AI and Energy Infrastructure, Explained Plainly, The Physical Layer

The Physical Layer

AI and Energy Infrastructure, Explained Plainly

A journal on the physical constraints behind the AI buildout: power, grid connection, data centres, cooling and the supply chains that gate them. Written to be understood by anyone.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Every factory making the most advanced AI chips needs EUV machines, and ASML, a Dutch company, is the only maker.</li><li>It expects to ship about 65 of its standard model this year, its full capacity, and says next year's machines are already close to fully ordered.</li><li>Its output can grow only as fast as its German optics supplier allows, so a chipmaker that wants more must order a year or two ahead, much as a data centre books its grid connection.</li></ul>

Every factory making the most advanced AI chips needs EUV machines, and ASML, a Dutch company, is the only maker.It expects to ship about 65 of its standard model this year, its full capacity, and says next year's machines are already close to fully ordered.Its output can grow only as fast as its German optics supplier allows, so a chipmaker that wants more must order a year or two ahead, much as a data centre books its grid connection.

ASML's EUV machines are booked a year or two ahead, like a grid connection

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Global Ex-USA funds have almost eliminated a decade-long Japan underweight, lifting average exposure to 13.64%, just 0.22% below benchmark.</li>
<li>Japan has seen strong rotation in 2026, with an estimated $3.8bn of net inflows and broadening ownership across Industrials, Financials and Materials.</li>
<li>Stock selection is shifting towards semiconductors and industrial technology, led by Kioxia, Advantest and Sumitomo Electric, while established holdings including Nintendo and Sony lose ground.</li>
</ul>


Global Ex-USA funds have almost eliminated a decade-long Japan underweight, lifting average exposure to 13.64%, just 0.22% below benchmark.
Japan has seen strong rotation in 2026, with an estimated $3.8bn of net inflows and broadening ownership across Industrials, Financials and Materials.
Stock selection is shifting towards semiconductors and industrial technology, led by Kioxia, Advantest and Sumitomo Electric, while established holdings including Nintendo and Sony lose ground.


<ul>
<li>Technology dominates global active portfolios, with 8 of the 11 most widely held stocks coming from the sector.</li>
<li>TSMC hits record ownership at 65.7% of funds, becoming the second most widely held stock globally.</li>
<li>Broadcom, Tencent and Alibaba see rising adoption, while Novo Nordisk and UnitedHealth face sharp ownership declines.</li>
</ul>


Technology dominates global active portfolios, with 8 of the 11 most widely held stocks coming from the sector.
TSMC hits record ownership at 65.7% of funds, becoming the second most widely held stock globally.
Broadcom, Tencent and Alibaba see rising adoption, while Novo Nordisk and UnitedHealth face sharp ownership declines.


Global Stock Positioning: Tech Dominance, China Rotation, and Record TSMC Ownership

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Pure Storage surging 32% showcasing the growth potential for NAND as a viable and cost effective storage medium for AI/enterprise use. Watch Kioxia.</li>
<li>HP up but its printing business not so good -however this could be a 'bad is good' scenario for Japan's desperately in need of consolidation printer industry.</li>
<li>Marvell getting hit hard after-hours may see ASIC related Socionext trade lower.</li>
</ul>


Pure Storage surging 32% showcasing the growth potential for NAND as a viable and cost effective storage medium for AI/enterprise use. Watch Kioxia.
HP up but its printing business not so good -however this could be a 'bad is good' scenario for Japan's desperately in need of consolidation printer industry.
Marvell getting hit hard after-hours may see ASIC related Socionext trade lower.


Japan Morning Connection: Tech Shakes off Initial Weakness with Talks of Blackwell Sales to China

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..</li>
<li>... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.</li>
<li>Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..
... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.
Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond


Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

Japan

Canon Inc. is a professional and consumer imaging solutions company and patent-holder of digital imaging technologies. The Company's products include networked multifunction devices, digital and analog copiers, computer peripherals, facsimile machines, image filing systems, camcorders, cameras and lenses, semiconductor, and broadcast and medical equipment.

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Canon Inc (7751 JP)

ASML's EUV machines are booked a year or two ahead, like a grid connection

Every factory making the most advanced AI chips needs EUV machines, and ASML, a Dutch company, is the only maker. It expects to ship about 65 of...

The Physical Layer

Japan: Underweight No More?

Global Ex-USA funds have almost eliminated their decade-long Japan underweight, as rising allocations and strong inflows drive rotation towards...

Steven Holden

Global Stock Positioning: Tech Dominance, China Rotation, and Record TSMC Ownership

Technology continues to anchor global active portfolios, with TSMC at record ownership. Rotation persists across regions as managers selectively...

Steven Holden

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Shakes off Initial Weakness with Talks of Blackwell Sales to China

Memory plays continue to trade well with strong growth outlook for NAND memory, watch Kioxia as a squeeze candidate. Dell down with numbers showing...

Andrew Jackson

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; We are still bullish as Risk-On Signals Dominate. Ideas to buy/stay long in global Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

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