Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China's exports surged 17.4%YoY in H1/2026, mitigating the impact of FAI declining 5.7%YoY, and retail sales eking out 0.2%YoY growth in Q2/2026. Propped by exports, Q2/2026 real GDP grew 4.3%YoY.</li>
<li>Like steel in 2011-15, car exports are soaring (70.6%YoY H1/2026) while domestic sales are slumping (-20.4%YoY). China's car exports are gaining global market share by dumping (selling below cost). </li>
<li>Real GDP will likely grow less than 4% in 2026. With net services/income and capital outflows of US$1.09trn (Jul'25-Jun'26), stimulus will increase capital flight. Nonetheless China's export companies are BUYs.</li>
</ul>


China's exports surged 17.4%YoY in H1/2026, mitigating the impact of FAI declining 5.7%YoY, and retail sales eking out 0.2%YoY growth in Q2/2026. Propped by exports, Q2/2026 real GDP grew 4.3%YoY.
Like steel in 2011-15, car exports are soaring (70.6%YoY H1/2026) while domestic sales are slumping (-20.4%YoY). China's car exports are gaining global market share by dumping (selling below cost). 
Real GDP will likely grow less than 4% in 2026. With net services/income and capital outflows of US$1.09trn (Jul'25-Jun'26), stimulus will increase capital flight. Nonetheless China's export companies are BUYs.


China: Slumping Domestic Economy Is Propped up by Exports Dumped Abroad

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong market has advanced this month, while Japan, Korea, and Taiwan have declined in a mean-reversion move sparked by apparent short covering.</li>
<li>Rising turnover, a supportive tech narrative from Beijing and increased southbound flows indicate that the rally may have legs.  Consumer discretionary and energy sectors have been the top sector performers.</li>
<li>There is evidence that some short covering catalyzed the rally during the normal June/July tight liquidity period, with low volatility and quality factors outperforming in the broader market.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong market has advanced this month, while Japan, Korea, and Taiwan have declined in a mean-reversion move sparked by apparent short covering.
Rising turnover, a supportive tech narrative from Beijing and increased southbound flows indicate that the rally may have legs.  Consumer discretionary and energy sectors have been the top sector performers.
There is evidence that some short covering catalyzed the rally during the normal June/July tight liquidity period, with low volatility and quality factors outperforming in the broader market.


Hong Kong Market Catches a Bid: What's Going On? (July 20)

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul><li>China’s lifestyle platform Xiaohongshu, known overseas as RedNote, is betting that a more diversified user base and business model can underpin long-term growth as it prepares for a Hong Kong IPO.</li><li>Chinese Politburo Member’s Downfall Exposes Shadowy Network Tied to Evergrande</li><li>A Caixin investigation into the downfall of Politburo member Ma Xingrui has uncovered a sprawling political-business syndicate that extracted billions of yuan from real estate deals and dumped toxic assets onto property giant China Vanke Co. Ltd.</li></ul>

China’s lifestyle platform Xiaohongshu, known overseas as RedNote, is betting that a more diversified user base and business model can underpin long-term growth as it prepares for a Hong Kong IPO.Chinese Politburo Member’s Downfall Exposes Shadowy Network Tied to EvergrandeA Caixin investigation into the downfall of Politburo member Ma Xingrui has uncovered a sprawling political-business syndicate that extracted billions of yuan from real estate deals and dumped toxic assets onto property giant China Vanke Co. Ltd.

CX Daily: Men, AI and a Retail Revamp Drive Xiaohongshu’s Pre-IPO Pivot 

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

<ul>
<li>China's disappointing April-June GDP growth underscores domestic consumption weakness. Exports continue to skyrocket. Export resilience in power and automobiles, along with higher overseas margins benefit companies with sustainable foreign revenues.</li>
<li>In 2026, technology, industrials, energy have outperformed. The first two fit the theme of advanced manufacturing and technology-enablers. Combining this with robust overseas revenues, a set of stocks stand out.</li>
<li>Among these stocks, CATL, Geely, Weichai Power and CNOOC figure in our Model Portfolio.</li>
</ul>


China's disappointing April-June GDP growth underscores domestic consumption weakness. Exports continue to skyrocket. Export resilience in power and automobiles, along with higher overseas margins benefit companies with sustainable foreign revenues.
In 2026, technology, industrials, energy have outperformed. The first two fit the theme of advanced manufacturing and technology-enablers. Combining this with robust overseas revenues, a set of stocks stand out.
Among these stocks, CATL, Geely, Weichai Power and CNOOC figure in our Model Portfolio.


Asian Equities: China's Tepid Domestic Growth and Skyrocketing Exports Presents Interesting Options

<ul><li>World Cup Tests Trump’s Economic Pitch The 2026 FIFA World Cup, staged across the U.S., Canada and Mexico, coincides with America’s 250th anniversary and arrives two years before the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles.</li><li>For the Trump administration, the sequence of marquee events has become a central part of the political legacy it hopes to build in a second presidential term.</li><li>The U.S. was eliminated July 6 after a 4-1 loss to Belgium in the round of 16.</li></ul>

World Cup Tests Trump’s Economic Pitch The 2026 FIFA World Cup, staged across the U.S., Canada and Mexico, coincides with America’s 250th anniversary and arrives two years before the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles.For the Trump administration, the sequence of marquee events has become a central part of the political legacy it hopes to build in a second presidential term.The U.S. was eliminated July 6 after a 4-1 loss to Belgium in the round of 16.

CX Daily: World Cup Tests Trump’s Economic Pitch 

China

BYD Company Limited manufactures automotive products. The Company produces ordinary passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and other products. BYD also operates battery making, rail transportation construction, and other businesses.

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BYD (002594 CH)

China: Slumping Domestic Economy Is Propped up by Exports Dumped Abroad

China's exports drive 4.7%YoY RGDP growth in H1/2026 despite slumping domestic demand. Like steel a decade ago, dumped car exports are gaining...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Hong Kong Market Catches a Bid: What's Going On? (July 20)

The Hong Kong market has advanced this month, while Japan, Korea, and Taiwan have declined in a mean-reversion move sparked by apparent short...

David Mudd

CX Daily: Men, AI and a Retail Revamp Drive Xiaohongshu’s Pre-IPO Pivot

China’s lifestyle platform Xiaohongshu, known overseas as RedNote, is betting that a more diversified user base and business model can underpin...

Caixin Global

Asian Equities: China's Tepid Domestic Growth and Skyrocketing Exports Presents Interesting Options

China's weak domestic consumption contrasts with strong export growth, benefiting firms with sustainable foreign revenues. Focus on overseas...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

CX Daily: World Cup Tests Trump’s Economic Pitch

TOP STORIES Cover Story: World Cup Tests Trump’s Economic Pitch The 2026 FIFA World Cup, staged across the U. S. , Canada and Mexico, coincides...

Caixin Global

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China: Slumping Domestic Economy Is Propped up by Exports Dumped Abroad

​China's exports drive 4.7%YoY RGDP growth in H1/2026 despite slumping domestic demand. Like steel a decade ago, dumped car exports are gaining...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Hong Kong Market Catches a Bid: What's Going On? (July 20)

The Hong Kong market has advanced this month, while Japan, Korea, and Taiwan have declined in a mean-reversion move sparked by apparent short...

David Mudd

CX Daily: Men, AI and a Retail Revamp Drive Xiaohongshu’s Pre-IPO Pivot

China’s lifestyle platform Xiaohongshu, known overseas as RedNote, is betting that a more diversified user base and business model can underpin...

Caixin Global

Asian Equities: China's Tepid Domestic Growth and Skyrocketing Exports Presents Interesting Options

​China's weak domestic consumption contrasts with strong export growth, benefiting firms with sustainable foreign revenues. Focus on overseas...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

CX Daily: World Cup Tests Trump’s Economic Pitch

TOP STORIES Cover Story: World Cup Tests Trump’s Economic Pitch The 2026 FIFA World Cup, staged across the U. S. , Canada and Mexico, coincides...

Caixin Global

China's exports drive 4.7%YoY RGDP growth in H1/2026 despite slumping domestic demand. Like steel a decade ago, dumped car exports are gaining...

China's weak domestic consumption contrasts with strong export growth, benefiting firms with sustainable foreign revenues. Focus on overseas...