Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Busy Ming (1768 HK) launched its Hongkong IPO aiming to raise up to HK$ 3.3B. The company plans to sell 14.1M shares at HK$229.6-$236.6 per share.</li>
<li>Busy Ming Group is an established and growing food and beverage retailer in China. The company owns two popular brands, “Busy for You” and “Super Ming”.</li>
<li>The growth outlook more than justifies the valuation. We would recommend the investors to subscribe to the issue and cash in on the secular growth story the company is offering.</li>
</ul>


Busy Ming (1768 HK) launched its Hongkong IPO aiming to raise up to HK$ 3.3B. The company plans to sell 14.1M shares at HK$229.6-$236.6 per share.
Busy Ming Group is an established and growing food and beverage retailer in China. The company owns two popular brands, “Busy for You” and “Super Ming”.
The growth outlook more than justifies the valuation. We would recommend the investors to subscribe to the issue and cash in on the secular growth story the company is offering.


Busy Ming (1768 HK) IPO: Uplifted Margins, Strong Volumes, Market Reach Make It A Compelling BUY

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>The revenue growth being higher than the GMV growth in 25Q1-Q3 indicates that BUSY MING’s control over channels and supply chains as well as its bargaining power are strengthening.</li>
<li>BUSY MING’s business model has a low tolerance for errors. Upstream cost increase, downstream price wars, or decline in operational efficiency would break through the already thin profit barrier.</li>
<li>BUSY MING’s valuation should be lower than Pop Mart, but may be slightly higher or on par with MINISO, and in the same range as Wanchen. 20-30x P/E is acceptable.</li>
</ul>


The revenue growth being higher than the GMV growth in 25Q1-Q3 indicates that BUSY MING’s control over channels and supply chains as well as its bargaining power are strengthening.
BUSY MING’s business model has a low tolerance for errors. Upstream cost increase, downstream price wars, or decline in operational efficiency would break through the already thin profit barrier.
BUSY MING’s valuation should be lower than Pop Mart, but may be slightly higher or on par with MINISO, and in the same range as Wanchen. 20-30x P/E is acceptable.


Pre-IPO Busy Ming Group (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/busy-ming-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45154:1" rel="noopener">Busy Ming Group (1768 HK)</a>'s 3-year EPS CAGR of 43.1% places it ahead of most peers in F&amp;B retailing, including the tea beverage sector. </li>
<li>Operating on a franchise model, its 13x FY26F and 10.2x FY27F PERs are not expensive, as peers ex-<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-art-retail-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:401:1" rel="noopener">Sun Art Retail (6808 HK)</a> are averaging at 15x and 12.4x. </li>
<li>It is difficult to trade at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue (2097 HK)</a>'s and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming (1364 HK)</a>'s ~20x, due to lower margins. Our fair value is 16.5x PER, equalling HK$300.</li>
</ul>



Busy Ming Group (1768 HK)'s 3-year EPS CAGR of 43.1% places it ahead of most peers in F&amp;B retailing, including the tea beverage sector. 
Operating on a franchise model, its 13x FY26F and 10.2x FY27F PERs are not expensive, as peers ex-Sun Art Retail (6808 HK) are averaging at 15x and 12.4x. 
It is difficult to trade at Mixue (2097 HK)'s and Guming (1364 HK)'s ~20x, due to lower margins. Our fair value is 16.5x PER, equalling HK$300.


Busy Ming (1768 HK) IPO: Not Expensive with Moderate Upside

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/busy-ming-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45154:1" rel="noopener">Busy Ming Group (1768 HK)</a> is a food and beverage retailer in China. It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$428 million.</li>
<li>I previously discussed the IPO in <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/busy-ming-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:217547" rel="noopener">Busy Ming IPO: The Investment Case</a></em></strong>. </li>
<li>In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.</li>
</ul>



Busy Ming Group (1768 HK) is a food and beverage retailer in China. It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$428 million.
I previously discussed the IPO in Busy Ming IPO: The Investment Case. 
In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.


Busy Ming (1768 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Nicholas Tan

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/busy-ming-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45154:1" rel="noopener">Busy Ming Group (BMG HK)</a> is looking to raise up to US$430m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>It is a rapidly growing food and beverage retailer in China. Stores are typically located in high-traffic, high visibility, and easily accessible street-side locations.</li>
<li>In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.</li>
</ul>



Busy Ming Group (BMG HK) is looking to raise up to US$430m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is a rapidly growing food and beverage retailer in China. Stores are typically located in high-traffic, high visibility, and easily accessible street-side locations.
In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.


Aequitas: Busy Ming Pre-IPO- Priced at a Discount to Peers

China

Busy Ming is a Chinese snack and beverage retailer that operates a vast network of stores across China. The company offers a wide range of snacks and beverages, including bakery, confectionery, biscuits, nuts, puffed snacks, instant meals, chocolates, and preserves. It operates under the "Busy for You" and "Super Ming" brands through self-operated and franchised stores, focusing on a value retail model. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Changsha, China.

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Busy Ming (1768 HK)

Busy Ming (1768 HK) IPO: Uplifted Margins, Strong Volumes, Market Reach Make It A Compelling BUY

Busy Ming (1768 HK) launched Hong Kong IPO to raise up to HK$3.3B. Established F&B retailer in China with strong growth potential, recommended for...

Tina Banerjee

Pre-IPO Busy Ming Group (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

BUSY MING's IPO pricing is HK$229.6-236.6/share, with market value of HK$49.16-50.7bn. If based on our 2025, 2026, 2027 profit forecast, P/E would...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Busy Ming (1768 HK) IPO: Not Expensive with Moderate Upside

Busy Ming outperforms peers in F&B retailing at a 3-year EPS CAGR of 43.1%, with a cheap IPO at 13x FY26F and 10.2x FY27F PERs. The fair value is...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Busy Ming (1768 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

Busy Ming has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$428 million. In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the...

Arun George

Aequitas: Busy Ming Pre-IPO- Priced at a Discount to Peers

Busy Ming plans to raise $430m in its Hong Kong IPO. It is a rapidly growing food and beverage retailer in China with stores in prime locations....

Nicholas Tan

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Busy Ming (1768 HK) IPO: Uplifted Margins, Strong Volumes, Market Reach Make It A Compelling BUY

​Busy Ming (1768 HK) launched Hong Kong IPO to raise up to HK$3.3B. Established F&B retailer in China with strong growth potential, recommended for...

Tina Banerjee

Pre-IPO Busy Ming Group (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

BUSY MING's IPO pricing is HK$229.6-236.6/share, with market value of HK$49.16-50.7bn. If based on our 2025, 2026, 2027 profit forecast, P/E would...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Busy Ming (1768 HK) IPO: Not Expensive with Moderate Upside

​Busy Ming outperforms peers in F&B retailing at a 3-year EPS CAGR of 43.1%, with a cheap IPO at 13x FY26F and 10.2x FY27F PERs. The fair value is...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Busy Ming (1768 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

Busy Ming has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$428 million. In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the...

Arun George

Aequitas: Busy Ming Pre-IPO- Priced at a Discount to Peers

​Busy Ming plans to raise $430m in its Hong Kong IPO. It is a rapidly growing food and beverage retailer in China with stores in prime locations....

Nicholas Tan

Busy Ming (1768 HK) launched Hong Kong IPO to raise up to HK$3.3B. Established F&B retailer in China with strong growth potential, recommended for...

Busy Ming outperforms peers in F&B retailing at a 3-year EPS CAGR of 43.1%, with a cheap IPO at 13x FY26F and 10.2x FY27F PERs. The fair value is...

Busy Ming plans to raise $430m in its Hong Kong IPO. It is a rapidly growing food and beverage retailer in China with stores in prime locations....