Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Japan's first female leader since taking office in October 2025, dissolved the Lower House on January 23, triggering a snap general election on February 8</li>
<li>Positions the election as a referendum on her leadership and reflationary agenda.</li>
<li>A two-year suspension of the 8% consumption tax on food and beverages, have raised concerns over fiscal sustainability</li>
</ul>


Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Japan's first female leader since taking office in October 2025, dissolved the Lower House on January 23, triggering a snap general election on February 8
Positions the election as a referendum on her leadership and reflationary agenda.
A two-year suspension of the 8% consumption tax on food and beverages, have raised concerns over fiscal sustainability


Japan Strategy Weekly | Reflationary Push Amid Market Tensions

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> has been trending up for 3 weeks (including this week), our model flagged it as 'overbought'. Wall Street/Tokyo brokerages maintain medium-to-long-term bullish trajectories</li>
<li>Index rebalance will be official from October 1st: added Capcom, Kokusai Electric, and JX Advanced Metals, removing Archion, Konica Minolta, and Kanadevia.</li>
<li>The price-weighted index has been tilted further toward semiconductors, advanced manufacturing, tech growth, driving institutional flows into chip suppliers. Higher yields and potential further rate hikes present persistent headwind risk.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has been trending up for 3 weeks (including this week), our model flagged it as 'overbought'. Wall Street/Tokyo brokerages maintain medium-to-long-term bullish trajectories
Index rebalance will be official from October 1st: added Capcom, Kokusai Electric, and JX Advanced Metals, removing Archion, Konica Minolta, and Kanadevia.
The price-weighted index has been tilted further toward semiconductors, advanced manufacturing, tech growth, driving institutional flows into chip suppliers. Higher yields and potential further rate hikes present persistent headwind risk.


Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX): Tactical Outlook Post Index Rebalance (Pullback Forecast)

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>Oracle order for millions of homes worth of power consumption sends DC and server related higher.</li>
<li>Power semis also up as analysts continue to take a more constructive view.</li>
<li>Gaming names may bounce after yesterdays dip given they are seen as 'tariff proof' ahead of deadline.</li>
</ul>


Oracle order for millions of homes worth of power consumption sends DC and server related higher.
Power semis also up as analysts continue to take a more constructive view.
Gaming names may bounce after yesterdays dip given they are seen as 'tariff proof' ahead of deadline.


Japan Morning Connection: AI and Tech Snaps Back with SOX at Recent Highs

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.</li>
<li>Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.</li>
<li>As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
</ul>


We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.
Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.
As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).


Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$123-$123.50 remains short-term support to watch on ACWI-US (6.5-month base); we would expect support here on a pullback, but a break below it would likely mean a test of $119-$121</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.
$123-$123.50 remains short-term support to watch on ACWI-US (6.5-month base); we would expect support here on a pullback, but a break below it would likely mean a test of $119-$121


Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports

Japan

CAPCOM CO., LTD. develops consumer video game software.  The Company also develops, manufactures, markets, and leases arcade game machines.  Capcom also operates amusement facilities.

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Capcom Co Ltd (9697 JP)

Japan Strategy Weekly | Reflationary Push Amid Market Tensions

Japan's first female Prime Minister calls snap election, framing it as a referendum on her leadership and economic policies, including a...

Mark Chadwick

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX): Tactical Outlook Post Index Rebalance (Pullback Forecast)

The Nikkei 225 rallying on tech gains, but our model indicates a short-term overbought condition. We expect a 1-2 week pullback, details are...

Nico Rosti

Japan Morning Connection: AI and Tech Snaps Back with SOX at Recent Highs

DC and server-related stocks boosted by Oracle's deal, while power semiconductors rise with positive outlook. Gaming stocks may rebound after a...

Andrew Jackson

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding on $ACWI ($123-123.50), $EEM ($46)

Vermilion Research

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports $ACWI, $ACWX, ACWI ex-US Small-Caps, $EEM, and $EFA....

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Japan Strategy Weekly | Reflationary Push Amid Market Tensions

​Japan's first female Prime Minister calls snap election, framing it as a referendum on her leadership and economic policies, including a...

Mark Chadwick

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX): Tactical Outlook Post Index Rebalance (Pullback Forecast)

The Nikkei 225 rallying on tech gains, but our model indicates a short-term overbought condition. We expect a 1-2 week pullback, details are...

Nico Rosti

Japan Morning Connection: AI and Tech Snaps Back with SOX at Recent Highs

DC and server-related stocks boosted by Oracle's deal, while power semiconductors rise with positive outlook. Gaming stocks may rebound after a...

Andrew Jackson

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding on $ACWI ($123-123.50), $EEM ($46)

Vermilion Research

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports $ACWI, $ACWX, ACWI ex-US Small-Caps, $EEM, and $EFA....

Vermilion Research

Japan's first female Prime Minister calls snap election, framing it as a referendum on her leadership and economic policies, including a...