Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The Fed injected some volatility into the market after their December meeting, as they noted an uncertain inflation outlook and the SEP less expected rate cuts for 2025.</li>
<li>We discussed in our latest report (12/23/24 ETF Pathfinder), and continue to believe, that this is a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>Market dynamics remain risk-on, the SPX remains above 5850 (a key support level we have discussed since late-November), mid-caps (IJH) and small-caps (IWM) are above supports at $61.50 and $218</li>
</ul>


The Fed injected some volatility into the market after their December meeting, as they noted an uncertain inflation outlook and the SEP less expected rate cuts for 2025.
We discussed in our latest report (12/23/24 ETF Pathfinder), and continue to believe, that this is a buying opportunity.
Market dynamics remain risk-on, the SPX remains above 5850 (a key support level we have discussed since late-November), mid-caps (IJH) and small-caps (IWM) are above supports at $61.50 and $218


Semiconductors Re-Emerge as Leadership; $SPX $QQQ $IWM Outlook Remains Bullish

<ul>
<li>Over the last two weeks we discussed expectations for an oversold bounce; the bounce has continued. We believe it is possible we've seen the lows for this pause/pullback on SPX.</li>
<li>We see low probability of a meaningful correction if SPX is above 4300-4325 (1.5-year support), but would not be surprised to see another month+ of consolidation between 4325 and 4600.</li>
<li>Shorter-Term, as long as 4460 short-term support holds, we expect a test of 4600. Today we highlight several buys within Energy.</li>
</ul>


Over the last two weeks we discussed expectations for an oversold bounce; the bounce has continued. We believe it is possible we've seen the lows for this pause/pullback on SPX.
We see low probability of a meaningful correction if SPX is above 4300-4325 (1.5-year support), but would not be surprised to see another month+ of consolidation between 4325 and 4600.
Shorter-Term, as long as 4460 short-term support holds, we expect a test of 4600. Today we highlight several buys within Energy.


Bounce Continues; Small-Caps Test 3.5-Year RS Lows; Nasdaq/NYSE Breadth Improving; Buys in Energy

Financial Select Sector SPDR F / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The market remains in bear market rally mode, and our price target remains the 200-day MAs on the SPX and Russell 2000, as discussed in last week's Compass (Oct. 25).</li>
<li>Longer-Term, this is still a bear market until the S&amp;P 500 and IWM can break above their respective YTD downtrends/200-day MAs, and markets could easily test their lows again.</li>
<li>With that said, there are signs that suggest breakouts above YTD downtrends/200-day MAs could be coming. Catalysts include the FOMC announcement on Wednesday, followed by midterm elections on Nov. 8.</li>
</ul>


The market remains in bear market rally mode, and our price target remains the 200-day MAs on the SPX and Russell 2000, as discussed in last week's Compass (Oct. 25).
Longer-Term, this is still a bear market until the S&amp;P 500 and IWM can break above their respective YTD downtrends/200-day MAs, and markets could easily test their lows again.
With that said, there are signs that suggest breakouts above YTD downtrends/200-day MAs could be coming. Catalysts include the FOMC announcement on Wednesday, followed by midterm elections on Nov. 8.


Bear Market Rally Continues; Financials/XLF Reversing YTD Downtrend; Small-Caps at 11-Month RS Highs

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally we have been discussing since our Sept. 27 Compass report has begun.</li>
<li>Over half of the Sectors and all the major indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA, and S&amp;P 600 Small Caps) display bullish 2+ month inflections.</li>
<li>As referenced last week, we expect the aforementioned indexes to rally to their 200-day MAs; longer-term, this is still a bear market until they can break above their 200-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally we have been discussing since our Sept. 27 Compass report has begun.
Over half of the Sectors and all the major indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA, and S&amp;P 600 Small Caps) display bullish 2+ month inflections.
As referenced last week, we expect the aforementioned indexes to rally to their 200-day MAs; longer-term, this is still a bear market until they can break above their 200-day MAs.


Another Bear Market Rally Begins; Indexes and Sectors With Bullish 2+ Month Inflections

Last week we noted that in order for us to turn bullish on the broad market, we need to see breakouts to YTD highs in small-caps (IWM), Financials (XLF), Energy (XOP), and equal-weighted Discretionary (RCD). We now have the breakout we needed in Energy (RYE, XOP), but the other areas are still consolidating. Therefore, we still see a mixed market and we remain neutral yet constructive overall.Stocks highlighted: XOP, WTI Crude Oil, IWD, IWM, S&amp;P 500, Equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW), HLT, SEAS, DRI, PLAY, COP, EOG, PXD, OXY, DVN, CLR, CTRA, FANG, MRO, XEC, APA, AR, MUR, RRC, SWN, MTDR, PDCE, SM, BSM, CPE, VNOM, LPI, DMLP, CHX, WHD, NOA, TTI, NR, EXTN, NGS, FET, and CCLP

Last week we noted that in order for us to turn bullish on the broad market, we need to see breakouts to YTD highs in small-caps (IWM), Financials (XLF), Energy (XOP), and equal-weighted Discretionary (RCD). We now have the breakout we needed in Energy (RYE, XOP), but the other areas are still consolidating. Therefore, we still see a mixed market and we remain neutral yet constructive overall.Stocks highlighted: XOP, WTI Crude Oil, IWD, IWM, S&amp;P 500, Equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW), HLT, SEAS, DRI, PLAY, COP, EOG, PXD, OXY, DVN, CLR, CTRA, FANG, MRO, XEC, APA, AR, MUR, RRC, SWN, MTDR, PDCE, SM, BSM, CPE, VNOM, LPI, DMLP, CHX, WHD, NOA, TTI, NR, EXTN, NGS, FET, and CCLP

Upgrading Energy To Overweight; WTI Crude Oil and XOP With Major Long-Term Breakouts

United States

Cactus, Inc. manufactures control equipment. The Company offers wellhead systems, valves, and flow control products. Cactus markets its products worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Cactus Inc (WHD US)

Semiconductors Re-Emerge as Leadership; $SPX $QQQ $IWM Outlook Remains Bullish

Semiconductors Re-Emerge as Leadership $SMH $TSM $NVDA; $SPX $QQQ $IWM Outlook Remains Bullish Despite Recent Consolidation. Market Dynamics Remain...

Vermilion Research

Bounce Continues; Small-Caps Test 3.5-Year RS Lows; Nasdaq/NYSE Breadth Improving; Buys in Energy

Expectations over the past two weeks for an oversold bounce in $SPX have played out. 4300-4325 (1.5-year support) remains solid floor, but could...

Vermilion Research

Bear Market Rally Continues; Financials/XLF Reversing YTD Downtrend; Small-Caps at 11-Month RS Highs

The market is still in bear market rally mode, and our price target remains the 200-day MAs on the $SPX and $IWM. $XLF YTD downtrend reversal, $XLV...

Vermilion Research

Another Bear Market Rally Begins; Indexes and Sectors With Bullish 2+ Month Inflections

The bear market rally we have been discussing since Sept. 27 has begun, with over half of the Sectors and all the major indexes $SPX $QQQ $NDX...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Energy To Overweight; WTI Crude Oil and XOP With Major Long-Term Breakouts

Recent developments lead us to believe that Energy is likely to outperform moving forward: WTI crude oil is breaking above $77, and the RYE and XOP...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)