Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>SHANTI eliminates the liability and monopoly barriers—SDR-indexed operator caps, a sovereign-backed compensation waterfall, AERB independence, and APTEL appellate review convert nuclear into a bankable asset class.</li>
<li>India shifts from ~8 GW to a 100-GW build mandate, implying ~90 GW of new capacity and ~$550–750 billion of capex, with SMRs and brownfield coal conversions driving first-wave execution.</li>
<li>Ancing viability hinges on non-recourse leverage (70:30/80:20), long-tenor PPAs/CfDs, ECA underwriting, and fuel security—especially uranium diversification and HALEU access for SMRs</li>
</ul>


SHANTI eliminates the liability and monopoly barriers—SDR-indexed operator caps, a sovereign-backed compensation waterfall, AERB independence, and APTEL appellate review convert nuclear into a bankable asset class.
India shifts from ~8 GW to a 100-GW build mandate, implying ~90 GW of new capacity and ~$550–750 billion of capex, with SMRs and brownfield coal conversions driving first-wave execution.
Ancing viability hinges on non-recourse leverage (70:30/80:20), long-tenor PPAs/CfDs, ECA underwriting, and fuel security—especially uranium diversification and HALEU access for SMRs


INDIA NUCLEAR — SHANTI BILL 2025: From Liability Paralysis to a $550–750bn Private-Build Pipeline

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 5+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. So far, the latest pullback is testing the uptrend -- buy/stay long.</li>
<li>We are buying the test of 7-month base support in Europe (EURO STOXX 50). China's Shanghai Composite points to a second chance breakout attempt above 1.5-month resistance -- buy/stay long</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 5+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. So far, the latest pullback is testing the uptrend -- buy/stay long.
We are buying the test of 7-month base support in Europe (EURO STOXX 50). China's Shanghai Composite points to a second chance breakout attempt above 1.5-month resistance -- buy/stay long


5+ Month Uptrend Support Holding on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); China Second Chance Breakout Likely

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Commodity trends remain bifurcated: gold, copper, and uranium are surging, while iron ore, and coal struggle under oversupply and weak demand.</li>
<li>Top picks: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24628:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-gold-mining-co-ltd-4527fb98-bb5d-4d74-91fe-66f9c0224eb3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27455:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lloyds-metals-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15467:1" rel="noopener">Lloyds Metals &amp; Energy (LYDM IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paladin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10117:1" rel="noopener">Paladin Energy (PDN AU)</a> </li>
<li>Top shorts: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindalco-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18490:1" rel="noopener">Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coal-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9117:1" rel="noopener">Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> </li>
</ul>


Commodity trends remain bifurcated: gold, copper, and uranium are surging, while iron ore, and coal struggle under oversupply and weak demand.
Top picks: Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN), Lloyds Metals &amp; Energy (LYDM IN) , Paladin Energy (PDN AU) 
Top shorts: Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN) , Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) 


Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>We look at certain investor positioning in the commodity sector</li>
<li>A bear market rally in the USD is the biggest risk and opportunity.</li>
<li>We add some soft commodities to the inflation beneficiaries' basket</li>
</ul>


We look at certain investor positioning in the commodity sector
A bear market rally in the USD is the biggest risk and opportunity.
We add some soft commodities to the inflation beneficiaries' basket


Overview# 29- The Hard-Asset Reset: Buying the Pullback in Commodities

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is 1 add/delete for the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Index, and no constituent changes for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index in September.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boss-energy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4823:1" rel="noopener">Boss Energy (BOE AU)</a> is an add, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/encore-energy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39218:1" rel="noopener">Encore Energy (EU US)</a> is a delete, and there is a listing switch for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isoenergy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43145:1" rel="noopener">IsoEnergy (ISO CN)</a>. </li>
<li>The round-trip trade across both indices is US$824m with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 add/delete for the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Index, and no constituent changes for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index in September.

Boss Energy (BOE AU) is an add, Encore Energy (EU US) is a delete, and there is a listing switch for IsoEnergy (ISO CN). 
The round-trip trade across both indices is US$824m with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index.


MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Changes Lead to US$824m Trade

Canada

Cameco Corporation explores, develops, mines, refines, converts, and fabricates uranium. The Company offers uranium for sale as fuel for generating electricity in nuclear power reactors. Cameco operates worldwide.

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Cameco Corp (CCO CN)

INDIA NUCLEAR — SHANTI BILL 2025: From Liability Paralysis to a $550–750bn Private-Build Pipeline

SHANTI transforms nuclear energy into a bankable asset class in India, with a shift towards a 100-GW build mandate and focus on SMRs and...

Rahul Jain

5+ Month Uptrend Support Holding on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); China Second Chance Breakout Likely

5+ Month Uptrend Support Holding on MSCI $ACWI; Bullish Outlook Intact; China Second Chance Breakout Likely on Shanghai Composite. Buying the test...

Vermilion Research

Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...

Rahul Jain

Overview# 29- The Hard-Asset Reset: Buying the Pullback in Commodities

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the longer term commodity move in the context of the current...

Rikki Malik

MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Changes Lead to US$824m Trade

Boss Energy replaces Encore Energy in the NLR ETF. The round-trip trade across NLR and NUCL is US$824m. IsoEnergy's inclusion in the indices shifts...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

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INDIA NUCLEAR — SHANTI BILL 2025: From Liability Paralysis to a $550–750bn Private-Build Pipeline

​SHANTI transforms nuclear energy into a bankable asset class in India, with a shift towards a 100-GW build mandate and focus on SMRs and...

Rahul Jain

5+ Month Uptrend Support Holding on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); China Second Chance Breakout Likely

5+ Month Uptrend Support Holding on MSCI $ACWI; Bullish Outlook Intact; China Second Chance Breakout Likely on Shanghai Composite. Buying the test...

Vermilion Research

Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

​Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...

Rahul Jain

Overview# 29- The Hard-Asset Reset: Buying the Pullback in Commodities

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the longer term commodity move in the context of the current...

Rikki Malik

MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Changes Lead to US$824m Trade

Boss Energy replaces Encore Energy in the NLR ETF. The round-trip trade across NLR and NUCL is US$824m. IsoEnergy's inclusion in the indices shifts...

Brian Freitas

SHANTI transforms nuclear energy into a bankable asset class in India, with a shift towards a 100-GW build mandate and focus on SMRs and...

Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...