European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Having lagged competitors on share price basis since Holcim/Lafarge merger, on 29 January, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/holcim-ltd-7f60ceaa-51af-4f85-ac5f-114595eb04f3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27916:1" rel="noopener">Holcim (HOLN SW)</a> announced plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US.</li>
<li>Infrastructure and housing are reponsible for U.S. comparables to trade on 14.7x median EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA, in sharp contrast to 5.4x median EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA of European comparables. </li>
<li>Even if valuing the RoW business at the lower median European multiples, the spin-off should be value accretive. My fair value estimate of CHF 84.47/share represents 25.7% upside.</li>
</ul>


Having lagged competitors on share price basis since Holcim/Lafarge merger, on 29 January, Holcim (HOLN SW) announced plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US.
Infrastructure and housing are reponsible for U.S. comparables to trade on 14.7x median EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA, in sharp contrast to 5.4x median EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA of European comparables. 
Even if valuing the RoW business at the lower median European multiples, the spin-off should be value accretive. My fair value estimate of CHF 84.47/share represents 25.7% upside.


Guasty Winds Investment Ideas, Guasty Winds

Guasty Winds

Guasty Winds Investment Ideas

I am a full-time private investor, ex-L/S. I document my investment portfolio decisions and share my work here.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Carlisle’s earnings came in a little soft in the quarter, driven mostly by a greater magnitude of de-stock than first anticipated and some weather-related delays.</li>
<li>In addition, the company lowered guidance for the year for CCM with a hit to both margins and volumes.</li>
<li>I was already below guidance on margins for this year but I was too high on sales, and the deleverage has caused margins to come in &lt;30% for 2023.</li>
</ul>


Carlisle’s earnings came in a little soft in the quarter, driven mostly by a greater magnitude of de-stock than first anticipated and some weather-related delays.
In addition, the company lowered guidance for the year for CCM with a hit to both margins and volumes.
I was already below guidance on margins for this year but I was too high on sales, and the deleverage has caused margins to come in &lt;30% for 2023.


Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

<ul>
<li>This model seeks companies that are potentially “overearning”, defined as companies with unusually high margins relative to their own history or relative to the industry. </li>
<li>The reasons for the margin increases are sometimes unsustainable or fraudulent. The  critical judgement involves to what extent unsustainable margins are embedded in a company’s forecasts and/or the stock’s valuation. </li>
<li>These shorts tend to have moderate to higher betas, higher valuations due to recent strong results and good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings.</li>
</ul>


This model seeks companies that are potentially “overearning”, defined as companies with unusually high margins relative to their own history or relative to the industry. 
The reasons for the margin increases are sometimes unsustainable or fraudulent. The  critical judgement involves to what extent unsustainable margins are embedded in a company’s forecasts and/or the stock’s valuation. 
These shorts tend to have moderate to higher betas, higher valuations due to recent strong results and good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings.


Weekly Overearning Short Candidates:  Albemarle, Builders FirstSource, Mueller Indus., Carlisle Cos.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Encouraging developments continue to pour in. Over the past week we have seen dramatic improvements that could be setting the stage for a broad-based advance. We highlight these improvements in this report, along with what we would like to see in order to have confidence in labeling this a bull market.  In today’s report we also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy, Financials, Manufacturing, and Technology: Refining, Banks, Super-Regional, Industrial, Diversified, Large-Cap, and Data Storage Solutions &amp; Devices, Large-Cap.

Encouraging developments continue to pour in. Over the past week we have seen dramatic improvements that could be setting the stage for a broad-based advance. We highlight these improvements in this report, along with what we would like to see in order to have confidence in labeling this a bull market.  In today’s report we also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy, Financials, Manufacturing, and Technology: Refining, Banks, Super-Regional, Industrial, Diversified, Large-Cap, and Data Storage Solutions &amp; Devices, Large-Cap.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Dramatic Improvement

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In this piece I look at the failure of HK to meet its challenges, especially since 1997, while contrasting in less depth the different approach Singapore has maintained.HK is stuffed on several levels – until prices have a significant correction.I think we could write a few tales on Singapore vs Hong Kong:1) SMRT vs HK MTRC… (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mtr-66-hk-conviction-sell-thesis" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:7982">MTR (66 HK): Conviction Sell Thesis</a>) and other recent points on the MTRC)2) PSA vs HIT/Hutch and HK Ports…3) Singapore vs HK middle classes, and the oppression of high prices

In this piece I look at the failure of HK to meet its challenges, especially since 1997, while contrasting in less depth the different approach Singapore has maintained.HK is stuffed on several levels – until prices have a significant correction.I think we could write a few tales on Singapore vs Hong Kong:1) SMRT vs HK MTRC… (see MTR (66 HK): Conviction Sell Thesis) and other recent points on the MTRC)2) PSA vs HIT/Hutch and HK Ports…3) Singapore vs HK middle classes, and the oppression of high prices

The Decline of the Entrepôt Economy, HK's Fall from Grace...The Socio-Political & Economic Drivers

United States

Carlisle Companies Incorporated manufactures and distributes construction materials, transportation products, and general industry products.  The Company manufactures a variety of products for the roofing, real estate, construction, trucking, food-service, aircraft manufacturing, lawn and garden, and other industries.

Carlisle Cos (CSL US)

Value from US Spin-Off

Holcim plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US, which should be value accretive and could result in a 25.7% upside.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Carlisle (CSL-US) 1Q23 Update

Carlisle’s earnings came in a little soft in the quarter, driven mostly by a greater magnitude of de-stock than first anticipated and some weather...

Guasty Winds

Weekly Overearning Short Candidates: Albemarle, Builders FirstSource, Mueller Indus., Carlisle Cos.

Margin over-earners are fertile hunting ground for shorts if the reasons for the margin increase are unsustainable. This week: Albemarle, Builders...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

U.S. Equity Strategy: Dramatic Improvement

Encouraging developments continue to pour in. Over the past week we have seen dramatic improvements that could be setting the stage for a...

Vermilion Research

The Decline of the Entrepôt Economy, HK's Fall from Grace...The Socio-Political & Economic Drivers

In this piece I look at the failure of HK to meet its challenges, especially since 1997, while contrasting in less depth the different approach...

Charles De Trenck

Value from US Spin-Off

​Holcim plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US, which should be value accretive and could result in a 25.7% upside.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Carlisle (CSL-US) 1Q23 Update

Carlisle’s earnings came in a little soft in the quarter, driven mostly by a greater magnitude of de-stock than first anticipated and some weather...

Guasty Winds

Weekly Overearning Short Candidates: Albemarle, Builders FirstSource, Mueller Indus., Carlisle Cos.

Margin over-earners are fertile hunting ground for shorts if the reasons for the margin increase are unsustainable. This week: Albemarle, Builders...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

U.S. Equity Strategy: Dramatic Improvement

Encouraging developments continue to pour in. Over the past week we have seen dramatic improvements that could be setting the stage for a...

Vermilion Research

The Decline of the Entrepôt Economy, HK's Fall from Grace...The Socio-Political & Economic Drivers

In this piece I look at the failure of HK to meet its challenges, especially since 1997, while contrasting in less depth the different approach...

Charles De Trenck

Holcim plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US, which should be value accretive and could result in a 25.7% upside.