Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Capcom continues to do all it can to restrain profit from exploding to levels high enough that maintaining its double-digit annual OP growth target would become a challenge. 2Q featured another several billion yen in what we regard as entirely discretionary costs being booked to stop profit from running out of control – a good problem to have.

Capcom continues to do all it can to restrain profit from exploding to levels high enough that maintaining its double-digit annual OP growth target would become a challenge. 2Q featured another several billion yen in what we regard as entirely discretionary costs being booked to stop profit from running out of control – a good problem to have.

Capcom – The Monsters Are Running Around Hiding All the Profit

The demo for Monster Hunter Rise’s PC version has dropped and early indications are extremely positive. We were initially treating the PC version as an add-on to “core” Switch sales but even though it is a port we are starting to think volumes could be quite significant.

The demo for Monster Hunter Rise’s PC version has dropped and early indications are extremely positive. We were initially treating the PC version as an add-on to “core” Switch sales but even though it is a port we are starting to think volumes could be quite significant.

Capcom – Monster Hunter Rise for PC Could Be a Pretty Big Deal

In the middle of July we noted that Square Enix was benefitting from increased streamer interest in FFXIV at the expense of World of Warcraft. This has continued and stands to benefit Square Enix significantly but this impact does not appear to be priced in yet.

In the middle of July we noted that Square Enix was benefitting from increased streamer interest in FFXIV at the expense of World of Warcraft. This has continued and stands to benefit Square Enix significantly but this impact does not appear to be priced in yet.

Square Enix – The Market STILL Has Not Priced in the FFXIV Boom

Over the last week it has been revealed that not only will Monster Hunter Rise be coming to the PC on Jan 12th, but also that both the Switch and PC versions will receive an expansion pack in summer 2022. Our expectations for both are high.

Over the last week it has been revealed that not only will Monster Hunter Rise be coming to the PC on Jan 12th, but also that both the Switch and PC versions will receive an expansion pack in summer 2022. Our expectations for both are high.

Capcom handily beat consensus estimates at 1Q with revenue of ¥48.4bn (+27.8%) and OP of ¥23.6bn (+37.4%). Consensus had been as low as ¥13.4bn in early May so the beat is significant. Yet, it failed to meet our ¥25-30bn on account of a write-off of some game assets (“several billion yen”) and deferring revenue for RE8 due to free DLC which we had not expected. Without those factors we believe OP would have come extremely close to ¥30bn. We remain confident that ¥60bn in OP is on the cards for the full year though it is plausible that Capcom could push out sales into next FY and come in slightly below that.

Capcom handily beat consensus estimates at 1Q with revenue of ¥48.4bn (+27.8%) and OP of ¥23.6bn (+37.4%). Consensus had been as low as ¥13.4bn in early May so the beat is significant. Yet, it failed to meet our ¥25-30bn on account of a write-off of some game assets (“several billion yen”) and deferring revenue for RE8 due to free DLC which we had not expected. Without those factors we believe OP would have come extremely close to ¥30bn. We remain confident that ¥60bn in OP is on the cards for the full year though it is plausible that Capcom could push out sales into next FY and come in slightly below that.

Capcom – On Track for ¥60bn in OP This Year

Japan

CAPCOM CO., LTD. develops consumer video game software.  The Company also develops, manufactures, markets, and leases arcade game machines.  Capcom also operates amusement facilities.

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Capcom Co Ltd (9697 JP)

Capcom – The Monsters Are Running Around Hiding All the Profit

Capcom continues to do all it can to restrain profit from exploding to levels high enough that maintaining its double-digit annual OP growth target...

Mio Kato

Capcom – Monster Hunter Rise for PC Could Be a Pretty Big Deal

The demo for Monster Hunter Rise’s PC version has dropped and early indications are extremely positive so we are starting to think volumes could be...

Mio Kato

Square Enix – The Market STILL Has Not Priced in the FFXIV Boom

In the middle of July we noted that Square Enix was benefitting from increased streamer interest in FFXIV at the expense of World of Warcraft. This...

Mio Kato

Capcom – Monster Hunter Rising Onto PC

Monster Hunter Rise will be coming to PC on Jan 12th and both the Switch and PC versions will receive an expansion pack in summer 2022. Our...

Mio Kato

Capcom – On Track for ¥60bn in OP This Year

Capcom posted blowout numbers in 1Q and looks on course to hit ¥60bn in OP barring profit hiding even as its cash pile approaches ¥100bn.

Mio Kato

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