External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

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External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>USD edged off its lows Tuesday, perhaps reflecting the concerns I noted here yesterday that the sell-off had extended too far, too quickly.</li><li>There was little to support the USD from yesterday’s US data reports. Slower consumer demand and weaker industrial activity bolstered US slowdown expectations.</li><li>There was, however, a Market News report suggesting that Fed policymakers are concerned that rate hikes are feeding into the economy more quickly than anticipated; in other words, the fuller impact of rate hikes is already being felt and it has not been enough to slow the economy sufficient to bear down on prices. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

USD edged off its lows Tuesday, perhaps reflecting the concerns I noted here yesterday that the sell-off had extended too far, too quickly.There was little to support the USD from yesterday’s US data reports. Slower consumer demand and weaker industrial activity bolstered US slowdown expectations.There was, however, a Market News report suggesting that Fed policymakers are concerned that rate hikes are feeding into the economy more quickly than anticipated; in other words, the fuller impact of rate hikes is already being felt and it has not been enough to slow the economy sufficient to bear down on prices. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul>
<li>The CAD got the lift I was looking for from this week’s events.</li>
<li>US CPI came in lower than expected and the Bank of Canada raised interest rates 25bps.</li>
<li>The broader import of the slide in US CPI is a clearer shift in the narrative surrounding the USD—the fact that the peak in the Fed tightening cycle is now very close, perhaps just a couple of weeks away. </li>
</ul>
<p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>


The CAD got the lift I was looking for from this week’s events.
US CPI came in lower than expected and the Bank of Canada raised interest rates 25bps.
The broader import of the slide in US CPI is a clearer shift in the narrative surrounding the USD—the fact that the peak in the Fed tightening cycle is now very close, perhaps just a couple of weeks away. 

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CAD Weekly Outlook – CAD’s Grind Higher Should Extend

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>CFTC positioning data show a second successive improvement in speculative USD sentiment but the improvement is limited (less than USD500mn) and Speculative Accounts retain a net short USD position on aggregate of USD12.5bn.</li><li>This is little changed over the past three weeks, perhaps reflecting light, summer trading. Real Money Accounts retain a sizeable aggregate USD short position (USD38bn, up a little under USD2bn on the week) while Leveraged Accounts reversed a small, aggregate USD short position to a minor net long (USD5bn).</li><li>These hedge fund traders have tended to hold a similarly sized net USD long on aggregate since March.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

CFTC positioning data show a second successive improvement in speculative USD sentiment but the improvement is limited (less than USD500mn) and Speculative Accounts retain a net short USD position on aggregate of USD12.5bn.This is little changed over the past three weeks, perhaps reflecting light, summer trading. Real Money Accounts retain a sizeable aggregate USD short position (USD38bn, up a little under USD2bn on the week) while Leveraged Accounts reversed a small, aggregate USD short position to a minor net long (USD5bn).These hedge fund traders have tended to hold a similarly sized net USD long on aggregate since March.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculative USD Sentiment Improves Slightly

<div><div><div><ul><li>The Bank of Canada duly raised its key policy rate 25bps today, to 5.00%.</li><li>The accompanying MPR highlighted stronger than expected growth momentum and pushed back the timeline for restoring inflation to the 2% goal.</li><li>Strong immigration was highlighted as one factor in stronger than expected domestic demand and a resilient housing market.</li></ul></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The Bank of Canada duly raised its key policy rate 25bps today, to 5.00%.The accompanying MPR highlighted stronger than expected growth momentum and pushed back the timeline for restoring inflation to the 2% goal.Strong immigration was highlighted as one factor in stronger than expected domestic demand and a resilient housing market.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

<p>As the US dollar has come off the peak, EM currencies have benefited, including Asian currencies. The Thai baht is among the currencies that have performed well lately as it has been supported by easing of curbs on falling coronavirus cases, signs of tourism picking up, raising of the debt ceiling to create space for further fiscal stimulus, and the central bank turning less dovish. While there is ample room for the baht to make up its lag with the rest of EM, the currency's recovery is likely to be gradual and marked by volatility.</p><p>Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.</p>

As the US dollar has come off the peak, EM currencies have benefited, including Asian currencies. The Thai baht is among the currencies that have performed well lately as it has been supported by easing of curbs on falling coronavirus cases, signs of tourism picking up, raising of the debt ceiling to create space for further fiscal stimulus, and the central bank turning less dovish. While there is ample room for the baht to make up its lag with the rest of EM, the currency's recovery is likely to be gradual and marked by volatility.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Is the Thai Baht Finally Turning?

Canada

The Canadian dollar is the official currency of Canada. 

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CAD (USDCAD CURNCY)

FX Daily - GBP Tumbles on Lower UK CPI

USD edged off its lows Tuesday, perhaps reflecting the concerns I noted here yesterday that the sell-off had extended too far, too quickly.

Scotiabank

CAD Weekly Outlook – CAD’s Grind Higher Should Extend

The CAD got the lift I was looking for from this week’s events. US CPI came in lower than expected and the Bank of Canada raised interest rates 25bps.

Scotiabank

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculative USD Sentiment Improves Slightly

CFTC positioning data show a second successive improvement in speculative USD sentiment but the improvement is limited (less than USD500mn)

Scotiabank

FX Snapshot - CAD Gains Should Extend

The accompanying MPR highlighted stronger than expected growth momentum and pushed back the timeline for restoring inflation to the 2% goal.

Scotiabank

FX Dashboard: Is the Thai Baht Finally Turning?

The Thai baht has performed well lately on the easing of curbs and tourism picking up. While there is ample room to make up its previous lag, the...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

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