Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: Over the past five trading days, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-company-limited-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD Company (1211 HK)</a> multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Traders used deep out-of-the-money put spreads as low-cost insurance against a potential sharp downside move in BYD, while diagonal put spreads remain hugely popular.</li>
<li>
Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,</li>
</ul>



Context: Over the past five trading days, BYD Company (1211 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.

Highlights: Traders used deep out-of-the-money put spreads as low-cost insurance against a potential sharp downside move in BYD, while diagonal put spreads remain hugely popular.

Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,


BYD (1211 HK) Top Trades: Bearish Positioning and Long Volatility Dominate

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>We had a positive view on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-company-limited-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD Company (1211 HK)</a> for a while, from late December 2025 to end of April 2026. The Q1 2026 disappointing earnings changed the picture.</li>
<li>Current market consensus focuses heavily on the recent domestic sales slump and profit drop: even if BYD's international exports reached record high in April 2026, international growth is not sufficient.</li>
<li>Some inflows due to recent HK indices rebalances may lift <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-company-limited-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD</a> temporarily, plus our model is flagging the stock as 'oversold' - this could be a short-term rally. Fade it.
</li>
</ul>


We had a positive view on BYD Company (1211 HK) for a while, from late December 2025 to end of April 2026. The Q1 2026 disappointing earnings changed the picture.
Current market consensus focuses heavily on the recent domestic sales slump and profit drop: even if BYD's international exports reached record high in April 2026, international growth is not sufficient.
Some inflows due to recent HK indices rebalances may lift BYD temporarily, plus our model is flagging the stock as 'oversold' - this could be a short-term rally. Fade it.



BYD (1211 HK) Tactical View: SHORT The Incoming Rally

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Maintain BUY. BYD’s 1Q26 average selling price (ASP) and GPM both beat our prior forecast with overseas contribution, which echoed our previous report titled “overseas sales could be a positive surprise in FY26”.</li><li>We expect FY26E GPM to sustain, as we estimate overseas vehicle GPM could be 6- 8ppts higher than that in China.</li><li>BYD also becomes more prudent on expenses, especially on R&amp;D, which could provide earnings resilience with higher capitalization ratio. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maintain BUY. BYD’s 1Q26 average selling price (ASP) and GPM both beat our prior forecast with overseas contribution, which echoed our previous report titled “overseas sales could be a positive surprise in FY26”.We expect FY26E GPM to sustain, as we estimate overseas vehicle GPM could be 6- 8ppts higher than that in China.BYD also becomes more prudent on expenses, especially on R&amp;D, which could provide earnings resilience with higher capitalization ratio. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BYD (1211 HK/002594 CH) - Overseas, R&D Support 1Q26 Earnings Resilience

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> has been correcting for four days from 111.4 (last WEEKLY Close) to 107.0 on Wednesday. Our model is flagging a potential BUY opportunity at a discounted price.</li>
<li>We have maintained a constructive view on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/byd-1211-hk-tactical-outlook-is-this-a-good-time-to-go-long-possibly-yes" target="_blank" rel="noopener">since late December 2025</a>, seeing a potential bottoming process that we tracked and reaffirmed in multiple insights since then.</li>
<li>This insight utilizes our proprietary quantitative model to quantify the extent of the current price extension, specifically calculated relative to the current trend, matched against similar historical  analogues.</li>
</ul>



BYD (1211 HK) has been correcting for four days from 111.4 (last WEEKLY Close) to 107.0 on Wednesday. Our model is flagging a potential BUY opportunity at a discounted price.
We have maintained a constructive view on BYD (1211 HK)since late December 2025, seeing a potential bottoming process that we tracked and reaffirmed in multiple insights since then.
This insight utilizes our proprietary quantitative model to quantify the extent of the current price extension, specifically calculated relative to the current trend, matched against similar historical  analogues.


BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Opportunity to Enter a Potential Multi-Week Rally

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>A severe fire broke out in BYD’s Pingshan factory on April 14.</li>
<li>This is the first time that BYD admitts a factory fire.</li>
<li>No limit on spreading the fire news reflects the authorities’ attitude to BYD.</li>
</ul>


A severe fire broke out in BYD’s Pingshan factory on April 14.
This is the first time that BYD admitts a factory fire.
No limit on spreading the fire news reflects the authorities’ attitude to BYD.


BYD (1211 HK): The Fire Disaster – On Site and on Social Media

China

BYD Company Limited manufactures automotive products. The Company produces ordinary passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and other products. BYD also operates battery making, rail transportation construction, and other businesses.

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BYD (002594 CH)

BYD (1211 HK) Top Trades: Bearish Positioning and Long Volatility Dominate

This breakdown provides insight into market sentiment and option structures. Highlights include deep out-of-the-money put spreads, alongside...

Gaudenz Schneider

BYD (1211 HK) Tactical View: SHORT The Incoming Rally

BYD's recent downtrend is pretty bearish. Temporary inflows due to indices rebal plus currently oversold status may trigger a small rally this...

Nico Rosti

BYD (1211 HK/002594 CH) - Overseas, R&D Support 1Q26 Earnings Resilience

BYD also becomes more prudent on expenses, especially on R&D, which could provide earnings resilience with higher capitalization ratio.

CMB International

BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Opportunity to Enter a Potential Multi-Week Rally

BYD (1211 HK) dipped 5% in 4 days, our model sees a buy-the-dip moment, a potential BUY opportunity at discounted price to enter a potential rally...

Nico Rosti

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

BYD (1211 HK) Top Trades: Bearish Positioning and Long Volatility Dominate

This breakdown provides insight into market sentiment and option structures. Highlights include deep out-of-the-money put spreads, alongside...

Gaudenz Schneider

BYD (1211 HK) Tactical View: SHORT The Incoming Rally

BYD's recent downtrend is pretty bearish. Temporary inflows due to indices rebal plus currently oversold status may trigger a small rally this...

Nico Rosti

BYD (1211 HK/002594 CH) - Overseas, R&D Support 1Q26 Earnings Resilience

BYD also becomes more prudent on expenses, especially on R&D, which could provide earnings resilience with higher capitalization ratio.

CMB International

BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Opportunity to Enter a Potential Multi-Week Rally

​BYD (1211 HK) dipped 5% in 4 days, our model sees a buy-the-dip moment, a potential BUY opportunity at discounted price to enter a potential rally...

Nico Rosti

BYD (1211 HK): The Fire Disaster – On Site and on Social Media

A severe fire broke out in BYD’s Pingshan factory on April 14. This is the first time that BYD admitted a factory fire. No limit on spreading the...

Ming Lu

BYD (1211 HK) dipped 5% in 4 days, our model sees a buy-the-dip moment, a potential BUY opportunity at discounted price to enter a potential rally...