Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>The rankings used for the September 2024 index rebal event will be based on yesterday's (4th September 2024) opening prices.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a final look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the rankings for the upcoming review.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
The rankings used for the September 2024 index rebal event will be based on yesterday's (4th September 2024) opening prices.
In this insight, we take a final look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the rankings for the upcoming review.


Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Sep 24 Rebal (Final): 2 Changes Possible

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>The rankings used for the June 2024 index rebal event will be decided based on the opening prices tomorrow (6th June 2024).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a final look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the rankings for the upcoming review.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
The rankings used for the June 2024 index rebal event will be decided based on the opening prices tomorrow (6th June 2024).
In this insight, we take a final look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the rankings for the upcoming review.


Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Jun 24: Ranks to Be Finalized Tomorrow; 2 Changes Possible

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Having lagged competitors on share price basis since Holcim/Lafarge merger, on 29 January, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/holcim-ltd-7f60ceaa-51af-4f85-ac5f-114595eb04f3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27916:1" rel="noopener">Holcim (HOLN SW)</a> announced plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US.</li>
<li>Infrastructure and housing are reponsible for U.S. comparables to trade on 14.7x median EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA, in sharp contrast to 5.4x median EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA of European comparables. </li>
<li>Even if valuing the RoW business at the lower median European multiples, the spin-off should be value accretive. My fair value estimate of CHF 84.47/share represents 25.7% upside.</li>
</ul>


Having lagged competitors on share price basis since Holcim/Lafarge merger, on 29 January, Holcim (HOLN SW) announced plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US.
Infrastructure and housing are reponsible for U.S. comparables to trade on 14.7x median EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA, in sharp contrast to 5.4x median EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA of European comparables. 
Even if valuing the RoW business at the lower median European multiples, the spin-off should be value accretive. My fair value estimate of CHF 84.47/share represents 25.7% upside.


Guasty Winds Investment Ideas, Guasty Winds

Guasty Winds

Guasty Winds Investment Ideas

I am a full-time private investor, ex-L/S. I document my investment portfolio decisions and share my work here.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Carlisle’s earnings came in a little soft in the quarter, driven mostly by a greater magnitude of de-stock than first anticipated and some weather-related delays.</li>
<li>In addition, the company lowered guidance for the year for CCM with a hit to both margins and volumes.</li>
<li>I was already below guidance on margins for this year but I was too high on sales, and the deleverage has caused margins to come in &lt;30% for 2023.</li>
</ul>


Carlisle’s earnings came in a little soft in the quarter, driven mostly by a greater magnitude of de-stock than first anticipated and some weather-related delays.
In addition, the company lowered guidance for the year for CCM with a hit to both margins and volumes.
I was already below guidance on margins for this year but I was too high on sales, and the deleverage has caused margins to come in &lt;30% for 2023.


Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

<ul>
<li>This model seeks companies that are potentially “overearning”, defined as companies with unusually high margins relative to their own history or relative to the industry. </li>
<li>The reasons for the margin increases are sometimes unsustainable or fraudulent. The  critical judgement involves to what extent unsustainable margins are embedded in a company’s forecasts and/or the stock’s valuation. </li>
<li>These shorts tend to have moderate to higher betas, higher valuations due to recent strong results and good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings.</li>
</ul>


This model seeks companies that are potentially “overearning”, defined as companies with unusually high margins relative to their own history or relative to the industry. 
The reasons for the margin increases are sometimes unsustainable or fraudulent. The  critical judgement involves to what extent unsustainable margins are embedded in a company’s forecasts and/or the stock’s valuation. 
These shorts tend to have moderate to higher betas, higher valuations due to recent strong results and good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings.


Weekly Overearning Short Candidates:  Albemarle, Builders FirstSource, Mueller Indus., Carlisle Cos.

United States

Carlisle Companies Incorporated manufactures and distributes construction materials, transportation products, and general industry products.  The Company manufactures a variety of products for the roofing, real estate, construction, trucking, food-service, aircraft manufacturing, lawn and garden, and other industries.

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Carlisle Cos (CSL US)

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Sep 24 Rebal (Final): 2 Changes Possible

The SP500 Rebalance for Sep 2024 is based off the Wednesday open and should be announced on 6 Sep 2024. We see two possible ADDs vs DELETEs but the...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Jun 24: Ranks to Be Finalized Tomorrow; 2 Changes Possible

The S&P500 review will be announced on Friday. The reference price used will be Thursday's opening price. We expect up to two changes, but would...

Travis Lundy

Value from US Spin-Off

Holcim plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US, which should be value accretive and could result in a 25.7% upside.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Carlisle (CSL-US) 1Q23 Update

Carlisle’s earnings came in a little soft in the quarter, driven mostly by a greater magnitude of de-stock than first anticipated and some weather...

Guasty Winds

Weekly Overearning Short Candidates: Albemarle, Builders FirstSource, Mueller Indus., Carlisle Cos.

Margin over-earners are fertile hunting ground for shorts if the reasons for the margin increase are unsustainable. This week: Albemarle, Builders...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Sep 24 Rebal (Final): 2 Changes Possible

The SP500 Rebalance for Sep 2024 is based off the Wednesday open and should be announced on 6 Sep 2024. We see two possible ADDs vs DELETEs but the...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Jun 24: Ranks to Be Finalized Tomorrow; 2 Changes Possible

The S&P500 review will be announced on Friday. The reference price used will be Thursday's opening price. We expect up to two changes, but would...

Travis Lundy

Value from US Spin-Off

​Holcim plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US, which should be value accretive and could result in a 25.7% upside.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Carlisle (CSL-US) 1Q23 Update

Carlisle’s earnings came in a little soft in the quarter, driven mostly by a greater magnitude of de-stock than first anticipated and some weather...

Guasty Winds

Weekly Overearning Short Candidates: Albemarle, Builders FirstSource, Mueller Indus., Carlisle Cos.

Margin over-earners are fertile hunting ground for shorts if the reasons for the margin increase are unsustainable. This week: Albemarle, Builders...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Holcim plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US, which should be value accretive and could result in a 25.7% upside.