HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We would see CanSino’s performance pick up obviously in 2024 - Revenue of meningococcal vaccines would up about 50% YoY. Both R&amp;D and SG&amp;A expenses would show a declining trend.</li>
<li>Starting from 2025, CanSino’s product matrix will become more diverse.Its financial performance will enter a virtuous cycle. Revenue in 2025 may exceed expectations, depending on the approval time of PCV13i.</li>
<li>CanSino is one of the few domestic vaccine companies that has ability to explore the international market. Mispricing/expectation differences in the market will give investors the opportunity for excess returns.</li>
</ul>


We would see CanSino’s performance pick up obviously in 2024 - Revenue of meningococcal vaccines would up about 50% YoY. Both R&amp;D and SG&amp;A expenses would show a declining trend.
Starting from 2025, CanSino’s product matrix will become more diverse.Its financial performance will enter a virtuous cycle. Revenue in 2025 may exceed expectations, depending on the approval time of PCV13i.
CanSino is one of the few domestic vaccine companies that has ability to explore the international market. Mispricing/expectation differences in the market will give investors the opportunity for excess returns.


CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) - 2024 Is the Best Time to Bottom-Fish This Stock

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>In 2023, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cansino-biologics-inc-cc0c90b7-e854-4ba3-929b-914be1bd0d89" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32181:1" rel="noopener">CanSino Biologics (688185 CH)</a> generated revenue of RMB561.7 million from the sales of meningococcal conjugate vaccines, up 266% YoY.</li>
<li>This year, consensus is expecting CanSino to report revenue of RMB858 million, up whopping 140% YoY, mainly driven by meningococcal vaccines.</li>
<li>CanSino is expected to add pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) vaccine in its revenue stream in 2025. The company’s PCV13i is a potential best-in-class improved PCV13.</li>
</ul>


In 2023, CanSino Biologics (688185 CH) generated revenue of RMB561.7 million from the sales of meningococcal conjugate vaccines, up 266% YoY.
This year, consensus is expecting CanSino to report revenue of RMB858 million, up whopping 140% YoY, mainly driven by meningococcal vaccines.
CanSino is expected to add pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) vaccine in its revenue stream in 2025. The company’s PCV13i is a potential best-in-class improved PCV13.


CanSino Biologics (688185 CH): Limited Downside Is Seen; Meningococcal Vaccines to Drive Growth

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 123.4% as of Apr 12th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -9.4ppt week-on-week, led by health care, utilities, information technology and offset by consumer staples.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for GWM, Beigene, Cansino, First Tractor.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 123.4% as of Apr 12th.
The average A-H premium changed by -9.4ppt week-on-week, led by health care, utilities, information technology and offset by consumer staples.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for GWM, Beigene, Cansino, First Tractor.


A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 12th): GWM, Beigene, Cansino, First Tractor

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 127.6% as of Mar 29th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 3.0ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, energy, materials and offset by real estate, information technology, health care.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Baiyunshan, Jiangxi Copper, ZTE, Tigermed, Cansino Biologics.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 127.6% as of Mar 29th.
The average A-H premium changed by 3.0ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, energy, materials and offset by real estate, information technology, health care.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Baiyunshan, Jiangxi Copper, ZTE, Tigermed, Cansino Biologics.


A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 29th): Baiyunshan, Jiangxi Copper, ZTE, Tigermed, Cansino Biologics

Equity Capital Markets

Beijing Health Guard Biotechnology / Equity Capital Markets

Beijing Health Guard Biotechnology (833575 CH)

<ul>
<li>The real market space of China’s HPV vaccines is much smaller-than-expected. Investment logic of vaccine companies is different from biotech - They either become large vaccine enterprises or are eliminated.</li>
<li>Low-Valent HPV vaccines would easily enter a price war or be included in National Immunization Program. 9-valent HPV vaccines would be the main battlefield, which is a highly competitive market.</li>
<li>Health Guard is facing increasing survival risks. Based on the concerns about the commercialization outlook of HPV vaccines, we’re not sure if the Company would bring expected returns to investors.</li>
</ul>


The real market space of China’s HPV vaccines is much smaller-than-expected. Investment logic of vaccine companies is different from biotech - They either become large vaccine enterprises or are eliminated.
Low-Valent HPV vaccines would easily enter a price war or be included in National Immunization Program. 9-valent HPV vaccines would be the main battlefield, which is a highly competitive market.
Health Guard is facing increasing survival risks. Based on the concerns about the commercialization outlook of HPV vaccines, we’re not sure if the Company would bring expected returns to investors.


Pre-IPO Beijing Health Guard Biotechnology - The Story of the HPV Vaccine Is Not as Good as Imagined

China

CanSino Biologics is a biopharmaceutical company specializing in the research, development, manufacturing, and commercialization of innovative vaccine products for human use, primarily focusing on infectious diseases. Its product portfolio includes vaccines for meningitis, pneumonia, pertussis, diphtheria, tetanus, COVID-19, tuberculosis, shingles, and Ebola virus disease. The company was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Tianjin, China.

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CanSino Biologics (6185 HK)