Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Abnormally high growth during CNY of the express delivery parcel data showed social gift giving likely bumped up 20ppt YoY growth this CNY;</li>
<li>BYD plans to extend ADS to its low priced cars. 2025 will be a year L3 ADS extending to mainstream EV's now this prediction is even conservative;</li>
<li>Chinese EV makers are launching free price wars. But zero financing may be prompted by the banks, not by EV makers, mitigating margin impact.</li>
</ul>


Abnormally high growth during CNY of the express delivery parcel data showed social gift giving likely bumped up 20ppt YoY growth this CNY;
BYD plans to extend ADS to its low priced cars. 2025 will be a year L3 ADS extending to mainstream EV's now this prediction is even conservative;
Chinese EV makers are launching free price wars. But zero financing may be prompted by the banks, not by EV makers, mitigating margin impact.


[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 6/52] Express Delivery Showed Social Gift Took off During CNY

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Apple (AAPL US, NR) reported FY1Q25 (CY4Q24) revenue of US$124.3bn (+4% YoY) and EPS of US$2.4 (+10% YoY), above market consensus, thanks to better iPad/Mac (+15%/16%) and record Services GPM, offsetting iPhone miss (-1%) and China weakness (-11%).</li><li>For FY2Q25E, mgmt. guidance was better-than-feared, with revenue growth of low-to-mid-single digit, service sales growth of double digits and GPM of 46.5%-47.5%.</li><li>With Apple Intelligence rollouts in more markets and China’s smartphone subsidy in 1H25E, we expect new AI features and upcoming 5 new iPhone model will boost higher iPhone shipment in 2025.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Apple (AAPL US, NR) reported FY1Q25 (CY4Q24) revenue of US$124.3bn (+4% YoY) and EPS of US$2.4 (+10% YoY), above market consensus, thanks to better iPad/Mac (+15%/16%) and record Services GPM, offsetting iPhone miss (-1%) and China weakness (-11%).For FY2Q25E, mgmt. guidance was better-than-feared, with revenue growth of low-to-mid-single digit, service sales growth of double digits and GPM of 46.5%-47.5%.With Apple Intelligence rollouts in more markets and China’s smartphone subsidy in 1H25E, we expect new AI features and upcoming 5 new iPhone model will boost higher iPhone shipment in 2025.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Technology - Apple FY1Q25: Beat on IPad/Mac Offsetting China/ IPhone Weakness

<ul><li>4Q24 global smartphone shipments grew 2.4% YoY to 332mn units, driven by China sales promotions, new model launches and aggressive trade-ins.</li><li>By brand, Xiaomi/Vivo outperformed peers with 4.8%/12.7% YoY growth in 4Q24, while Apple/Samsung declined 4.1%/2.7% YoY with share loss.</li><li>Looking ahead to 2025, we estimate global smartphone shipments to grow 3% YoY boosted by iPhone 17 cycle, AI integration and Chinese subsidy programs. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

4Q24 global smartphone shipments grew 2.4% YoY to 332mn units, driven by China sales promotions, new model launches and aggressive trade-ins.By brand, Xiaomi/Vivo outperformed peers with 4.8%/12.7% YoY growth in 4Q24, while Apple/Samsung declined 4.1%/2.7% YoY with share loss.Looking ahead to 2025, we estimate global smartphone shipments to grow 3% YoY boosted by iPhone 17 cycle, AI integration and Chinese subsidy programs. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Technology - 4Q24 Global Smartphone Shipments Ahead; Xiaomi/Vivo Outperformed Apple/Samsung

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..</li>
<li>... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.</li>
<li>Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..
... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.
Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond


Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The Hang Seng Internet &amp; IT (HSIII) index represents the top 30 Hong Kong-listed stocks related to internet and information technology businesses.</li>
<li>We expect no index changes in December 2026 but we see capping flows of ~US$112mn one-way.</li>
<li>We expect at least two ADDs/DELs in the next index review which will take place in March 2027. </li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Internet &amp; IT (HSIII) index represents the top 30 Hong Kong-listed stocks related to internet and information technology businesses.
We expect no index changes in December 2026 but we see capping flows of ~US$112mn one-way.
We expect at least two ADDs/DELs in the next index review which will take place in March 2027. 


Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Dec26/Mar27: Two Changes Likely in Mar27; One More Close to the Border

China

BYD Electronic (International) Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells handset components and modules, and provides assembly services for mobile phones. The company offers one-stop product solutions leveraging electronic information, AI, 5G, and IoT technologies, with its business spanning smartphones, computers, new energy vehicles, smart home solutions, and communication equipment. It was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.

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BYD Electronic (285 HK)

Technology - Apple FY1Q25: Beat on IPad/Mac Offsetting China/ IPhone Weakness

Apple (AAPL US, NR) reported FY1Q25 (CY4Q24) revenue of US$124.3bn (+4% YoY) and EPS of US$2.4 (+10% YoY), above market consensus, thanks to better...

CMB International

Technology - 4Q24 Global Smartphone Shipments Ahead; Xiaomi/Vivo Outperformed Apple/Samsung

4Q24 global smartphone shipments grew 2.4% YoY to 332mn units, driven by China sales promotions, new model launches and aggressive trade-ins.

CMB International

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; We are still bullish as Risk-On Signals Dominate. Ideas to buy/stay long in global Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Dec26/Mar27: Two Changes Likely in Mar27; One More Close to the Border

The expected ADDs/DELs list for March 2027 can change until 31st December 2026. There is one potential ADD close to the border. If it outperforms...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 6/52] Express Delivery Showed Social Gift Took off During CNY

​CNY gift giving boosts express delivery growth, BYD to add ADS to low priced cars, Chinese EV makers engage in price wars with potential financing...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Technology - Apple FY1Q25: Beat on IPad/Mac Offsetting China/ IPhone Weakness

Apple (AAPL US, NR) reported FY1Q25 (CY4Q24) revenue of US$124.3bn (+4% YoY) and EPS of US$2.4 (+10% YoY), above market consensus, thanks to better...

CMB International

Technology - 4Q24 Global Smartphone Shipments Ahead; Xiaomi/Vivo Outperformed Apple/Samsung

4Q24 global smartphone shipments grew 2.4% YoY to 332mn units, driven by China sales promotions, new model launches and aggressive trade-ins.

CMB International

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; We are still bullish as Risk-On Signals Dominate. Ideas to buy/stay long in global Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Dec26/Mar27: Two Changes Likely in Mar27; One More Close to the Border

The expected ADDs/DELs list for March 2027 can change until 31st December 2026. There is one potential ADD close to the border. If it outperforms...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

CNY gift giving boosts express delivery growth, BYD to add ADS to low priced cars, Chinese EV makers engage in price wars with potential financing...