Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Abnormally high growth during CNY of the express delivery parcel data showed social gift giving likely bumped up 20ppt YoY growth this CNY;</li>
<li>BYD plans to extend ADS to its low priced cars. 2025 will be a year L3 ADS extending to mainstream EV's now this prediction is even conservative;</li>
<li>Chinese EV makers are launching free price wars. But zero financing may be prompted by the banks, not by EV makers, mitigating margin impact.</li>
</ul>


Abnormally high growth during CNY of the express delivery parcel data showed social gift giving likely bumped up 20ppt YoY growth this CNY;
BYD plans to extend ADS to its low priced cars. 2025 will be a year L3 ADS extending to mainstream EV's now this prediction is even conservative;
Chinese EV makers are launching free price wars. But zero financing may be prompted by the banks, not by EV makers, mitigating margin impact.


[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 6/52] Express Delivery Showed Social Gift Took off During CNY

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (GUM HK)</a> is looking to raise US$202m in its Hong Kong IPO. Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China.</li>
<li>Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China. Guming focuses on the mid-priced freshly-made tea beverage market with product prices typically ranging between RMB10-18.</li>
<li>In this note, we discuss our thoughts on valuation at the IPO price range.</li>
</ul>



Guming Holdings (GUM HK) is looking to raise US$202m in its Hong Kong IPO. Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China.
Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China. Guming focuses on the mid-priced freshly-made tea beverage market with product prices typically ranging between RMB10-18.
In this note, we discuss our thoughts on valuation at the IPO price range.


Guming Holdings IPO - Digestible Valuation from the Bottom End

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN)</a> raised around US$734m in its India IPO in August 2024. The lockup for its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>Ola Electric Mobility is a vertically integrated pure EV player in India with manufacturing capabilities for EVs and EV components, including cells</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN) raised around US$734m in its India IPO in August 2024. The lockup for its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Ola Electric Mobility is a vertically integrated pure EV player in India with manufacturing capabilities for EVs and EV components, including cells
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Ola Electric IPO Lockup - US$1.6bn+ Lockup Release

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Apple (AAPL US, NR) reported FY1Q25 (CY4Q24) revenue of US$124.3bn (+4% YoY) and EPS of US$2.4 (+10% YoY), above market consensus, thanks to better iPad/Mac (+15%/16%) and record Services GPM, offsetting iPhone miss (-1%) and China weakness (-11%).</li><li>For FY2Q25E, mgmt. guidance was better-than-feared, with revenue growth of low-to-mid-single digit, service sales growth of double digits and GPM of 46.5%-47.5%.</li><li>With Apple Intelligence rollouts in more markets and China’s smartphone subsidy in 1H25E, we expect new AI features and upcoming 5 new iPhone model will boost higher iPhone shipment in 2025.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Apple (AAPL US, NR) reported FY1Q25 (CY4Q24) revenue of US$124.3bn (+4% YoY) and EPS of US$2.4 (+10% YoY), above market consensus, thanks to better iPad/Mac (+15%/16%) and record Services GPM, offsetting iPhone miss (-1%) and China weakness (-11%).For FY2Q25E, mgmt. guidance was better-than-feared, with revenue growth of low-to-mid-single digit, service sales growth of double digits and GPM of 46.5%-47.5%.With Apple Intelligence rollouts in more markets and China’s smartphone subsidy in 1H25E, we expect new AI features and upcoming 5 new iPhone model will boost higher iPhone shipment in 2025.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Technology - Apple FY1Q25: Beat on IPad/Mac Offsetting China/ IPhone Weakness

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li>The HSTECH index is trading higher on higher breadth and momentum in January, up 6% so far.  Analysts project an upside of 23% over 12 months.</li>
<li>China's semiconductor sector is advancing this year from AI enthusiasm and accelerated localization in the chip industry.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a> shares have benefited from this trend.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-technology-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK)</a> benefits from China's announcement that it will subsidize more consumer products, including smartphones and new vehicles.
</li>
</ul>


The HSTECH index is trading higher on higher breadth and momentum in January, up 6% so far.  Analysts project an upside of 23% over 12 months.
China's semiconductor sector is advancing this year from AI enthusiasm and accelerated localization in the chip industry.  Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK) shares have benefited from this trend.

Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK) benefits from China's announcement that it will subsidize more consumer products, including smartphones and new vehicles.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (January 25)

China

BYD Electronic International Co., Ltd. researches, develops, manufactures handset components such as handset casings and handset keypads and modules for handset manufacturers.  The Company also provides assembly services comprising assembly service and PCB assembly service to global handset manufacturers.

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BYD Electronics (285 HK)

Guming Holdings IPO - Digestible Valuation from the Bottom End

Guming Holdings (GUM HK) is looking to raise US$202m in its Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we discuss our thoughts on valuation at the IPO price range.

Clarence Chu

Ola Electric IPO Lockup - US$1.6bn+ Lockup Release

Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN) raised around US$734m in its India IPO in August 2024. The lockup for its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

Technology - Apple FY1Q25: Beat on IPad/Mac Offsetting China/ IPhone Weakness

Apple (AAPL US, NR) reported FY1Q25 (CY4Q24) revenue of US$124.3bn (+4% YoY) and EPS of US$2.4 (+10% YoY), above market consensus, thanks to better...

CMB International

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (January 25)

HSTECH advances with good market breadth in January. SMIC is benefiting from AI advances as well as the localization trend in semi industry. ...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

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Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 6/52] Express Delivery Showed Social Gift Took off During CNY

​CNY gift giving boosts express delivery growth, BYD to add ADS to low priced cars, Chinese EV makers engage in price wars with potential financing...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Guming Holdings IPO - Digestible Valuation from the Bottom End

Guming Holdings (GUM HK) is looking to raise US$202m in its Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we discuss our thoughts on valuation at the IPO price range.

Clarence Chu

Ola Electric IPO Lockup - US$1.6bn+ Lockup Release

Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN) raised around US$734m in its India IPO in August 2024. The lockup for its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

Technology - Apple FY1Q25: Beat on IPad/Mac Offsetting China/ IPhone Weakness

Apple (AAPL US, NR) reported FY1Q25 (CY4Q24) revenue of US$124.3bn (+4% YoY) and EPS of US$2.4 (+10% YoY), above market consensus, thanks to better...

CMB International

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (January 25)

HSTECH advances with good market breadth in January. SMIC is benefiting from AI advances as well as the localization trend in semi industry. ...

David Mudd

CNY gift giving boosts express delivery growth, BYD to add ADS to low priced cars, Chinese EV makers engage in price wars with potential financing...