Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 7 - July 11.</li>
<li>Since our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/global-markets-tactical-outlook-week-of-june-30-july-4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook published last week</a>, US markets became even more overbought by the end of the week, while some Asian  stocks started to pull back. </li>
<li>Stocks are falling on Monday, the Trump administration is threatening imposing 25% tariffs on a number of nations (including Japan and South Korea), global markets may close the week down.
</li>
</ul>


A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 7 - July 11.
Since our Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook published last week, US markets became even more overbought by the end of the week, while some Asian  stocks started to pull back. 
Stocks are falling on Monday, the Trump administration is threatening imposing 25% tariffs on a number of nations (including Japan and South Korea), global markets may close the week down.



Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook: July 7 to July 11

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index</a> ended on 30 June, the changes will be announced on 22 August and implemented on 5 September.</li>
<li>No constituent changes will result in a one-way turnover of 4.1% and that will mean a round-trip trade of HK$15.2bn (US$1.94bn).</li>
<li>An expansion of the index universe could lead to one constituent change and that increases the one-way turnover to 6.2% and the round-trip trade to HK$23.1bn (US$2.94bn).</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance of the Hang Seng TECH Index ended on 30 June, the changes will be announced on 22 August and implemented on 5 September.
No constituent changes will result in a one-way turnover of 4.1% and that will mean a round-trip trade of HK$15.2bn (US$1.94bn).
An expansion of the index universe could lead to one constituent change and that increases the one-way turnover to 6.2% and the round-trip trade to HK$23.1bn (US$2.94bn).


HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Universe Expansion Could Lead to One Change

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HS TECH in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on BYD, Ntes, Kuaishou, Lenovo, Li Auto, Horizonrobot, China Lit, Asmpt.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HS TECH in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on BYD, Ntes, Kuaishou, Lenovo, Li Auto, Horizonrobot, China Lit, Asmpt.


HS TECH Index Earning Revision (Jun): BYD, Ntes, Kuaishou, Lenovo, Li Auto, Horizonrobot, China Lit

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Fourteen Chinese NEV makers/brands including BYD, Great Wall, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Leapmotor, Xiaomi, HIMA, Galaxy, Zeekr, Aion, Voyah, Deepal and Avatr reported their Jun 2025 sales volumes on 1 Jul 2025.</li><li>Total NEV sales volume combined rose 27% YoY (ranging from -24% to +224%) and remained flat MoM (ranging from -20% to +19%) last month.</li><li>Li Auto missed, Xpeng and NIO in line. Li Auto’s Jun deliveries fell 11% MoM to about 36,000 units, driving its 2Q25 sales volume up by 20% QoQ to about 111,000 units, but still missing our previous forecast by about 13,000 units.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Fourteen Chinese NEV makers/brands including BYD, Great Wall, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Leapmotor, Xiaomi, HIMA, Galaxy, Zeekr, Aion, Voyah, Deepal and Avatr reported their Jun 2025 sales volumes on 1 Jul 2025.Total NEV sales volume combined rose 27% YoY (ranging from -24% to +224%) and remained flat MoM (ranging from -20% to +19%) last month.Li Auto missed, Xpeng and NIO in line. Li Auto’s Jun deliveries fell 11% MoM to about 36,000 units, driving its 2Q25 sales volume up by 20% QoQ to about 111,000 units, but still missing our previous forecast by about 13,000 units.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - New models to drive NEV sales in 3Q after a solid Jun

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSCEI in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Ntes, Meituan, Bidu, CCB, ICBC, Beigene, Shenzhou Intl, Zijin Mining.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSCEI in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Ntes, Meituan, Bidu, CCB, ICBC, Beigene, Shenzhou Intl, Zijin Mining.


HSCEI Index Earning Revision (Jun): Ntes, Meituan, Bidu, CCB, ICBC, Beigene, Shenzhou Intl

China

BYD Company Limited manufactures automotive products. The Company produces ordinary passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and other products. BYD also operates battery making, rail transportation construction, and other businesses.

Price Gauge
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BYD (002594 CH)

Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook: July 7 to July 11

Global markets may close the week down as US markets became very overbought and stocks started to pull back globally, while the Trump...

Nico Rosti

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Universe Expansion Could Lead to One Change

Horizon Robotics' FAF increase will result in big passive buying. An expansion of the index universe could lead to one constituent change with...

Brian Freitas

HS TECH Index Earning Revision (Jun): BYD, Ntes, Kuaishou, Lenovo, Li Auto, Horizonrobot, China Lit

We analyzed HS TECH's consensus for Jun 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in BYD, Ntes, Kuaishou, Lenovo, Li Auto, Horizonrobot, China Lit, Asmpt.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Auto - New models to drive NEV sales in 3Q after a solid Jun

Total NEV sales volume combined rose 27% YoY (ranging from -24% to +224%) and remained flat MoM (ranging from -20% to +19%) last month.

CMB International

HSCEI Index Earning Revision (Jun): Ntes, Meituan, Bidu, CCB, ICBC, Beigene, Shenzhou Intl

We analyzed HSCEI's consensus for Jun 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Ntes, Meituan, Bidu, CCB, ICBC, Beigene, Shenzhou Intl, Zijin Mining.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook: July 7 to July 11

​Global markets may close the week down as US markets became very overbought and stocks started to pull back globally, while the Trump...

Nico Rosti

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Universe Expansion Could Lead to One Change

Horizon Robotics' FAF increase will result in big passive buying. An expansion of the index universe could lead to one constituent change with...

Brian Freitas

HS TECH Index Earning Revision (Jun): BYD, Ntes, Kuaishou, Lenovo, Li Auto, Horizonrobot, China Lit

We analyzed HS TECH's consensus for Jun 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in BYD, Ntes, Kuaishou, Lenovo, Li Auto, Horizonrobot, China Lit, Asmpt.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Auto - New models to drive NEV sales in 3Q after a solid Jun

Total NEV sales volume combined rose 27% YoY (ranging from -24% to +224%) and remained flat MoM (ranging from -20% to +19%) last month.

CMB International

HSCEI Index Earning Revision (Jun): Ntes, Meituan, Bidu, CCB, ICBC, Beigene, Shenzhou Intl

We analyzed HSCEI's consensus for Jun 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Ntes, Meituan, Bidu, CCB, ICBC, Beigene, Shenzhou Intl, Zijin Mining.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Global markets may close the week down as US markets became very overbought and stocks started to pull back globally, while the Trump...