HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Statistics supported "Sell in May, go away" for the HSI. Since 2013, the average return for May is -2%, and is negative in 8 out of the last 12 years.</li>
<li>On average, May is the worst month since 2020, too. This even eclipsed the month of Oct, which is widely believed to be normally the worst month.</li>
<li>If a weak May happens, the heavily weighted yet strongly performed constituents like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> are to suffer. </li>
</ul>


Statistics supported "Sell in May, go away" for the HSI. Since 2013, the average return for May is -2%, and is negative in 8 out of the last 12 years.
On average, May is the worst month since 2020, too. This even eclipsed the month of Oct, which is widely believed to be normally the worst month.
If a weak May happens, the heavily weighted yet strongly performed constituents like BYD (1211 HK), Alibaba Group (9988 HK), and Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) are to suffer. 


HK Strategy: Sell in May, Go Away? The History Says Yes!

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Geely’s deliveries reached 46% of BYD in 1Q25, while the number was 23% in 2024.</li>
<li>The delivery growth rate accelerated since December 2024 and reached 54% YoY in March 2025.</li>
<li>We believe, even without production capacity expansion, BEV deliveries can grow significantly YoY in 2Q25 and 3Q25.</li>
</ul>


Geely’s deliveries reached 46% of BYD in 1Q25, while the number was 23% in 2024.
The delivery growth rate accelerated since December 2024 and reached 54% YoY in March 2025.
We believe, even without production capacity expansion, BEV deliveries can grow significantly YoY in 2Q25 and 3Q25.


Geely (175 HK): To Be Only Comparable Competitor to BYD in 1Q25

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 149 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 87.8% as of Apr 25th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -2.7ppt week-on-week, led by health care, financials, energy and offset by communication services.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Shanghai Petrochemical, Datang Intl Power Gen, Beigene, Maanshan Iron &amp; Steel.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 149 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 87.8% as of Apr 25th.
The average A-H premium changed by -2.7ppt week-on-week, led by health care, financials, energy and offset by communication services.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Shanghai Petrochemical, Datang Intl Power Gen, Beigene, Maanshan Iron &amp; Steel.


A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 25th): Shanghai Petrochemical, Datang Intl Power Gen, Beigene

<ul>
<li>In 1Q25, BYD’s revenue increased by 36% YoY and sales volume increased by 60% YoY.</li>
<li>We believe BYD’s scale advantage will help cashflow and the competition in the coming market concentration.</li>
<li>The P/E band suggests an upside of 59% for the end of 2025.</li>
</ul>


In 1Q25, BYD’s revenue increased by 36% YoY and sales volume increased by 60% YoY.
We believe BYD’s scale advantage will help cashflow and the competition in the coming market concentration.
The P/E band suggests an upside of 59% for the end of 2025.


BYD (1211 HK): Rev up by 36% in 1Q25, Scale to Bring 60% Upside

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ather-energy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43903:1" rel="noopener">Ather Energy</a> is now looking to raise about US$350m in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>Ather is a pure play electric vehicle company in India designing and developing E2Ws, battery packs, charging infrastructure, associated software and accessories, also manufacturing battery packs and assembling E2Ws in-house.</li>
<li>In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about the updates since then and valuations.</li>
</ul>



Ather Energy is now looking to raise about US$350m in its upcoming India IPO.
Ather is a pure play electric vehicle company in India designing and developing E2Ws, battery packs, charging infrastructure, associated software and accessories, also manufacturing battery packs and assembling E2Ws in-house.
In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about the updates since then and valuations.


Ather Energy IPO - Still Not Cheap Enough

China

BYD Company Limited manufactures automotive products. The Company produces ordinary passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and other products. BYD also operates battery making, rail transportation construction, and other businesses.

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BYD (002594 CH)

HK Strategy: Sell in May, Go Away? The History Says Yes!

Statistics show "Sell in May, go away" holds true for HSI with negative returns in May since 2013, making it the worst one, even surpassing Oct....

Osbert Tang, CFA

Geely (175 HK): To Be Only Comparable Competitor to BYD in 1Q25

Geely’s deliveries reached 46% of BYD in 1Q25. The delivery growth rate accelerated since December 2024. We believe BEV deliveries can grow...

Ming Lu

A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 25th): Shanghai Petrochemical, Datang Intl Power Gen, Beigene

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Shanghai Petrochemical, Datang Intl Power Gen, Beigene,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

BYD (1211 HK): Rev up by 36% in 1Q25, Scale to Bring 60% Upside

In 1Q25, BYD’s revenue increased by 36% YoY and sales volume increased by 60% YoY. We believe BYD’s scale advantage will help cashflow and the...

Ming Lu

Ather Energy IPO - Still Not Cheap Enough

Ather Energy is now looking to raise about US$350m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about valuations for the IPO.

Sumeet Singh

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52-week Range

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HK Strategy: Sell in May, Go Away? The History Says Yes!

​Statistics show "Sell in May, go away" holds true for HSI with negative returns in May since 2013, making it the worst one, even surpassing Oct....

Osbert Tang, CFA

Geely (175 HK): To Be Only Comparable Competitor to BYD in 1Q25

Geely’s deliveries reached 46% of BYD in 1Q25. The delivery growth rate accelerated since December 2024. We believe BEV deliveries can grow...

Ming Lu

A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 25th): Shanghai Petrochemical, Datang Intl Power Gen, Beigene

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Shanghai Petrochemical, Datang Intl Power Gen, Beigene,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

BYD (1211 HK): Rev up by 36% in 1Q25, Scale to Bring 60% Upside

In 1Q25, BYD’s revenue increased by 36% YoY and sales volume increased by 60% YoY. We believe BYD’s scale advantage will help cashflow and the...

Ming Lu

Ather Energy IPO - Still Not Cheap Enough

Ather Energy is now looking to raise about US$350m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about valuations for the IPO.

Sumeet Singh

Statistics show "Sell in May, go away" holds true for HSI with negative returns in May since 2013, making it the worst one, even surpassing Oct....