Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>We look at certain investor positioning in the commodity sector</li>
<li>A bear market rally in the USD is the biggest risk and opportunity.</li>
<li>We add some soft commodities to the inflation beneficiaries' basket</li>
</ul>


We look at certain investor positioning in the commodity sector
A bear market rally in the USD is the biggest risk and opportunity.
We add some soft commodities to the inflation beneficiaries' basket


Overview# 29- The Hard-Asset Reset: Buying the Pullback in Commodities

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Cameco’s earnings have rebounded strongly with operating leverage from higher uranium prices and conversion margins.</li>
<li>The company is scaling its uranium volumes, upgrading fuel assets, and leveraging its 49% stake in Westinghouse to gain downstream exposure to SMRs and nuclear services.</li>
<li>While valuations appear stretched in the near term, Cameco’s integrated nuclear platform offers attractive long-term optionality, albeit with execution and geopolitical risks.</li>
</ul>


Cameco’s earnings have rebounded strongly with operating leverage from higher uranium prices and conversion margins.
The company is scaling its uranium volumes, upgrading fuel assets, and leveraging its 49% stake in Westinghouse to gain downstream exposure to SMRs and nuclear services.
While valuations appear stretched in the near term, Cameco’s integrated nuclear platform offers attractive long-term optionality, albeit with execution and geopolitical risks.


Cameco (TSX: CCO) – Strong Earnings, Westinghouse Expansion, Long-Term Tailwinds in Nuclear Cycle

<ul>
<li>Paladin reported a Q3 FY25 net loss of US$38M, impacted by non-cash impairments and ramp-up costs, though production at Langer Heinrich hit post-restart highs.</li>
<li>Management targets steady-state output of ~6 Mlb by FY27, with uranium demand set to outpace supply driven by new reactor builds and SMR adoption.</li>
<li>At core EV/EBITDA of ~2.8x on US$70/lb uranium, valuations appear undemanding relative to long-life assets and sector-leading leverage to uranium prices.</li>
</ul>


Paladin reported a Q3 FY25 net loss of US$38M, impacted by non-cash impairments and ramp-up costs, though production at Langer Heinrich hit post-restart highs.
Management targets steady-state output of ~6 Mlb by FY27, with uranium demand set to outpace supply driven by new reactor builds and SMR adoption.
At core EV/EBITDA of ~2.8x on US$70/lb uranium, valuations appear undemanding relative to long-life assets and sector-leading leverage to uranium prices.


Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) – Ramp-Up Progressing Amid Strong Uranium Tailwinds & Optionality

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is 1 add/delete for each of the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index and the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cgn-mining-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6426:1" rel="noopener">Cgn Mining (1164 HK)</a> is an add to both indices. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/endesa-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21264:1" rel="noopener">Endesa SA</a> is a delete from the Uranium&amp;Nuclear Energy Index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/encore-energy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39218:1" rel="noopener">Encore Energy</a> is a delete from the Uranium&amp;Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.</li>
<li>The net round-trip trade across both indices is US$560m with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 add/delete for each of the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index and the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.

Cgn Mining (1164 HK) is an add to both indices. Endesa SA is a delete from the Uranium&amp;Nuclear Energy Index, Encore Energy is a delete from the Uranium&amp;Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.
The net round-trip trade across both indices is US$560m with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index.


MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Double Inclusion for CGN Mining

<ul>
<li>Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Components Index. There is only 1 delete with implementation at the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goviex-uranium-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35742:1" rel="noopener">GoviEx Uranium (GXU CN)</a> will be deleted from the index and there will be a bunch of capping changes, especially for non-pure play stocks.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 5.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$386m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Components Index. There is only 1 delete with implementation at the close on 31 January.
As expected, GoviEx Uranium (GXU CN) will be deleted from the index and there will be a bunch of capping changes, especially for non-pure play stocks.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$386m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.


Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: DeepSeek Led Selloff & 1 Delete

Canada

Cameco Corporation explores, develops, mines, refines, converts, and fabricates uranium. The Company offers uranium for sale as fuel for generating electricity in nuclear power reactors. Cameco operates worldwide.

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Cameco Corp (CCJ US)

Overview# 29- The Hard-Asset Reset: Buying the Pullback in Commodities

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the longer term commodity move in the context of the current...

Rikki Malik

Cameco (TSX: CCO) – Strong Earnings, Westinghouse Expansion, Long-Term Tailwinds in Nuclear Cycle

Cameco's strong earnings rebound driven by higher uranium prices and strategic growth initiatives, offering long-term potential despite near-term...

Rahul Jain

Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) – Ramp-Up Progressing Amid Strong Uranium Tailwinds & Optionality

Management targets steady-state output of ~6 Mlb by FY27, with uranium demand set to outpace supply. Valuations appear undemanding with core EV...

Rahul Jain

MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Double Inclusion for CGN Mining

CGN Mining is a double add, while Endesa and enCore Energy are deletes. Estimated net round-trip trade across both indices is US$560m.

Brian Freitas

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: DeepSeek Led Selloff & 1 Delete

GoviEx Uranium will be deleted from the URA ETF on Friday. The deletion plus capping changes lead to a one-way turnover of 5.8% resulting in a...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Overview# 29- The Hard-Asset Reset: Buying the Pullback in Commodities

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the longer term commodity move in the context of the current...

Rikki Malik

Cameco (TSX: CCO) – Strong Earnings, Westinghouse Expansion, Long-Term Tailwinds in Nuclear Cycle

​Cameco's strong earnings rebound driven by higher uranium prices and strategic growth initiatives, offering long-term potential despite near-term...

Rahul Jain

Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) – Ramp-Up Progressing Amid Strong Uranium Tailwinds & Optionality

Management targets steady-state output of ~6 Mlb by FY27, with uranium demand set to outpace supply. Valuations appear undemanding with core EV...

Rahul Jain

MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Double Inclusion for CGN Mining

CGN Mining is a double add, while Endesa and enCore Energy are deletes. Estimated net round-trip trade across both indices is US$560m.

Brian Freitas

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: DeepSeek Led Selloff & 1 Delete

GoviEx Uranium will be deleted from the URA ETF on Friday. The deletion plus capping changes lead to a one-way turnover of 5.8% resulting in a...

Brian Freitas

Cameco's strong earnings rebound driven by higher uranium prices and strategic growth initiatives, offering long-term potential despite near-term...