House of Market Insights, Market Radar

Market Radar

House of Market Insights

Quick market updates and lot of ideas for your investments from a multi-asset portfolio manager working for a family office.

Quick Market Updates

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>After four difficult months for markets, May is not going very well too. At least for equity investors.</li><li>On Friday, the S&amp;P 500 has been even in bear market for a couple of hours, before to jump in the last final hour.</li><li>What is scaring investors in such a big way? There are several factors, but the newest one is the fear of an incoming global “recession”, as you can even see from the monthly Fund Manager Survey from BofA.</li></ul>

After four difficult months for markets, May is not going very well too. At least for equity investors.On Friday, the S&amp;P 500 has been even in bear market for a couple of hours, before to jump in the last final hour.What is scaring investors in such a big way? There are several factors, but the newest one is the fear of an incoming global “recession”, as you can even see from the monthly Fund Manager Survey from BofA.

Investors fearful of a possible recession

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

European equities have met tactical rally targets from buy levels met on Monday September 20th. Focus is now on buy support levels on a secondary pullback in October but bear divergence may have a downside surprise in store.Eurostoxx 50 dual top at 4,246 stands out and the cap for any near term rise. Eurostoxx 50 met 4,010 tactical long support and overshot our 4,150 bounce target where we reduced in preparation of a harder downside test of 3,900 support in October.DAX has been our strategic long pick from March 2020 and recently met the 14,900-15,200 buy zone. 14,900 stands out as the key level to hold to buy again in October.CAC and IBEX charts are our short picks for downside protection in October.

European equities have met tactical rally targets from buy levels met on Monday September 20th. Focus is now on buy support levels on a secondary pullback in October but bear divergence may have a downside surprise in store.Eurostoxx 50 dual top at 4,246 stands out and the cap for any near term rise. Eurostoxx 50 met 4,010 tactical long support and overshot our 4,150 bounce target where we reduced in preparation of a harder downside test of 3,900 support in October.DAX has been our strategic long pick from March 2020 and recently met the 14,900-15,200 buy zone. 14,900 stands out as the key level to hold to buy again in October.CAC and IBEX charts are our short picks for downside protection in October.

FTSE China A50 Index / Technical Analysis

SPX 4,180 is pivot support for the US cycle and risk inflections in Europe and Asia.  Backing off of 4,205 projection with risk of profit taking ahead of the long weekend is the game plan. RTY and DJI favored shorts with NDX the stronger horse to buy a pullback.A 50 long from 16,500 and add call above 17,700 is playing out nicely and we outlined dip support ahead of reaching for the 19,000 target.Asia short conviction in Japan, Taiwan and Korea.Europe is teetering at DAX and SX5E dual highs for a break or harder pullback sequence with the later favored. DAX is already showing signs of a top failure and typically leads the Eurostoxx 50. MIB is our focus short at 25k. European banks are the sleeper short for a crowded positioning shakeout.

SPX 4,180 is pivot support for the US cycle and risk inflections in Europe and Asia.  Backing off of 4,205 projection with risk of profit taking ahead of the long weekend is the game plan. RTY and DJI favored shorts with NDX the stronger horse to buy a pullback.A 50 long from 16,500 and add call above 17,700 is playing out nicely and we outlined dip support ahead of reaching for the 19,000 target.Asia short conviction in Japan, Taiwan and Korea.Europe is teetering at DAX and SX5E dual highs for a break or harder pullback sequence with the later favored. DAX is already showing signs of a top failure and typically leads the Eurostoxx 50. MIB is our focus short at 25k. European banks are the sleeper short for a crowded positioning shakeout.

Trade Levels in Asia and the Risk Pivot in SPX

Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

<ul>
<li>The notionally bullish trend decline in the euro area unemployment rate looks to be biased by Italy’s extended policy to ban dismissals and Eurostat extrapolating summer improvement. Renewed activity restrictions already appear to have been raising the UR.</li>
<li>A belated rise in unemployment is anyway inevitable as extended furlough schemes end and bankruptcies rise from their artificial extremely depressed levels.</li>
<li>Current output levels imply unemployment rises by 2-3pp for Germany, France, and Italy, or almost 5.5pp for Spain. However, some pain will permanently hit productivity.</li>
</ul>


The notionally bullish trend decline in the euro area unemployment rate looks to be biased by Italy’s extended policy to ban dismissals and Eurostat extrapolating summer improvement. Renewed activity restrictions already appear to have been raising the UR.
A belated rise in unemployment is anyway inevitable as extended furlough schemes end and bankruptcies rise from their artificial extremely depressed levels.
Current output levels imply unemployment rises by 2-3pp for Germany, France, and Italy, or almost 5.5pp for Spain. However, some pain will permanently hit productivity.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Positive COVID vaccine news has since led to bullish inflections in a staggering number of countries, ACWI-US included. Our current outlook is bullish. Buy dips. In this report we outline key technical levels across markets and highlight actionable ideas within our Financials &amp; Energy Sectors.

Positive COVID vaccine news has since led to bullish inflections in a staggering number of countries, ACWI-US included. Our current outlook is bullish. Buy dips. In this report we outline key technical levels across markets and highlight actionable ideas within our Financials &amp; Energy Sectors.

France

The CAC 40, the most widely-used indicator of the Paris market, reflects the performance of the 40 largest equities listed in France, measured by free-float market-capitalization and liquidity. 

CAC 40 (CAC INDEX)

Investors fearful of a possible recession

What is scaring investors in such a big way? There are several factors, but the newest one is the fear of an incoming global “recession”

Market Radar

Europe Re Load Buy Levels

European equities have met tactical rally targets. Focus is now on buy support levels on a secondary pullback in October but bear divergence may...

Thomas Schroeder

Trade Levels in Asia and the Risk Pivot in SPX

A 50 long from 16,500 and add call above 17,700 is playing out nicely and we outlined dip support ahead of reaching for the 19,000 target. SPX...

Thomas Schroeder

EA: Re-Intensifying Labour Market Pains

The notionally bullish trend decline in the euro area unemployment rate looks to be biased by Italy’s extended policy to ban dismissals and...

Phil Rush

Bullish Inflections Around The World

In this report we outline key technical levels across markets and highlight actionable ideas within our Financials & Energy Sectors.

Vermilion Research