Steno Research

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>With the turn of October, it’s time for our monthly evaluation of both the present and coming month’s macroeconomic conditions, in which we weigh risks against rewards.</li><li>In order to do so, we employ both our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.</li><li>In combination, these tools provide an empirically rooted portfolio allocation, given the identified macro conditions and drivers in financial markets.</li></ul>

With the turn of October, it’s time for our monthly evaluation of both the present and coming month’s macroeconomic conditions, in which we weigh risks against rewards.In order to do so, we employ both our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.In combination, these tools provide an empirically rooted portfolio allocation, given the identified macro conditions and drivers in financial markets.

Macro Regime Indicator: Heavy Long in Cyclical FX

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The CAD had a solid week last week, rising over 1% against the USD in its best weekly performance since July.</li><li>The origin of the CAD rebound was clearly more of a USD-negative story (perception of Fed dovishness, softer economic data and lower US rates) than a CAD-positive one.</li><li>Indeed, Canadian yields have generally tracked US rates lower in the past few days, keeping US/Canada spreads wide (or wider) along the curve. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The CAD had a solid week last week, rising over 1% against the USD in its best weekly performance since July.The origin of the CAD rebound was clearly more of a USD-negative story (perception of Fed dovishness, softer economic data and lower US rates) than a CAD-positive one.Indeed, Canadian yields have generally tracked US rates lower in the past few days, keeping US/Canada spreads wide (or wider) along the curve. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - CAD Rebound May Have Traction

<ul><li>FX Market Update—Markets are generally calmer ahead of this morning’s data points.</li><li>Stocks are positive in Europe, but gains are modest, while US equity futures are very narrowly mixed after disappointing AAPL results last night.</li><li>Major bond markets are mostly weaker on the day but yields are showing minimal gains. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—Markets are generally calmer ahead of this morning’s data points.Stocks are positive in Europe, but gains are modest, while US equity futures are very narrowly mixed after disappointing AAPL results last night.Major bond markets are mostly weaker on the day but yields are showing minimal gains. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>This week’s CFTC data show virtually no overall change in market positioning in the week through Tuesday, with investors likely sidelined ahead of the FOMC decision the following day.</li><li>Aggregated positioning across the major currencies we follow here shows NonCommercial (speculative) traders cutting net USD longs by a bare USD24mn, leaving the aggregate position at a little over USD9bn.</li><li>Positioning trends across most major currencies are veering towards neutral. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

This week’s CFTC data show virtually no overall change in market positioning in the week through Tuesday, with investors likely sidelined ahead of the FOMC decision the following day.Aggregated positioning across the major currencies we follow here shows NonCommercial (speculative) traders cutting net USD longs by a bare USD24mn, leaving the aggregate position at a little over USD9bn.Positioning trends across most major currencies are veering towards neutral. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Little Change in USD Positioning

<ul><li>It feels like something major changed in the markets this week as US yields tumbled and the USD fell.</li><li>The FOMC result was pretty much exactly what markets expected.</li><li>The policy statement was virtually unchanged and Chairman Powell’s press conference was evenhanded until markets latched on to subtle hints that the Fed might be done tightening. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

It feels like something major changed in the markets this week as US yields tumbled and the USD fell.The FOMC result was pretty much exactly what markets expected.The policy statement was virtually unchanged and Chairman Powell’s press conference was evenhanded until markets latched on to subtle hints that the Fed might be done tightening. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CAD Weekly Outlook - CAD Rebound May Extend on Risk Rally

Canada

The Canadian dollar is the official currency of Canada. 

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Macro Regime Indicator: Heavy Long in Cyclical FX

We anticipate consistent QT in both USDs and EURs in the forthcoming month. On a 3-month time frame, and given the assumed conditions, our model...

Steno Research

FX Snapshot - CAD Rebound May Have Traction

The origin of the CAD rebound was clearly more of a USD-negative story (perception of Fed dovishness, softer economic data and lower US rates) than...

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Remains Soft into NFP

Stocks are positive in Europe, but gains are modest, while US equity futures are very narrowly mixed after disappointing AAPL results last night.

Scotiabank

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Little Change in USD Positioning

This week’s CFTC data show virtually no overall change in market positioning in the week through Tuesday, with investors likely sidelined ahead of...

Scotiabank

CAD Weekly Outlook - CAD Rebound May Extend on Risk Rally

It feels like something major changed in the markets this week as US yields tumbled and the USD fell. The FOMC result was pretty much exactly what...

Scotiabank

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