Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Broad global indexes are bumping up against logical downtrend resistance. As a result, our outlook remains cautious and our baseline expectation for continued downward pressure on global equities remains intact. At the same time, we are seeing signs that the worst of the declines may be behind us as global cyclical Sectors show RS improvements while defensive Sectors display early signs of RS deterioration.  In this report we review important technical levels for developed and EM indexes, and highlight a number of attractive opportunities across markets and sectors.

Broad global indexes are bumping up against logical downtrend resistance. As a result, our outlook remains cautious and our baseline expectation for continued downward pressure on global equities remains intact. At the same time, we are seeing signs that the worst of the declines may be behind us as global cyclical Sectors show RS improvements while defensive Sectors display early signs of RS deterioration.  In this report we review important technical levels for developed and EM indexes, and highlight a number of attractive opportunities across markets and sectors.

Global Indexes Approaching Major Resistance

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

We hold a macro bearish view for 2019 but do see risk of a G20 induced December rally spike on an US/China olive branch or staggered deal schedule. Our base case centers around bullish expectations going into the G20 followed by a spike and fade as reality sets in barring a deal which would turn up the volume for a December bounce trade.We outline assets we like to trade higher with stops and targets. EEM, China/HK, Singapore, Europe and the US.Triangle pattern set ups in HSCEI, HSI, CQQQ, Korea and Taiwan with well defined breakout points that imply energy is building for a good tactical rally.USD flirting with a top makes EM's and Asia more attractive on a December rise as the perform bet.No deal would induce downside breaks in outlined triangle patterns. Use these pattern to manage risk.

We hold a macro bearish view for 2019 but do see risk of a G20 induced December rally spike on an US/China olive branch or staggered deal schedule. Our base case centers around bullish expectations going into the G20 followed by a spike and fade as reality sets in barring a deal which would turn up the volume for a December bounce trade.We outline assets we like to trade higher with stops and targets. EEM, China/HK, Singapore, Europe and the US.Triangle pattern set ups in HSCEI, HSI, CQQQ, Korea and Taiwan with well defined breakout points that imply energy is building for a good tactical rally.USD flirting with a top makes EM's and Asia more attractive on a December rise as the perform bet.No deal would induce downside breaks in outlined triangle patterns. Use these pattern to manage risk.

Global markets are overdue for a bounce, But a host of uncertainties including are providing a significant headwind for broad developed and emerging market indexes. Our outlook remains cautious and we expect additional weakness and consolidation across global equity markets.  We offer technical insights on major markets, and highlight a number of actionable bottoms up ideas.

Global markets are overdue for a bounce, But a host of uncertainties including are providing a significant headwind for broad developed and emerging market indexes. Our outlook remains cautious and we expect additional weakness and consolidation across global equity markets.  We offer technical insights on major markets, and highlight a number of actionable bottoms up ideas.

Global Equity Strategy: Still Cautious Despite Oversold Conditions

Deputy Chief Economist

Sharmila Whelan

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

It is a foregone conclusion that the Republicans will lose the House of Representatives. The polls say so. But what if they are wrong?  If the Republicans prevail, the party will consolidate around Mr Trump, giving him free rein to pursue a policy agenda which further disrupts the global trading regime and the free world order. US stock markets would probably rally for a few quarters but then falter as the US and world economy would enter a period of turbulence.

It is a foregone conclusion that the Republicans will lose the House of Representatives. The polls say so. But what if they are wrong?  If the Republicans prevail, the party will consolidate around Mr Trump, giving him free rein to pursue a policy agenda which further disrupts the global trading regime and the free world order. US stock markets would probably rally for a few quarters but then falter as the US and world economy would enter a period of turbulence.

US Mid-Term Elections – What If The Polls Are Wrong?

In our October International Strategy, we provide a synopsis on current market conditions around the globe, and explore the following themes in further detail:<ul>
<li>Supporting our cautious outlook, cyclical and growth Sectors are breaking down on the international front - namely Technology and Consumer Discretionary.  </li>
<li>Overweight Norway.</li>
<li>Price support holding in Japan as RS improves. </li>
<li>Health Care remains attractive, especially defensive pharma Groups within Japan and Europe.</li>
</ul>

In our October International Strategy, we provide a synopsis on current market conditions around the globe, and explore the following themes in further detail:
Supporting our cautious outlook, cyclical and growth Sectors are breaking down on the international front - namely Technology and Consumer Discretionary.  
Overweight Norway.
Price support holding in Japan as RS improves. 
Health Care remains attractive, especially defensive pharma Groups within Japan and Europe.


Global Equity Strategy: Market Deterioration Continues; Cyclical & Growth Sectors Breaking Down

France

The CAC 40, the most widely-used indicator of the Paris market, reflects the performance of the 40 largest equities listed in France, measured by free-float market-capitalization and liquidity. 

CAC 40 (CAC INDEX)

Global Indexes Approaching Major Resistance

Broad global indexes are bumping up against logical downtrend resistance. As a result, our outlook remains cautious and our baseline expectation...

Vermilion Research

Trading into and Out of the G20

We hold a macro bearish view for 2019 but do see risk of a G20 induced December rally spike on an US/China olive branch or staggered deal schedule....

Thomas Schroeder

Global Equity Strategy: Still Cautious Despite Oversold Conditions

Global markets are overdue for a bounce, But a host of uncertainties including are providing a significant headwind for broad developed and...

Vermilion Research

US Mid-Term Elections – What If The Polls Are Wrong?

It is a foregone conclusion that the Republicans will lose the House of Representatives. The polls say so. But what if they are wrong? If the...

Sharmila Whelan

Global Equity Strategy: Market Deterioration Continues; Cyclical & Growth Sectors Breaking Down

In our October International Strategy, we provide a synopsis on current market conditions around the globe, and explore the following themes in...

Vermilion Research