J Capital Research

Independent Insight Provider

J Capital Research, a U.S. company, publishes highly diligenced research reports on publicly traded companies, relying on deep, on-the-ground primary research. J Capital has particular expertise in the Chinese market, but we look at over-valued companies throughout the world. As an activist short- and long-research shop, when we form a clear view, we publish free, public reports to inform the investing public and never disguise our identity. We believe the internet has afforded an opportunity to small, unaffiliated investors to leapfrog the big banks, with their conflicts of interest, and obtain unbiased information on traded companies. We pride ourselves on our independence and the quality of our work. We hope the work speaks for itself.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Thanks to a non-binding offer for the company from an undisclosed buyer, Calavo Growers’ (NASDAQ: CVGW) stock has only slightly under-performed the market since we first wrote about the company in early December 2024.</li><li>The share price of this provider of avocados and other fruits has not, in the face of impending tariffs and threats to what is probably an undocumented migrant workforce of avocado and tomato picker/packers in the U.S., collapsed.</li><li>The troubles this company is facing are not going away. We expect lower sales and lower profits, which are likely to impact the share price, among other things by inducing the potential offeror to walk away or revise its offer price.</li></ul>

Thanks to a non-binding offer for the company from an undisclosed buyer, Calavo Growers’ (NASDAQ: CVGW) stock has only slightly under-performed the market since we first wrote about the company in early December 2024.The share price of this provider of avocados and other fruits has not, in the face of impending tariffs and threats to what is probably an undocumented migrant workforce of avocado and tomato picker/packers in the U.S., collapsed.The troubles this company is facing are not going away. We expect lower sales and lower profits, which are likely to impact the share price, among other things by inducing the potential offeror to walk away or revise its offer price.

The Equity Dispatch #46: CVGW: Hanging by a Thread

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Financial Select Sector SPDR F / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6780-6824 on SPX and $255-$257 on IWM continue to hold. With that said, we continue to see deterioration...</li>
<li>...in market dynamics that has us concerned of a deeper pullback, potentially to 6720-6776, 6690, or 6480-6520 on SPX, but 6780-6824 support would need to break first</li>
<li>Financials (XLF) and Discretionary (XLY) are violating crucial price and RS supports, and we are downgrading both Sectors to underweight</li>
</ul>


We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6780-6824 on SPX and $255-$257 on IWM continue to hold. With that said, we continue to see deterioration...
...in market dynamics that has us concerned of a deeper pullback, potentially to 6720-6776, 6690, or 6480-6520 on SPX, but 6780-6824 support would need to break first
Financials (XLF) and Discretionary (XLY) are violating crucial price and RS supports, and we are downgrading both Sectors to underweight


Defensives Still Leading; Deeper Pullback?; Downgrading Financials and Discretionary to Underweight

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynch-group-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36359:1" rel="noopener">Lynch Group Holdings (LGL AU)</a> IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tpg-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35361:1" rel="noopener">TPG Inc (TPG US)</a>’s A$2.155 offer fair and reasonable as it is within its A$1.93 to A$2.27 valuation range.</li>
<li>The offer is conditional on shareholder approval. The vote remains low-risk as the majority of substantial shareholders are supportive.   </li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a 9 December payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.7%/5.1%.</li>
</ul>


The Lynch Group Holdings (LGL AU) IE considers TPG Inc (TPG US)’s A$2.155 offer fair and reasonable as it is within its A$1.93 to A$2.27 valuation range.
The offer is conditional on shareholder approval. The vote remains low-risk as the majority of substantial shareholders are supportive.   
The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a 9 December payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.7%/5.1%.


Lynch Group (LGL AU): Scheme Vote on 21 November

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 3 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a>, 8 changes for the S&amp;P Midcap400 Index and 15 changes for the S&amp;P SmallCap600 Index at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dell-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32189:1" rel="noopener">Dell Technologies (DELL US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/palantir-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27728:1" rel="noopener">Palantir Technologies (PLTR US)</a> were finally added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> and there is huge size to trade in the stocks.</li>
<li>There will also be big buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> following a float increase driven by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berkshire-hathaway-inc-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1044:1" rel="noopener">Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl A (BRK/A US)</a> selling last quarter.</li>
</ul>


There are 3 changes for the S&amp;P 500 INDEX, 8 changes for the S&amp;P Midcap400 Index and 15 changes for the S&amp;P SmallCap600 Index at the September rebalance.

Dell Technologies (DELL US) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR US) were finally added to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) and there is huge size to trade in the stocks.
There will also be big buying in Apple (AAPL US) following a float increase driven by Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl A (BRK/A US) selling last quarter.


S&P500/400/600 Index Rebalance: Dell, Palantir Make It (Finally!); Apple Upweight

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Apollo Global Management  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the September 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect two regular changes during September. More interestingly, a couple of SP500 members are working on spin-offs which could trigger some high-impact deletions over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the September 2024 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes during September. More interestingly, a couple of SP500 members are working on spin-offs which could trigger some high-impact deletions over the next few months.


Sep24 S&P500 Index Rebal - Two Changes Expected; $6bn One-Way Flow and Two Spinoffs?

United States

Calavo Growers, Inc. procures and markets avocados and other perishable foods, and prepares and distributes processed avocado products.  The Company delivers a wide array of fresh and processed food products to food distributors, produce wholesalers, supermarkets, and restaurants on a worldwide basis.

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Calavo Growers (CVGW US)

The Equity Dispatch #46: CVGW: Hanging by a Thread

Thanks to a non-binding offer for the company from an undisclosed buyer, Calavo Growers’ (NASDAQ: CVGW) stock has only slightly under-performed...

J Capital Research

Defensives Still Leading; Deeper Pullback?; Downgrading Financials and Discretionary to Underweight

Defensives Still Leading; Deeper Pullback Coming?; Downgrading Financials $XLF and Discretionary $XLY $XRT to Underweight. Crucial support levels...

Vermilion Research

Lynch Group (LGL AU): Scheme Vote on 21 November

The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a 9 December payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.7%...

Arun George

S&P500/400/600 Index Rebalance: Dell, Palantir Make It (Finally!); Apple Upweight

There are 3 changes for the SnP500, 8 for the SnP400 and 15 for the SnP600 Index. Dell and Palantir have finally been added. There is huge size to...

Brian Freitas

Sep24 S&P500 Index Rebal - Two Changes Expected; $6bn One-Way Flow and Two Spinoffs?

The S&P500 index rebal is coming in about 7 weeks. There are about 5 weeks of data left to tally. We expect there are two changes, but there are...

Travis Lundy

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