our Neutral rating but revise down the fair value to Bt150.00, based on a required return of 6.0%.This adjustment reflects a downward revision in core profit due to weak international patient revenue and updated macroeconomic assumptions, with Rf = 1.48% and MRP = 6.83% (previously Bt175.00, 5.6%, Rf = 2.07%, and MRP = 5.58%).The valuation metrics reflect a negative view, given the weaker long-term growth outlook of a 3% CAGR — below the industry average. 

Bumrungrad Hospital - Revised Down Core Profit to Reflect Weaker-Than- Expected Revenue Growth

<ul><li>1Q25 core profit was in line with expectations, and the 2Q25E core performance is expected to remain weak YoY due to the high base from Middle Eastern patients.</li><li>However, a recovery is anticipated in 2H25E.</li><li>We maintain a Neutral rating with a fair value of Bt175.00, based on a required return of 5.6%.</li></ul>

1Q25 core profit was in line with expectations, and the 2Q25E core performance is expected to remain weak YoY due to the high base from Middle Eastern patients.However, a recovery is anticipated in 2H25E.We maintain a Neutral rating with a fair value of Bt175.00, based on a required return of 5.6%.

Bumrungrad Hospital - 1Q25 Earnings Contracted as Expected

<ul><li>Core profit for 1Q25E is expected to remain weak, declining YoY and QoQ due to a continued drop in Middle Eastern patients and the impact of the Ramadan holy period.</li><li>We maintain a Neutral rating but revise down the fair value to Bt175.00, based on a required return of 5.6%, reflecting adjustments to our macroeconomic assumptions: Rf = 2.07%, MRP = 5.58% (previously Bt237.00, 4.1%, 2.27%, and 4.43%, respectively).</li><li>The valuation metrics have turned more negative relative to the fundamentals.</li></ul>

Core profit for 1Q25E is expected to remain weak, declining YoY and QoQ due to a continued drop in Middle Eastern patients and the impact of the Ramadan holy period.We maintain a Neutral rating but revise down the fair value to Bt175.00, based on a required return of 5.6%, reflecting adjustments to our macroeconomic assumptions: Rf = 2.07%, MRP = 5.58% (previously Bt237.00, 4.1%, 2.27%, and 4.43%, respectively).The valuation metrics have turned more negative relative to the fundamentals.

BH TB - Expect Weak 1Q25E Core Profit Due to Lower Patients from the Middle East and Ramadan

Thailand

Bumrungrad Hospital Public Company Limited, through its subsidiaries,  owns and operates the Bumrungrad Hospital. Located in Bangkok, the Hospital has capacity of international standard medical care with 554 beds for inpatients and approximately 125 clinic examination suites that can serve up to 3,000 outpatients daily.

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Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB)

BUMRUNGRAD HOSPITAL Plc. (BH): International Patient Trend Showing Signs Of Improvement

We upgrade our rating to Neutral (from Underperform) and roll forward our target price to 2026E at Bt166.00, based on a required return of 5.6% and...

Krungthai XSpring

Bumrungrad Hospital - Weak 2Q25 Earnings as Expected

2Q25 core profit declined YoY as expected and is likely to remain weak YoY into 3Q25E due to more Middle Eastern patients seeking treatment elsewhere.

Krungthai XSpring

Bumrungrad Hospital - Revised Down Core Profit to Reflect Weaker-Than- Expected Revenue Growth

We maintain our Neutral rating but revise down the fair value to Bt150.00, based on a required return of 6.0%. This adjustment reflects a downward...

Krungthai XSpring

Bumrungrad Hospital - 1Q25 Earnings Contracted as Expected

1Q25 core profit was in line with expectations, and the 2Q25E core performance is expected to remain weak YoY due to the high base from Middle...

Krungthai XSpring

BH TB - Expect Weak 1Q25E Core Profit Due to Lower Patients from the Middle East and Ramadan

Core profit for 1Q25E is expected to remain weak, declining YoY and QoQ due to a continued drop in Middle Eastern patients and the impact of the...

Krungthai XSpring

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