Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The slide in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ricoh-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15359:1" rel="noopener">Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP)</a>'s stock price over the last few months could lead to the deletion of the stock from a global index in August. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ricoh-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15359:1" rel="noopener">Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP)</a> has underperformed its peers over the last couple of months and trades cheaper than the average of its peers.</li>
<li>There are indications of positioning in the stock. However, positioning is likely smaller than the estimated passive selling and there could be more downside for the stock near-term.</li>
</ul>


The slide in Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP)'s stock price over the last few months could lead to the deletion of the stock from a global index in August. 

Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP) has underperformed its peers over the last couple of months and trades cheaper than the average of its peers.
There are indications of positioning in the stock. However, positioning is likely smaller than the estimated passive selling and there could be more downside for the stock near-term.


Ricoh (7752 JP): Potential Global Index Deletion in August

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Kokusai Electric  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>KKR is looking to raise approximately US$620m through an accelerated secondary offering for around 13% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a>'s (KE) stock.</li>
<li>KKR had sold in the IPO and undertaken an extended selldown in July 2024 as well. Hence, this deal is somewhat well flagged.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


KKR is looking to raise approximately US$620m through an accelerated secondary offering for around 13% of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)'s (KE) stock.
KKR had sold in the IPO and undertaken an extended selldown in July 2024 as well. Hence, this deal is somewhat well flagged.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Kokusai Electric Placement - Well Flagged but past Deal Didn’t Do Well

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Buybacks are a central part of Corporate Japan's effort to improve corporate/capital governance. Lots of cross-holders want/need to sell. Lots of companies want to reduce excess equity.</li>
<li>This earnings season has seen a LOT of new buybacks announced. ¥7.3trln in the last month and that doesn't even include the biggest buybacks extant by March-end companies.</li>
<li>We are experimenting with new ways of displaying data/analytics for buybacks in Japan. To that end, we have a new tool. We hope users find it useful. We invite feedback.</li>
</ul>


Buybacks are a central part of Corporate Japan's effort to improve corporate/capital governance. Lots of cross-holders want/need to sell. Lots of companies want to reduce excess equity.
This earnings season has seen a LOT of new buybacks announced. ¥7.3trln in the last month and that doesn't even include the biggest buybacks extant by March-end companies.
We are experimenting with new ways of displaying data/analytics for buybacks in Japan. To that end, we have a new tool. We hope users find it useful. We invite feedback.


[Japan Buybacks] ¥7.3trln of Buybacks Announced In the Last Month - Data on Each, Plus History

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
 Earnings Momentum in 2025 – Canon expects 5% revenue growth and 17% EBIT expansion this year, driven by high-margin segments like semiconductor lithography, medical devices, and network cameras.</li>
<li>
 Aggressive Shareholder Returns – With ¥350 billion in planned buybacks and dividends in 2024, Canon’s 6.8% TSR and strong free cash flow offer a compelling value proposition.</li>
<li>
De-Risked Upside – 2025 guidance provides earnings visibility, while valuation suggests ~40% upside, supported by resilient end-markets and an under-leveraged balance sheet.</li>
</ul>



 Earnings Momentum in 2025 – Canon expects 5% revenue growth and 17% EBIT expansion this year, driven by high-margin segments like semiconductor lithography, medical devices, and network cameras.

 Aggressive Shareholder Returns – With ¥350 billion in planned buybacks and dividends in 2024, Canon’s 6.8% TSR and strong free cash flow offer a compelling value proposition.

De-Risked Upside – 2025 guidance provides earnings visibility, while valuation suggests ~40% upside, supported by resilient end-markets and an under-leveraged balance sheet.


Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>An additional 24 Equipment are added to the restriction list (negative to AMAT, KLA, LAM). No explicit restrictions on ASML or Tokyo Electron, but that’s done indirectly.</li>
<li>HBM Memory sales to China restricted (directly negative to Samsung), but restriction of DRAM Manufacturing Equipment sales is long-term positive to Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix. </li>
<li>140 Chinese firms added to the Entity List, including all China’s Semi Production Equipment makers (Naura, AMEC, Piotech, SiCarrier). </li>
</ul>


An additional 24 Equipment are added to the restriction list (negative to AMAT, KLA, LAM). No explicit restrictions on ASML or Tokyo Electron, but that’s done indirectly.
HBM Memory sales to China restricted (directly negative to Samsung), but restriction of DRAM Manufacturing Equipment sales is long-term positive to Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix. 
140 Chinese firms added to the Entity List, including all China’s Semi Production Equipment makers (Naura, AMEC, Piotech, SiCarrier). 


US Restriction on Semi Export to China Negative for All Equipment Makers, Naura, AMEC, ASML, TEL

Japan

Canon Inc. is a professional and consumer imaging solutions company and patent-holder of digital imaging technologies. The Company's products include networked multifunction devices, digital and analog copiers, computer peripherals, facsimile machines, image filing systems, camcorders, cameras and lenses, semiconductor, and broadcast and medical equipment.

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Canon Inc (7751 JP)

Ricoh (7752 JP): Potential Global Index Deletion in August

Ricoh has underperformed its peers this year and the stock could be deleted from a global index later this month. Small increase in shorts and...

Brian Freitas

Kokusai Electric Placement - Well Flagged but past Deal Didn’t Do Well

KKR is looking to raise approximately US$620m through an accelerated secondary offering for around 13% of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)'s (KE) stock.

Sumeet Singh

[Japan Buybacks] ¥7.3trln of Buybacks Announced In the Last Month - Data on Each, Plus History

Japan saw ¥7.3trln of buybacks announced in the March-end earnings season. Here we offer a tool to see them all, and past buyback patterns of each...

Travis Lundy

Canon (7751) | The Cash Printer

Canon expects strong revenue and EBIT growth in 2025, driven by high-margin segments, aggressive shareholder returns, and de-risked upside with...

Mark Chadwick

US Restriction on Semi Export to China Negative for All Equipment Makers, Naura, AMEC, ASML, TEL

New restrictions on equipment sales and Entity List additions impact semiconductor industry players, with mostly negative implications as SPE...

Nicolas Baratte

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Ricoh (7752 JP): Potential Global Index Deletion in August

Ricoh has underperformed its peers this year and the stock could be deleted from a global index later this month. Small increase in shorts and...

Brian Freitas

Kokusai Electric Placement - Well Flagged but past Deal Didn’t Do Well

KKR is looking to raise approximately US$620m through an accelerated secondary offering for around 13% of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)'s (KE) stock.

Sumeet Singh

[Japan Buybacks] ¥7.3trln of Buybacks Announced In the Last Month - Data on Each, Plus History

Japan saw ¥7.3trln of buybacks announced in the March-end earnings season. Here we offer a tool to see them all, and past buyback patterns of each...

Travis Lundy

Canon (7751) | The Cash Printer

​Canon expects strong revenue and EBIT growth in 2025, driven by high-margin segments, aggressive shareholder returns, and de-risked upside with...

Mark Chadwick

US Restriction on Semi Export to China Negative for All Equipment Makers, Naura, AMEC, ASML, TEL

​New restrictions on equipment sales and Entity List additions impact semiconductor industry players, with mostly negative implications as SPE...

Nicolas Baratte

Canon expects strong revenue and EBIT growth in 2025, driven by high-margin segments, aggressive shareholder returns, and de-risked upside with...

New restrictions on equipment sales and Entity List additions impact semiconductor industry players, with mostly negative implications as SPE...