Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Financial Select Sector SPDR F / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Fitch's U.S. credit downgrade has done little to change the intermediate-term trend; we continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for the major equity indexes.</li>
<li>We remain bullish on the S&amp;P 500, and we expect to see support at its 50-day MA moving forward (currently 4415).</li>
<li>Short term supports we are watching include 4460-4475 on the S&amp;P 500, $371.50 on the $QQQ, and $190-193 on the $IWM.</li>
</ul>


Fitch's U.S. credit downgrade has done little to change the intermediate-term trend; we continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for the major equity indexes.
We remain bullish on the S&amp;P 500, and we expect to see support at its 50-day MA moving forward (currently 4415).
Short term supports we are watching include 4460-4475 on the S&amp;P 500, $371.50 on the $QQQ, and $190-193 on the $IWM.


Upgrading Financials to Market Weight; Shift to Value Continues. Buys in Energy, Financials, Mfg.

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>We believe equity bulls run the risk of a credit event which could spark a bear market.</li>
<li>Market-Based indicators used by technicians have failed to anticipate and discount well-telegraphed events such as the GFC and the start of the Russo-Ukraine War.</li>
<li>If you want to be bullish, we wouldn’t argue with you. Just be careful.</li>
</ul>


We believe equity bulls run the risk of a credit event which could spark a bear market.
Market-Based indicators used by technicians have failed to anticipate and discount well-telegraphed events such as the GFC and the start of the Russo-Ukraine War.
If you want to be bullish, we wouldn’t argue with you. Just be careful.


Will A Credit Event Derail the Equity Bull?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hi everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning / sentiment overview, which will be delivered to you right as firefighters have hopefully put out the fire at the old exchange building in Copenhagen..</li><li>Markets have started the week off where they left last week, with the USD wrecking ball continuing to prevail, posing headwinds for equity and fixed income markets as Fed pricing has more or less turned upside down lately.</li><li>We generally positioned for this repricing of USD fixed income, but were caught wrongfooted in a few trades along the way admittedly.</li></ul>

Hi everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning / sentiment overview, which will be delivered to you right as firefighters have hopefully put out the fire at the old exchange building in Copenhagen..Markets have started the week off where they left last week, with the USD wrecking ball continuing to prevail, posing headwinds for equity and fixed income markets as Fed pricing has more or less turned upside down lately.We generally positioned for this repricing of USD fixed income, but were caught wrongfooted in a few trades along the way admittedly.

Positioning Watch – Volatility Is Back, but Markets Still Lean into USD Duration.. God Knows Why..

<ul>
<li>We've discussed for months that we'll need to see SPX and NDX (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs/21-dayEMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days in order to get more cautious.</li>
<li>Today (Tuesday) marks 3 consecutive days as the DXY climbs to test major $106 resistance, and amid 10- and 30-year Treasury yields breaking above long-term resistances. Caution is warranted.</li>
<li>Still, in order for there to be a meaningful pullback, important 2-month supports <em>that are currently being tested</em> would need to break, including 4983-5050 on SPX and $425-$433 on QQQ.</li>
</ul>


We've discussed for months that we'll need to see SPX and NDX (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs/21-dayEMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days in order to get more cautious.
Today (Tuesday) marks 3 consecutive days as the DXY climbs to test major $106 resistance, and amid 10- and 30-year Treasury yields breaking above long-term resistances. Caution is warranted.
Still, in order for there to be a meaningful pullback, important 2-month supports that are currently being tested would need to break, including 4983-5050 on SPX and $425-$433 on QQQ.


The Pullback Finally Begins; SPX and NDX Testing 2-Month Supports; Market Dynamics Shifting

<ul><li>The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt up.</li><li>Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch, where we assess the tradeable themes and discuss our portfolio composition.</li><li>In this revamped version of the series, we will touch upon the developments in our Macro Alpha Portfolio and our Digital Assets Portfolio.</li></ul>

The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt up.Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch, where we assess the tradeable themes and discuss our portfolio composition.In this revamped version of the series, we will touch upon the developments in our Macro Alpha Portfolio and our Digital Assets Portfolio.

Portfolio Watch: What if We Add a Rate Cut to This Fire..

United States

Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The Fund's objective is to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond to the performance of The Financial Select Sector.  The Index includes financial services firms whose business' range from investment management to commercial & business banking.

Financial Select Sector SPDR F (XLF US)

Upgrading Financials to Market Weight; Shift to Value Continues. Buys in Energy, Financials, Mfg.

Upgrading Financials $XLF to Market Weight; The Shift to Value Continues. Short term supports we are watching include 4460-4475 on the $SPX,...

Vermilion Research

Will A Credit Event Derail the Equity Bull?

We believe equity bulls run the risk of a credit event which could spark a bear market. Market-based indicators used by technicians have failed to...

Cam Hui

Positioning Watch – Volatility Is Back, but Markets Still Lean into USD Duration.. God Knows Why..

Hi everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning / sentiment overview, which will be delivered to you right as firefighters have hopefully...

Steno Research

The Pullback Finally Begins; SPX and NDX Testing 2-Month Supports; Market Dynamics Shifting

The Pullback Finally Begins; $SPX and $NDX $QQQ Testing 2-Month Supports at 4983-5050 and $425-$433 (2/22/24 gap supports); Market Dynamics...

Vermilion Research

Portfolio Watch: What if We Add a Rate Cut to This Fire..

The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt...

Steno Research