Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain constructive on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) holds above major support at $90.50-91.50.</li>
<li>We continue to monitor for whether ACWI-US and EEM-US break supports at $90.50-91.50 and $37, or if broken indexes (EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, EAFE) can reclaim supports.</li>
<li>Neither has happened yet, so we remain in wait-and-see mode. We are downgrading non-US small-caps to market weight. Non-US Value remains leadership -- remain overweight/buys in Financials and Communications</li>
</ul>


We remain constructive on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) holds above major support at $90.50-91.50.
We continue to monitor for whether ACWI-US and EEM-US break supports at $90.50-91.50 and $37, or if broken indexes (EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, EAFE) can reclaim supports.
Neither has happened yet, so we remain in wait-and-see mode. We are downgrading non-US small-caps to market weight. Non-US Value remains leadership -- remain overweight/buys in Financials and Communications


MSCI ACWI, MSCI EM Still Above Supports; Buys in Global Value - Financials and Communications

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: In India's financial sector, currently four pair trade opportunities persist
</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: In India's financial sector, currently four pair trade opportunities persist


Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


India: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (21 Aug 2026)

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.</li>
<li>After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.</li>
<li>As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.
After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.
As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.


MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>We keep deep-value Bank of Baroda on the buy list, whilst replacing UBI with Canara on the buy list; Baroda trades at an over 50% discount to SBI’s PBV ratio</li>
<li>Canara stands out for its PBV to ROE, as well as its prospective earnings and dividend yields; Canara has also been aggressively writing-off NPAs, reducing its low NPL ratio further</li>
<li>We add Indian Bank to our coverage in this report; it ranks highly on the scorecard but we believe that Canara has the edge on valuation metrics and credit write-offs</li>
</ul>


We keep deep-value Bank of Baroda on the buy list, whilst replacing UBI with Canara on the buy list; Baroda trades at an over 50% discount to SBI’s PBV ratio
Canara stands out for its PBV to ROE, as well as its prospective earnings and dividend yields; Canara has also been aggressively writing-off NPAs, reducing its low NPL ratio further
We add Indian Bank to our coverage in this report; it ranks highly on the scorecard but we believe that Canara has the edge on valuation metrics and credit write-offs


Indian PSBs: Baroda (BOB IN) Stays a Buy, Adding Canara (CBK IN) As a Buy Replacing UBI (UNBK IN)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>In the third and last part of our trilogy on Asian AT1s, we turn our focus to AT1s in Asian emerging markets (EMs) including India, Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand.</li><li>Compared with that of Chinese G-SIBs and Asian DMs, the return predictability of AT1s in Asian EMs are lower.</li><li>Hence, our analytical approach in Asian EM AT1s will be more “bottom-up”.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In the third and last part of our trilogy on Asian AT1s, we turn our focus to AT1s in Asian emerging markets (EMs) including India, Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand.Compared with that of Chinese G-SIBs and Asian DMs, the return predictability of AT1s in Asian EMs are lower.Hence, our analytical approach in Asian EM AT1s will be more “bottom-up”.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

Canara Bank Ltd. provides a full range of banking services throughout India. The Group's activities include retail banking, commercial and personal banking, investment management, treasury & NRI services, cash management and assorted ATM facilities.

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Canara Bank (CBK IN)

MSCI ACWI, MSCI EM Still Above Supports; Buys in Global Value - Financials and Communications

MSCI $ACWI, MSCI EM $EEM Still Above Supports at $90.50-$91.50 and $37, though being tested today. Meanwhile, broken indexes (EURO $STOXX 50,...

Vermilion Research

India: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (21 Aug 2026)

Discover four pair trade opportunities using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights. Ideal for quant traders seeking mean...

Gaudenz Schneider

MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

$EEM is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023. As long as $EEM is...

Vermilion Research

Indian PSBs: Baroda (BOB IN) Stays a Buy, Adding Canara (CBK IN) As a Buy Replacing UBI (UNBK IN)

We stick with deep-value Bank of Baroda as a buy, adding Canara Bank to the buy list for its valuation and credit quality metrics, whilst...

Victor Galliano

Asian AT1s Part III – Picks on EM AT1s

In the third and last part of our trilogy on Asian AT1s, we turn our focus to AT1s in Asian emerging markets (EMs) including India, Indonesia,...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MSCI ACWI, MSCI EM Still Above Supports; Buys in Global Value - Financials and Communications

MSCI $ACWI, MSCI EM $EEM Still Above Supports at $90.50-$91.50 and $37, though being tested today. Meanwhile, broken indexes (EURO $STOXX 50,...

Vermilion Research

India: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (21 Aug 2026)

​Discover four pair trade opportunities using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights. Ideal for quant traders seeking mean...

Gaudenz Schneider

MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

$EEM is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023. As long as $EEM is...

Vermilion Research

Indian PSBs: Baroda (BOB IN) Stays a Buy, Adding Canara (CBK IN) As a Buy Replacing UBI (UNBK IN)

We stick with deep-value Bank of Baroda as a buy, adding Canara Bank to the buy list for its valuation and credit quality metrics, whilst...

Victor Galliano

Asian AT1s Part III – Picks on EM AT1s

In the third and last part of our trilogy on Asian AT1s, we turn our focus to AT1s in Asian emerging markets (EMs) including India, Indonesia,...

CMB International

Discover four pair trade opportunities using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights. Ideal for quant traders seeking mean...