European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>March saw broad-based tightening across Europe’s dual-class universe, reversing February’s dispersion widening. Both the median and mean moved towards convergence, driven by retracement in structurally wide spreads.</li>
<li>Liquidity-Driven convergence reasserted itself in Fuchs, Carlsberg, Grifols and Sixt, while Handelsbanken remained the dominant structural anomaly despite meaningful tightening.</li>
<li>Telecom Italia continues to behave as a dividend-anchored structure, but with the approved savings conversion, convergence is increasingly shaped by corporate action rather than pure market arbitrage.</li>
</ul>


March saw broad-based tightening across Europe’s dual-class universe, reversing February’s dispersion widening. Both the median and mean moved towards convergence, driven by retracement in structurally wide spreads.
Liquidity-Driven convergence reasserted itself in Fuchs, Carlsberg, Grifols and Sixt, while Handelsbanken remained the dominant structural anomaly despite meaningful tightening.
Telecom Italia continues to behave as a dividend-anchored structure, but with the approved savings conversion, convergence is increasingly shaped by corporate action rather than pure market arbitrage.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March '26 Report

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our outlook remains unchanged as the weight of the evidence continues to suggest a mixed, but overall constructive market. Cyclical value Sectors continue to be our favorite areas to overweight (i.e., Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation), while defensive Sectors also continue to be worth a look (i.e., Staples, Health Care, and Real Estate).

Our outlook remains unchanged as the weight of the evidence continues to suggest a mixed, but overall constructive market. Cyclical value Sectors continue to be our favorite areas to overweight (i.e., Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation), while defensive Sectors also continue to be worth a look (i.e., Staples, Health Care, and Real Estate). 

Global Equity Strategy: Value Remains Leadership But Defensives Improving

Danieli & C. Officine Meccaniche / Event-Driven

Danieli & C. Officine Meccaniche (DAN IM)

<ul>
<li>
February saw dispersion widen modestly, with the median stable but the mean rising as structural right-tail spreads re-expanded.</li>
<li>Liquidity-Driven convergence worked selectively (Carlsberg, Fuchs), reinforcing the episodic nature of ord/pref tightening.</li>
<li>Structural anomalies persist, with Danieli widening and Handelsbanken remaining the universe’s dominant dispersion outlier.</li>
</ul>



February saw dispersion widen modestly, with the median stable but the mean rising as structural right-tail spreads re-expanded.
Liquidity-Driven convergence worked selectively (Carlsberg, Fuchs), reinforcing the episodic nature of ord/pref tightening.
Structural anomalies persist, with Danieli widening and Handelsbanken remaining the universe’s dominant dispersion outlier.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: February '26 Report

At this point in time the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM) have failed to break above their respective resistance levels, leaving us squarely in the neutral camp. We believe the aforementioned major global indexes are likely to remain below resistance or have limited upside unless and until we see more definitive signs of bottoming within cyclical value areas of the market. In this report we recap important technical levels for the major indexes and highlight actionable set-ups within the utilities, travel and leisure and consumer staples industries.

At this point in time the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM) have failed to break above their respective resistance levels, leaving us squarely in the neutral camp. We believe the aforementioned major global indexes are likely to remain below resistance or have limited upside unless and until we see more definitive signs of bottoming within cyclical value areas of the market. In this report we recap important technical levels for the major indexes and highlight actionable set-ups within the utilities, travel and leisure and consumer staples industries.

Global Equity Strategy: Squarely in the Neutral Camp

<ul>
<li>January saw post year-end normalisation, with selective convergence resuming while the median voting premium remained stable, confirming no systemic repricing of control across Europe’s dual-class universe.</li>
<li>Liquidity and structure drove outcomes, with convergence working in scalable, index-exposed pairs, while a small number of structurally constrained names continued to dominate dispersion.</li>
<li>Opportunities remain selective into 2026, favouring liquidity-driven convergence and balance-sheet normalisation, while extreme Nordic dislocations persist as high-dispersion, structurally constrained trades.</li>
</ul>


January saw post year-end normalisation, with selective convergence resuming while the median voting premium remained stable, confirming no systemic repricing of control across Europe’s dual-class universe.
Liquidity and structure drove outcomes, with convergence working in scalable, index-exposed pairs, while a small number of structurally constrained names continued to dominate dispersion.
Opportunities remain selective into 2026, favouring liquidity-driven convergence and balance-sheet normalisation, while extreme Nordic dislocations persist as high-dispersion, structurally constrained trades.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: January '26 Report

Denmark

Carlsberg A/S is an international brewing company. The Company produces branded beers and regional brands. Carlsberg makes most of its beer outside of Denmark, and it is sold in markets around the world. The Company also markets and produces soft drinks, water, and wine.

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Carlsberg A/S (CARLB DC)

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March '26 Report

March saw convergence across European dual-class shares, with dispersion narrowing as liquidity returned. Structural outliers persist, while...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Global Equity Strategy: Value Remains Leadership But Defensives Improving

Cyclical value Sectors continue to be our favorite areas to overweight, while defensive Sectors also continue to be worth a look (i.e., Staples,...

Vermilion Research

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: February '26 Report

February brought mild widening in Europe’s dual-class spreads, but no systemic repricing of voting rights. Dispersion remains driven by structural...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Global Equity Strategy: Squarely in the Neutral Camp

At this point in time the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM) have failed to break above their respective resistance levels,...

Vermilion Research

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: January '26 Report

January confirmed dispersion without repricing in European dual-class stocks: liquidity and structure drove selective convergence, while a few...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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