Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We received the first inflation evidence from the Euro area already earlier today as the German regional office in Brandenburg released the preliminary October numbers printing at 0.0% MoM.</li><li>That is a very soft reading, fitting hand in glove with our dovish EUR-flation view, and it looks favorable both in unadjusted and seasonally adjusted terms.</li><li>A reasonable expectation (based on seasonal patterns + trend) would be to expect a 0.2-0.3% MoM print in Brandenburg for October, so it strengthens our case for a material dovish surprise.</li></ul>

We received the first inflation evidence from the Euro area already earlier today as the German regional office in Brandenburg released the preliminary October numbers printing at 0.0% MoM.That is a very soft reading, fitting hand in glove with our dovish EUR-flation view, and it looks favorable both in unadjusted and seasonally adjusted terms.A reasonable expectation (based on seasonal patterns + trend) would be to expect a 0.2-0.3% MoM print in Brandenburg for October, so it strengthens our case for a material dovish surprise.

EUR Inflation Watch: A Dovish Surprise in the Making

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI EAFE ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe that a bearish intermediate-term outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrends remain intact on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).</li>
<li>We would turn bullish only on reversals of those downtrends. With that said, a bear market rally has officially begun, something that we have discussed since our Sept.29 Int'l Compass</li>
<li>We expect to see rallies to their respective YTD downtrends (ACWX, EFA, etc.). We highlight buys that are likely to outperform on this bear market rally.</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe that a bearish intermediate-term outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrends remain intact on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).
We would turn bullish only on reversals of those downtrends. With that said, a bear market rally has officially begun, something that we have discussed since our Sept.29 Int'l Compass
We expect to see rallies to their respective YTD downtrends (ACWX, EFA, etc.). We highlight buys that are likely to outperform on this bear market rally.


Bear Market Rally in Progress as DXY, Global Sovereign 10-Yr Yields Fall; Buy Ideas Within Leaders

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,639/1,642 points and the support at 1,613 points (25/200-day EMA) /1,605 points.</li><li>Global equity markets are being pressured by concerns that the Fed will expedite rate hikes to tackle inflation; US bond yields have continued to increase, which is negative to growth stocks.</li><li>Investors expect the Fed to hike the fed funds rate by 0.75% in the upcoming FOMC meeting in September.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,639/1,642 points and the support at 1,613 points (25/200-day EMA) /1,605 points.Global equity markets are being pressured by concerns that the Fed will expedite rate hikes to tackle inflation; US bond yields have continued to increase, which is negative to growth stocks.Investors expect the Fed to hike the fed funds rate by 0.75% in the upcoming FOMC meeting in September.

<ul>
<li>Last week we noted that the bullish reversals had begun, with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), STOXX Europe 50, and SPX the first few to reverse topside their 4-month downtrends.</li>
<li>As we discuss below, bullish reversals are proliferating globally, something that continues to support our belief that global equities are bottoming.</li>
<li>Global growth Sectors continue to gain momentum and have emerged as leadership -- overweight growth. Sectors covered today include Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials -- add exposure</li>
</ul>


Last week we noted that the bullish reversals had begun, with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), STOXX Europe 50, and SPX the first few to reverse topside their 4-month downtrends.
As we discuss below, bullish reversals are proliferating globally, something that continues to support our belief that global equities are bottoming.
Global growth Sectors continue to gain momentum and have emerged as leadership -- overweight growth. Sectors covered today include Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials -- add exposure


Bullish Reversals Proliferate; Stick With Growth; Buy Ideas in Tech, Discretionary, & Industrials

House of Market Insights, Market Radar

Market Radar

House of Market Insights

Quick market updates and lot of ideas for your investments from a multi-asset portfolio manager working for a family office.

Quick Market Updates

<ul><li>After four difficult months for markets, May is not going very well too. At least for equity investors.</li><li>On Friday, the S&amp;P 500 has been even in bear market for a couple of hours, before to jump in the last final hour.</li><li>What is scaring investors in such a big way? There are several factors, but the newest one is the fear of an incoming global “recession”, as you can even see from the monthly Fund Manager Survey from BofA.</li></ul>

After four difficult months for markets, May is not going very well too. At least for equity investors.On Friday, the S&amp;P 500 has been even in bear market for a couple of hours, before to jump in the last final hour.What is scaring investors in such a big way? There are several factors, but the newest one is the fear of an incoming global “recession”, as you can even see from the monthly Fund Manager Survey from BofA.

Investors fearful of a possible recession

France

The CAC 40, the most widely-used indicator of the Paris market, reflects the performance of the 40 largest equities listed in France, measured by free-float market-capitalization and liquidity. 

CAC 40 (CAC INDEX)

EUR Inflation Watch: A Dovish Surprise in the Making

We received the first inflation evidence from the Euro area already earlier today as the German regional office inBrandenburg released the...

Steno Research

Bear Market Rally in Progress as DXY, Global Sovereign 10-Yr Yields Fall; Buy Ideas Within Leaders

Bear Market Rally in Progress as $DXY, Global Sovereign 10-Year Yields Decline. Italy FTSE MIB with a bullish YTD downtrend reversal, Switzerland...

Vermilion Research

Market Outlook

The SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,639/1,642 points and the support at 1,613 points (25/200-day EMA) /1,605...

Krungthai XSpring

Bullish Reversals Proliferate; Stick With Growth; Buy Ideas in Tech, Discretionary, & Industrials

Bullish reversals begun last week in $ACWI, $SPX, and $STOXX Europe 50, with each reversing topside their 4-month downtrends. Now, bullish...

Vermilion Research

Investors fearful of a possible recession

What is scaring investors in such a big way? There are several factors, but the newest one is the fear of an incoming global “recession”

Market Radar