Managing Director, Leaf & Ledger Limited

Evan Campbell, CFA

Managing Director

Leaf & Ledger Limited

Formed in 2024, Leaf & Ledger is a European advisory and research firm serving institutional investors and managers. We focus on real assets and private markets, with public-market read-throughs where material. Our work emphasises valuation signals, market structure, and execution topics that translate technical assessment into underwriting and strategy.

Insight That Moves Capital

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
 Trade call: Long the 2022 SL hybrid. Price in a likely SPT 1 miss, capture optionality around 101% redemption and the post-disclosure vendor lag.</li>
<li>
 Miss risk: F&amp;I intensity must fall about 5.4% from 2024 to meet the 2021 minus 5% SPT. Operational mix makes that hard.</li>
<li>
 Catalyst path: Two windows. Pre-disclosure, trade miss probability. Post-disclosure, arbitrage the convergence until data vendors update.</li>
</ul>



 Trade call: Long the 2022 SL hybrid. Price in a likely SPT 1 miss, capture optionality around 101% redemption and the post-disclosure vendor lag.

 Miss risk: F&amp;I intensity must fall about 5.4% from 2024 to meet the 2021 minus 5% SPT. Operational mix makes that hard.

 Catalyst path: Two windows. Pre-disclosure, trade miss probability. Post-disclosure, arbitrage the convergence until data vendors update.


Ampol Ltd (ALD) SL Hybrid, Trade the FY25 Disclosure Window

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ampol-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:345:1" rel="noopener">Ampol (ALD AU)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woodside-energy-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13190:1" rel="noopener">Woodside (WDS AU)</a> price-ratio has diverged more than two standard deviations from its one-year average - a classic signal for a potential mean-reversion trade.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Going long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ampol-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:345:1" rel="noopener">Ampol (ALD AU)</a> and short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woodside-energy-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13190:1" rel="noopener">Woodside (WDS AU)</a> targets a 7% return if the price ratio reverts to its one-standard-deviation threshold.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Ampol (ALD AU) vs. Woodside (WDS AU) price-ratio has diverged more than two standard deviations from its one-year average - a classic signal for a potential mean-reversion trade.

Highlights: Going long Ampol (ALD AU) and short Woodside (WDS AU) targets a 7% return if the price ratio reverts to its one-standard-deviation threshold.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Ampol (ALD AU) Vs. Woodside Energy (WDS AU): Mean-Reversion Signal in Aussie Energy

<ul>
<li>
Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ampol-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:345:1" rel="noopener">Ampol (ALD AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woodside-energy-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13190:1" rel="noopener">Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS AU)</a>, based on statistical mean reversion analysis.</li>
<li>
Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a positive return.</li>
<li>
Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.</li>
</ul>



Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between Ampol (ALD AU) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS AU), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.

Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a positive return.

Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.


Ampol (ALD AU) Vs. Woodside Energy (WDS AU): Mean Reversion Delivers Profit, Trade Exit

<ul>
<li>
Context: Statistical analysis of a relative value opportunity in the Australian Oil &amp; Gas industry between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ampol-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:345:1" rel="noopener">Ampol (ALD AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woodside-energy-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13190:1" rel="noopener">Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS AU)</a>.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Going long Ampol and short Woodside targets an 8% return to the statistical mean reversion level.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: Statistical analysis of a relative value opportunity in the Australian Oil &amp; Gas industry between Ampol (ALD AU) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS AU).

Highlights: Going long Ampol and short Woodside targets an 8% return to the statistical mean reversion level.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Ampol (ALD AU) Vs. Woodside Energy (WDS AU): Fueling an Aussie Mean-Reversion Trade

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently nine pair trade opportunities across four markets and four sectors persist.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently nine pair trade opportunities across four markets and four sectors persist.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (27 Oct)

Australia

Ampol Limited provides petroleum products. The Company offers petrol and convenience network as well as refining, importing, and marketing fuels and lubricants. Ampol serves defence, mining, transport, marine, agriculture, aviation, and other commercial sectors in Australia.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Ampol (ALD AU)

Ampol Ltd (ALD) SL Hybrid, Trade the FY25 Disclosure Window

Summary: Trade call to go long on 2022 SL hybrid, capturing optionality around 101% redemption and post-disclosure vendor lag. Two catalyst...

Evan Campbell, CFA

Ampol (ALD AU) Vs. Woodside Energy (WDS AU): Mean-Reversion Signal in Aussie Energy

This article details a potential mean-reversion opportunity between Ampol (ALD AU) and Woodside (WDS AU) — ideal for quantitative traders targeting...

Gaudenz Schneider

Ampol (ALD AU) Vs. Woodside Energy (WDS AU): Mean Reversion Delivers Profit, Trade Exit

Follow-up on pair trading opportunity; Ampol (ALD AU) vs. Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS AU) has reached an exit signal with positive return,...

Gaudenz Schneider

Ampol (ALD AU) Vs. Woodside Energy (WDS AU): Fueling an Aussie Mean-Reversion Trade

Statistical analysis identifies an opportunity in the Australian Oil & Gas industry by going long Ampol and short Woodside. Ideal for quantitative...

Gaudenz Schneider

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (27 Oct)

Statistical methodology identifies nine pair trade opportunities across four markets and four sectors, offering unique insights into relative...

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Ampol Ltd (ALD) SL Hybrid, Trade the FY25 Disclosure Window

​Summary: Trade call to go long on 2022 SL hybrid, capturing optionality around 101% redemption and post-disclosure vendor lag. Two catalyst...

Evan Campbell, CFA

Ampol (ALD AU) Vs. Woodside Energy (WDS AU): Mean-Reversion Signal in Aussie Energy

This article details a potential mean-reversion opportunity between Ampol (ALD AU) and Woodside (WDS AU) — ideal for quantitative traders targeting...

Gaudenz Schneider

Ampol (ALD AU) Vs. Woodside Energy (WDS AU): Mean Reversion Delivers Profit, Trade Exit

​Follow-up on pair trading opportunity; Ampol (ALD AU) vs. Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS AU) has reached an exit signal with positive return,...

Gaudenz Schneider

Ampol (ALD AU) Vs. Woodside Energy (WDS AU): Fueling an Aussie Mean-Reversion Trade

​Statistical analysis identifies an opportunity in the Australian Oil & Gas industry by going long Ampol and short Woodside. Ideal for quantitative...

Gaudenz Schneider

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (27 Oct)

​Statistical methodology identifies nine pair trade opportunities across four markets and four sectors, offering unique insights into relative...

Gaudenz Schneider

Summary: Trade call to go long on 2022 SL hybrid, capturing optionality around 101% redemption and post-disclosure vendor lag. Two catalyst...

Follow-up on pair trading opportunity; Ampol (ALD AU) vs. Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS AU) has reached an exit signal with positive return,...

Statistical analysis identifies an opportunity in the Australian Oil & Gas industry by going long Ampol and short Woodside. Ideal for quantitative...

Statistical methodology identifies nine pair trade opportunities across four markets and four sectors, offering unique insights into relative...