IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a>’s BeerCo is once again pre-marketing an SGX IPO to raise US$0.8-1.0 billion (vs US$2 billion previously), according to press reports. </li>
<li>In 1HFY2022, the group revenue returned to growth due to Vietnam. The easing of restrictions in Thailand should boost volumes in 2HFY2022.  </li>
<li>Creditably despite rising raw material costs, the margins remained steady helped by forward buying contracts. However, the unwinding of the forward contracts will likely lead to margin pressures in FY2023.</li>
</ul>



Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)’s BeerCo is once again pre-marketing an SGX IPO to raise US$0.8-1.0 billion (vs US$2 billion previously), according to press reports. 
In 1HFY2022, the group revenue returned to growth due to Vietnam. The easing of restrictions in Thailand should boost volumes in 2HFY2022.  
Creditably despite rising raw material costs, the margins remained steady helped by forward buying contracts. However, the unwinding of the forward contracts will likely lead to margin pressures in FY2023.


ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: Third Time’s the Charm?

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Malaysia's reopening play for the consumption sector is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/heineken-malaysia-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12647:1" rel="noopener">Heineken Malaysia Bhd (HEIM MK)</a> .</li>
<li>Q1 22 revenue has bounced back to Q4 19 level and higher than Q1 2019 by 33% before taking into account the potential upside since the reopening of the nightlife.</li>
<li>Compared to other consumer names in Malaysia such as Carlsberg Malaysia, British American Tobacco, Nestle (Malaysia), and QL Resources, Heineken Malaysia is trading at a discount.</li>
</ul>


Malaysia's reopening play for the consumption sector is Heineken Malaysia Bhd (HEIM MK) .
Q1 22 revenue has bounced back to Q4 19 level and higher than Q1 2019 by 33% before taking into account the potential upside since the reopening of the nightlife.
Compared to other consumer names in Malaysia such as Carlsberg Malaysia, British American Tobacco, Nestle (Malaysia), and QL Resources, Heineken Malaysia is trading at a discount.


<p><strong>The moment of reckoning for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> is here</strong>; Phuket Sandbox has given a trial for the tourism reopening, a high and progressing inoculation rate of the tourists' origin countries such as China and Malaysia allow, and the upcoming lifting of quarantine for vaccinated tourists starting November 1st will increase the number of tourists visiting Thailand.</p>
<p>Phuket is the only place in Thailand where alcoholic beverages are allowed to be sold and consumed on-premises but sooner rather than later, the policy will be applied to the whole nation benefiting Thai Beverage. The time to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) </a>is now. </p>

The moment of reckoning for Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) is here; Phuket Sandbox has given a trial for the tourism reopening, a high and progressing inoculation rate of the tourists' origin countries such as China and Malaysia allow, and the upcoming lifting of quarantine for vaccinated tourists starting November 1st will increase the number of tourists visiting Thailand.
Phuket is the only place in Thailand where alcoholic beverages are allowed to be sold and consumed on-premises but sooner rather than later, the policy will be applied to the whole nation benefiting Thai Beverage. The time to buy Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) is now. 

<p>Stable result in Q2 2021 despite the increasing COVID-19 cases in Thailand from nightclubs and concerts prompting the Thai government to extend the ban for nightlife entertainment. The interesting part is that contrary to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)'s </a>observation that the Thais are quite happy to drink and socialize at home versus Vietnamese, who tend to consume outside the home, Sabeco (Saigon Bev Company)'s sales volume actually went up during this period and lifted <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> results, further reiterating that the Thai may be happy to drink at home but the difficult period has dampened their home drinking appetite. </p><p>Thai Beverage is still trading at a lower valuation to its peak, the current valuation at 17x PER is still higher than 14x forward PER.  The recent Q2 2021 result brought some optimism especially when the management displayed cost savings ability but the spirits and beer outlook remain soft as long as the pandemic is still there. </p>

Stable result in Q2 2021 despite the increasing COVID-19 cases in Thailand from nightclubs and concerts prompting the Thai government to extend the ban for nightlife entertainment. The interesting part is that contrary to Berli Jucker (BJC TB)'s observation that the Thais are quite happy to drink and socialize at home versus Vietnamese, who tend to consume outside the home, Sabeco (Saigon Bev Company)'s sales volume actually went up during this period and lifted Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) results, further reiterating that the Thai may be happy to drink at home but the difficult period has dampened their home drinking appetite. Thai Beverage is still trading at a lower valuation to its peak, the current valuation at 17x PER is still higher than 14x forward PER.  The recent Q2 2021 result brought some optimism especially when the management displayed cost savings ability but the spirits and beer outlook remain soft as long as the pandemic is still there. 

Thai Beverage (THBEV): Weak Quarter Ahead

<p>The two weeks nightlife ban has been put in place by the Thai government and possible further extension if this third wave is not resolved soon enough as the increase in the daily community cases have reached the second wave level. If things do not go under control soon enough, we should expect a stricter measure from the Thai government which means a further extension of the nightlife ban.</p>
<div>Compared to other listed breweries in the region, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> is trading at 65% PER discount, 78% PBR discount, and 51% EV/EBITDA discount. Compared to November last year, the valuation gap with the peers remains on the same level with the exception of EV/EBITDA where Thai Bev's high D/E (120%) is the possible cause. </div>
<div></div>
<div>Compared to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-all-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13889:1" rel="noopener">CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airports-of-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:239:1" rel="noopener">Airports of Thailand (AOT TB)</a> , Thai Beverage is trading at 50% PER discount, 54% PBR discount, and 24% EV/EBITDA discount - the gap somewhat narrowed but Thai Bev remains undervalued. </div>
<div></div>
<p>Since 6 months ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> has been trading at a discount compared to the peers due to the bigger exposure in domestic tourism. With the reinstatement of the nightlife ban, Thai Bev is likely to trade at discount to the peers until the third wave pandemic is solved and vaccination has started to take place.</p>

The two weeks nightlife ban has been put in place by the Thai government and possible further extension if this third wave is not resolved soon enough as the increase in the daily community cases have reached the second wave level. If things do not go under control soon enough, we should expect a stricter measure from the Thai government which means a further extension of the nightlife ban.
Compared to other listed breweries in the region, Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) is trading at 65% PER discount, 78% PBR discount, and 51% EV/EBITDA discount. Compared to November last year, the valuation gap with the peers remains on the same level with the exception of EV/EBITDA where Thai Bev's high D/E (120%) is the possible cause. 

Compared to CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB) and Airports of Thailand (AOT TB) , Thai Beverage is trading at 50% PER discount, 54% PBR discount, and 24% EV/EBITDA discount - the gap somewhat narrowed but Thai Bev remains undervalued. 

Since 6 months ago, Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) has been trading at a discount compared to the peers due to the bigger exposure in domestic tourism. With the reinstatement of the nightlife ban, Thai Bev is likely to trade at discount to the peers until the third wave pandemic is solved and vaccination has started to take place.

Thai Beverage (THBEV): Not the Time to Buy Yet

Malaysia

Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Berhad manufactures beer, stout, shandy, and nonalcoholic beverages for distribution in the home market and for export.

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Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia (CAB MK)

ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: Third Time’s the Charm?

BeerCo is once again pre-marketing an SGX IPO to raise US$0.8-1.0 billion. In this note, we look at the latest set of results and highlight the key...

Arun George

Heineken Malaysia (HEIM): Brewing

Revenue bounced to pre-COVID level due to the management's expertise in navigating the difficult period during the lockdown, the company will...

Henry Soediarko

Thai Beverage (THBEV): All Stars Aligned

Phuket is the only place that alcoholic beverages are allowed to be sold on-premises. Soon, the policy will be applied to the whole nation...

Henry Soediarko

Thai Beverage (THBEV): Weak Quarter Ahead

Q2 2021 result brought some optimism especially when the management displayed cost savings ability but the spirits and beer outlook remain soft as...

Henry Soediarko

Thai Beverage (THBEV): Not the Time to Buy Yet

Thai Bev is likely to trade at discount to the peers until the third wave pandemic is solved and vaccination has started to take place.

Henry Soediarko

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