Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

J&T Global Express  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we examine <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH)</a>'s operation in SE Asia, where it's the region's dominant player, with market share of 22.5% by volume </li>
<li>We profile SE Asian demand and supply and compare these to the development of China's express industry, acknowledging the key role <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a> has played there</li>
<li>We also present a framework for estimating the value of J&amp;T's SE Asian operation by identifying the most appropriate comps and EV valuation multiples</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we examine J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH)'s operation in SE Asia, where it's the region's dominant player, with market share of 22.5% by volume 
We profile SE Asian demand and supply and compare these to the development of China's express industry, acknowledging the key role Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) has played there
We also present a framework for estimating the value of J&amp;T's SE Asian operation by identifying the most appropriate comps and EV valuation multiples


J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 2: SE Asia Operation | Demand, Supply Profiles | Valuation Approach

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Down 66% from its 2021 IPO price, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/full-truck-alliance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33429:1" rel="noopener">Full Truck Alliance (YMM US)</a> has been a loser for investors, though we would argue its underlying performance on fundamentals has been mixed</li>
<li>We believe FTA's narrow focus on expanding its lead in China's spot, inter-city FTL trucking market blinds management to the broader role it must pursue to ensure long-term growth</li>
<li>FTA should aggressively funnel users into its Transaction Commission segment and invest in building a Transportation Management Software offering to attract and retain customers</li>
</ul>


Down 66% from its 2021 IPO price, Full Truck Alliance (YMM US) has been a loser for investors, though we would argue its underlying performance on fundamentals has been mixed
We believe FTA's narrow focus on expanding its lead in China's spot, inter-city FTL trucking market blinds management to the broader role it must pursue to ensure long-term growth
FTA should aggressively funnel users into its Transaction Commission segment and invest in building a Transportation Management Software offering to attract and retain customers


Full Truck Alliance: Currently Less Than 'Full Loaded', but Issues Are Fully Fixable

<ul>
<li>In this insight we cover recent earnings results, revenue mix, YTD trends</li>
<li>Fluctuating performance of its international segment impacted FY23 and Q124</li>
<li>Improving international segment could boost overall momentum in Q2-Q4 2024</li>
</ul>


In this insight we cover recent earnings results, revenue mix, YTD trends
Fluctuating performance of its international segment impacted FY23 and Q124
Improving international segment could boost overall momentum in Q2-Q4 2024


SF Holding Pre-IPO: FY23, Q124 Results Reviewed | Sales Mix Impacts | Recent Monthly Revenue Trend

<ul>
<li>CaiNiao and JD Logistics have grown far faster than their parents' platforms in recent years, and also far faster than "plain vanilla" Chinese express companies</li>
<li>CaiNiao, JD Logistics, and SF Holding enjoy more avenues to growth than just the continued gradual expansion of China's domestic e-commerce activity</li>
<li>In the medium-term, we believe shares of market leader SF Holding can outperform a basket of shares from SF's "plain vanilla" peers in express</li>
</ul>


CaiNiao and JD Logistics have grown far faster than their parents' platforms in recent years, and also far faster than "plain vanilla" Chinese express companies
CaiNiao, JD Logistics, and SF Holding enjoy more avenues to growth than just the continued gradual expansion of China's domestic e-commerce activity
In the medium-term, we believe shares of market leader SF Holding can outperform a basket of shares from SF's "plain vanilla" peers in express


CaiNiao & SF Holding Enjoy More Avenues to Growth Than "Plain Vanilla" Express Companies

<ul>
<li>Kerry Logistics Network will pay a special dividend in the form of KEX shares</li>
<li>This will trigger a general offer by SF Holding for all KEX shares at THB 5.50</li>
<li>Why is SF Holding doing this, &amp; how could its int'l express business change?</li>
</ul>


Kerry Logistics Network will pay a special dividend in the form of KEX shares
This will trigger a general offer by SF Holding for all KEX shares at THB 5.50
Why is SF Holding doing this, &amp; how could its int'l express business change?


Kerry Logistics Network to Pay Dividend in Form of KEX Shares | SF Holding's Role & Objectives

Hong Kong

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network Ltd. operates as an investment company. The Company provides equity investments, investment management, and other services. Cainiao Smart Logistics Network is located in Hong Kong.

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network (1437124D HK)

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Cainiao Smart Logistics Network (1437124D HK)

J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 2: SE Asia Operation | Demand, Supply Profiles | Valuation Approach

We're pulling this insight out of the archives in light of J&T's updated filing and its decision to begin pushing forward with its IPO in Hong Kong...

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Full Truck Alliance: Currently Less Than 'Full Loaded', but Issues Are Fully Fixable

FTA's shares are down 66% vs their IPO price, but underlying performance has been mixed. To ensure long-term growth, FTA should follow our two-part...

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SF Holding Pre-IPO: FY23, Q124 Results Reviewed | Sales Mix Impacts | Recent Monthly Revenue Trend

In this insight we review SF Holding's recent results, analyze sales mix and its impact on margins, and explain trends in recent monthly sales growth.

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CaiNiao & SF Holding Enjoy More Avenues to Growth Than "Plain Vanilla" Express Companies

On Sunday June 2, SF Holding announced via a notice at the Shenzhen Stock Exchange that it plans to sell up to 625 mn new shares in a secondary...

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Kerry Logistics Network to Pay Dividend in Form of KEX Shares | SF Holding's Role & Objectives

On Sunday June 2, SF Holding announced via a notice at the Shenzhen Stock Exchange that it plans to sell up to 625 mn new shares in a secondary...

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