IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">Vinfast (VFS US)</a>, a Vietnamese EV manufacturer and a majority-owned affiliate of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vingroup-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13213:1" rel="noopener">Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN)</a>, completed its merger with Black Spade on 14 August. </li>
<li>Due to the low float, the shares have been on a wild ride, with the last close of US$6.56 materially below the high of US$82.35 per share.</li>
<li>VinFast remains an avoid due to related party-driven EV sales, declining customer traction, operating losses, cash burn, equity raise overhang and frothy valuation.  </li>
</ul>



Vinfast (VFS US), a Vietnamese EV manufacturer and a majority-owned affiliate of Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN), completed its merger with Black Spade on 14 August. 
Due to the low float, the shares have been on a wild ride, with the last close of US$6.56 materially below the high of US$82.35 per share.
VinFast remains an avoid due to related party-driven EV sales, declining customer traction, operating losses, cash burn, equity raise overhang and frothy valuation.  


2024 High Conviction: VinFast (VFS US) – Heading for Trouble

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Tesla is facing a dilemma whether to aggressively cut price to boost shipment but lose margins or to keep price stable with a more moderated shipment growth like 10-20% y/y. </li>
<li>Three challenges ahead: 1. Collapsing margin vs. rising margin for key competitors? 2. Cybertruck is selling at a loss, more margin downside? 3. Valuation reset for lower sales CAGR? </li>
<li>Cautious on Tesla as its sales/earnings CAGR is falling below 20% with a rich valuation until we see cost cut on Cybertruck, FSD AI breakthrough, and low price model introduction.</li>
</ul>


Tesla is facing a dilemma whether to aggressively cut price to boost shipment but lose margins or to keep price stable with a more moderated shipment growth like 10-20% y/y. 
Three challenges ahead: 1. Collapsing margin vs. rising margin for key competitors? 2. Cybertruck is selling at a loss, more margin downside? 3. Valuation reset for lower sales CAGR? 
Cautious on Tesla as its sales/earnings CAGR is falling below 20% with a rich valuation until we see cost cut on Cybertruck, FSD AI breakthrough, and low price model introduction.


Tesla (TSLA) No Longer Prevails, a Dilemma and Touch Challenges Ahead

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corporation-class-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi (1810 HK)</a> smartphone ASP grew 25% QoQ thanks to the premiumization strategy, which helps to cover the bleeding from the EV unit. </li>
<li>The ASP hike unfortunately won't be enough to cover the ongoing loss from the EV unit, even from the dual-screen new units. </li>
<li>With the launch of Beijing Phase II and SkyNomad SUV series, Xiaomi may be able to sell more than 40,000 units/month, which adds back RMB 2.6 billion. </li>
</ul>



Xiaomi (1810 HK) smartphone ASP grew 25% QoQ thanks to the premiumization strategy, which helps to cover the bleeding from the EV unit. 
The ASP hike unfortunately won't be enough to cover the ongoing loss from the EV unit, even from the dual-screen new units. 
With the launch of Beijing Phase II and SkyNomad SUV series, Xiaomi may be able to sell more than 40,000 units/month, which adds back RMB 2.6 billion. 


Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: Over the past five trading days, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-company-limited-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD Company (1211 HK)</a> multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Traders used deep out-of-the-money put spreads as low-cost insurance against a potential sharp downside move in BYD, while diagonal put spreads remain hugely popular.</li>
<li>
Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,</li>
</ul>



Context: Over the past five trading days, BYD Company (1211 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.

Highlights: Traders used deep out-of-the-money put spreads as low-cost insurance against a potential sharp downside move in BYD, while diagonal put spreads remain hugely popular.

Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,


BYD (1211 HK) Top Trades: Bearish Positioning and Long Volatility Dominate

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>We had a positive view on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-company-limited-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD Company (1211 HK)</a> for a while, from late December 2025 to end of April 2026. The Q1 2026 disappointing earnings changed the picture.</li>
<li>Current market consensus focuses heavily on the recent domestic sales slump and profit drop: even if BYD's international exports reached record high in April 2026, international growth is not sufficient.</li>
<li>Some inflows due to recent HK indices rebalances may lift <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-company-limited-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD</a> temporarily, plus our model is flagging the stock as 'oversold' - this could be a short-term rally. Fade it.
</li>
</ul>


We had a positive view on BYD Company (1211 HK) for a while, from late December 2025 to end of April 2026. The Q1 2026 disappointing earnings changed the picture.
Current market consensus focuses heavily on the recent domestic sales slump and profit drop: even if BYD's international exports reached record high in April 2026, international growth is not sufficient.
Some inflows due to recent HK indices rebalances may lift BYD temporarily, plus our model is flagging the stock as 'oversold' - this could be a short-term rally. Fade it.



BYD (1211 HK) Tactical View: SHORT The Incoming Rally

China

BYD Company Limited manufactures automotive products. The Company produces ordinary passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and other products. BYD also operates battery making, rail transportation construction, and other businesses.

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BYD (002594 CH)

2024 High Conviction: VinFast (VFS US) – Heading for Trouble

VinFast remains an avoid due to related party-driven EV sales, declining customer traction, operating losses, cash burn, equity raise overhang and...

Arun George

Tesla (TSLA) No Longer Prevails, a Dilemma and Touch Challenges Ahead

Tesla No Longer Prevails, a Dilemma and Three Touch Challenges Ahead: 1. Collapsing margin vs. rising margin for peers; 2. Cybertruck is selling at...

Andrew Lu

Xiaomi (1810): Hinges on the EV

After a poor profitability period, it looks a bit better after Xiaomi recorded a higher ASP from its smartphone unit, covering for the bleeding EV...

Henry Soediarko

BYD (1211 HK) Top Trades: Bearish Positioning and Long Volatility Dominate

This breakdown provides insight into market sentiment and option structures. Highlights include deep out-of-the-money put spreads, alongside...

Gaudenz Schneider

BYD (1211 HK) Tactical View: SHORT The Incoming Rally

BYD's recent downtrend is pretty bearish. Temporary inflows due to indices rebal plus currently oversold status may trigger a small rally this...

Nico Rosti

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