Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/tata-motors-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Tata Motors Ltd</a></li><li><a href='/entities/anton-oilfield-services-gp' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Anton Oilfield</a></li><li><a href='/entities/china-south-city-holdings' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>China South City</a></li><li><a href='/entities/panda-green-energy-group-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Panda Green</a></li><li><a href='/entities/gcl-new-energy-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Gcl New Energy Holdings</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:Tata Motors LtdAnton OilfieldChina South CityPanda GreenGcl New Energy Holdingsand more...

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Has there ever been so much disinformation, speculation and conjecture for a takeover of, ostensibly, a straightforward asset?
From the onset, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soho-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4123:1" rel="noopener">SOHO China Ltd (410 HK)</a> deal traded wide on concerns the transaction could turn political on account of the company's founder's son allegedly making salacious comments aimed at China's PLA around the time India and China engaged in skirmishes along the Sino-Indian border last year. 
A vacuum of any positive news and continued speculation reached a helm on the 29 July, following a vague media article suggesting the deal faced regulatory "obstacles." The shares cratered, falling 31% at one point, before "recovering" to $3.02/share, around the undisturbed price and ~40% adrift of the $5.00/share offer price.
Five days later a sister publication of the one behind the "obstacle" article, issued a note that several banks had obtained internal approvals for underwriting some of Blackstone Group’s loans to fund the Offer. Shares consequently popped.
But it appears there was considerably more substance behind that pop in price. 
Last Friday afternoon, after the close of market, SOHO announced that on 3 August 2021, Blackstone received a <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0806/2021080600685.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">notice</a> from SAMR dated 2 August that the case concerning its notification under the PRC Anti-Monopoly Law had been formally accepted by SAMR for review. 
Formal acceptance should be viewed as a major positive.  Less positive is that the application does not appear to a "simple procedure" review.  
More below the fold. 
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Has there ever been so much disinformation, speculation and conjecture for a takeover of, ostensibly, a straightforward asset?
From the onset, the SOHO China Ltd (410 HK) deal traded wide on concerns the transaction could turn political on account of the company's founder's son allegedly making salacious comments aimed at China's PLA around the time India and China engaged in skirmishes along the Sino-Indian border last year. 
A vacuum of any positive news and continued speculation reached a helm on the 29 July, following a vague media article suggesting the deal faced regulatory "obstacles." The shares cratered, falling 31% at one point, before "recovering" to $3.02/share, around the undisturbed price and ~40% adrift of the $5.00/share offer price.
Five days later a sister publication of the one behind the "obstacle" article, issued a note that several banks had obtained internal approvals for underwriting some of Blackstone Group’s loans to fund the Offer. Shares consequently popped.
But it appears there was considerably more substance behind that pop in price. 
Last Friday afternoon, after the close of market, SOHO announced that on 3 August 2021, Blackstone received a notice from SAMR dated 2 August that the case concerning its notification under the PRC Anti-Monopoly Law had been formally accepted by SAMR for review. 
Formal acceptance should be viewed as a major positive.  Less positive is that the application does not appear to a "simple procedure" review.  
More below the fold. 




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And we have a deal!
After a false start over a year ago, PRC commercial property-play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soho-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4123:1" rel="noopener">Soho China Ltd (410 HK)</a> has <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0616/2021061600985.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a pre-conditional Offer from the Blackstone Group at $5.00/share, a 31.6% premium to last close and a 57.6% premium over the average close of the last five trading days.
The pre-cons are mainly regulatory-related - this needs clearance from SAMR under PRC Anti-Monopoly Law
The key condition to the Offer itself requires 50% of the voting rights tendered within the Offer period. Founders Pan Shiyi and his wife Zhang Xin have given an irrevocable to tender 54.93% of shares out, leaving the couple with 9%. It is not Blackstone's intention to delist the company nor avail itself to the power of compulsory acquisition.
Therefore this deal is done once SAMR signs off. The only real risk to the deal is one of timing. The fact this is not a full takeover, involves a small-ish Tier 1 property play,  and Pan Shiyi remains invested, should smooth over the application. My guess is the application will be assessed as a simplified procedure or simple case. 
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As always, there is more below the fold.
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And we have a deal!
After a false start over a year ago, PRC commercial property-play Soho China Ltd (410 HK) has announced a pre-conditional Offer from the Blackstone Group at $5.00/share, a 31.6% premium to last close and a 57.6% premium over the average close of the last five trading days.
The pre-cons are mainly regulatory-related - this needs clearance from SAMR under PRC Anti-Monopoly Law
The key condition to the Offer itself requires 50% of the voting rights tendered within the Offer period. Founders Pan Shiyi and his wife Zhang Xin have given an irrevocable to tender 54.93% of shares out, leaving the couple with 9%. It is not Blackstone's intention to delist the company nor avail itself to the power of compulsory acquisition.
Therefore this deal is done once SAMR signs off. The only real risk to the deal is one of timing. The fact this is not a full takeover, involves a small-ish Tier 1 property play,  and Pan Shiyi remains invested, should smooth over the application. My guess is the application will be assessed as a simplified procedure or simple case. 


As always, there is more below the fold.


Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-2312'>Alam Sutera Realty</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-942'>Car Inc</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-18387'>CIFI Holdings</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-9757'>Fantasia Holdings Group Co</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-21047'>Ronshine China Holdings</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Alam Sutera RealtyCar IncCIFI HoldingsFantasia Holdings Group CoRonshine China Holdings

Morning Views Asia: Alam Sutera Realty, Car Inc, CIFI Holdings, Fantasia Holdings Group Co

China

CAR Inc. is a professional car rental service provider offering short-term rental, long-term rental, and financial leasing. The company provides a range of auto mobility solutions. It was founded in September 2007 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

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CAR (CAR HK)

Weekly Wrap - 26 Nov 2021

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

Weekly Wrap - 21 Nov 2021

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

SOHO China (410 HK): Time To Buy

Formal acceptance for review is a big positive development. Most deals in China are simply not accepted for review if they are a no-go - and the...

David Blennerhassett

SOHO China's (410 HK) Done & Dusted VGO

This is a very clean deal and should trade tight to terms. I think this could trade at $4.90 at the bell tomorrow, or 2.0%/9.8% annualised. There...

David Blennerhassett

Morning Views Asia: Alam Sutera Realty, Car Inc, CIFI Holdings, Fantasia Holdings Group Co

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

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