Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Market pricing suggests nearly a 50% chance of a 50 basis point cut by the Fed, leading to uncertainty in the market.</li><li>The direction of the Fed's policy is clear regardless of the cut amount, with aggressive easing likely to continue throughout the year.</li><li>Concerns about labor market weakness in Canada have prompted the Bank of Canada to shift its focus from inflation to potential weakening in economic activity.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Market pricing suggests nearly a 50% chance of a 50 basis point cut by the Fed, leading to uncertainty in the market.The direction of the Fed's policy is clear regardless of the cut amount, with aggressive easing likely to continue throughout the year.Concerns about labor market weakness in Canada have prompted the Bank of Canada to shift its focus from inflation to potential weakening in economic activity.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: Implications from FOMC and other G10 central banks

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The efficient market hypothesis precludes the persistence of seasonal trends in financial markets in theory, but studies have shown that calendar regularities do appear to persist over the long run in equities, for example (think “sell in May and go away…”), but also currencies.</li><li>FX traders are perhaps a little more dubious about these trends because while they do appear to persist over time, they are not consistent and might not be considered statistically significant.</li><li>With that cautionary note in mind, it is still worth noting the seasonality effect in FX.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The efficient market hypothesis precludes the persistence of seasonal trends in financial markets in theory, but studies have shown that calendar regularities do appear to persist over the long run in equities, for example (think “sell in May and go away…”), but also currencies.FX traders are perhaps a little more dubious about these trends because while they do appear to persist over time, they are not consistent and might not be considered statistically significant.With that cautionary note in mind, it is still worth noting the seasonality effect in FX.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - ‘Tis the Season for a Softer USDCAD

<ul><li>Markets reacted somewhat oddly to the BoC policy decision.</li><li>While the policy statement removed the wording around the suggestion that policy could be tightened further, that is hardly a surprising development, given that the last rate hike came in July.</li><li>There were few other dovish concessions in the statement, which rather laboured on about inflation and, especially, the persistence of underlying inflation. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Markets reacted somewhat oddly to the BoC policy decision.While the policy statement removed the wording around the suggestion that policy could be tightened further, that is hardly a surprising development, given that the last rate hike came in July.There were few other dovish concessions in the statement, which rather laboured on about inflation and, especially, the persistence of underlying inflation. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - US Data May Shift USDCAD Range

<ul><li>The USD is running into the end of the year on a soft note.</li><li>Seasonal trends pointed that way but CAD gains have been bolstered by the stronger risk appetite, as markets price in Fed rate cuts, and firmer industrial metals the correlation table suggests.</li><li>CAD gains are running ahead of fair value but, after a sustained period of undervaluation, that trend may persist. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is running into the end of the year on a soft note.Seasonal trends pointed that way but CAD gains have been bolstered by the stronger risk appetite, as markets price in Fed rate cuts, and firmer industrial metals the correlation table suggests.CAD gains are running ahead of fair value but, after a sustained period of undervaluation, that trend may persist. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>High beta currencies have done well over the past week.</li><li>A crack in the Fed’s hawkishness at last Wednesday’s FOMC boosted risk appetite and lifted pro-cyclical currencies.</li><li>Top of the pack over the last five trading sessions is the NOK (helped by the jump in Brent around Red Sea focus, for sure), followed by the ZAR, AUD, SEK and NZD.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

High beta currencies have done well over the past week.A crack in the Fed’s hawkishness at last Wednesday’s FOMC boosted risk appetite and lifted pro-cyclical currencies.Top of the pack over the last five trading sessions is the NOK (helped by the jump in Brent around Red Sea focus, for sure), followed by the ZAR, AUD, SEK and NZD.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - Stretched Valuation Does Not Preclude More USDCAD Losses

Canada

The Canadian dollar is the official currency of Canada. 

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CAD (USDCAD CURNCY)

Global FX: Implications from FOMC and other G10 central banks

Market pricing and economist forecasts indicate a significant chance of a 50 basis point cut by the Fed, while Canada's labor market weakness is...

At Any Rate

FX Snapshot - ‘Tis the Season for a Softer USDCAD

The efficient market hypothesis precludes the persistence of seasonal trends in financial markets in theory, but studies have shown that calendar...

Scotiabank

FX Snapshot - US Data May Shift USDCAD Range

While the policy statement removed the wording around the suggestion that policy could be tightened further, that is hardly a surprising...

Scotiabank

CAD Weekly Outlook - Merry CADmas

The USD is running into the end of the year on a soft note. Seasonal trends pointed that way but CAD gains have been bolstered by the stronger risk...

Scotiabank

FX Snapshot - Stretched Valuation Does Not Preclude More USDCAD Losses

High beta currencies have done well over the past week. A crack in the Fed’s hawkishness at last Wednesday’s FOMC boosted risk appetite and lifted...

Scotiabank

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