Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Dec 5th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD19,761m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Carta, Toyoda Gosei, Lasertec, Advantest, SoftBank, Mitsui E&amp;S, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Disco, Daihen, Nintendo, Carta, Toyoda Gosei, Lasertec, Advantest, Softbank.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Dec 5th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD19,761m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Carta, Toyoda Gosei, Lasertec, Advantest, SoftBank, Mitsui E&amp;S, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Disco, Daihen, Nintendo, Carta, Toyoda Gosei, Lasertec, Advantest, Softbank.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Dec 5th): Carta, Toyoda Gosei, Lasertec, Advantest, SoftBank, Mitsui E&S

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SilverCape has launched a hostile preconditional tender offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digital-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1697:1" rel="noopener">Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP)</a> at JPY2,380, a 20.8% premium to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hakuhodo-dy-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8736:1" rel="noopener">Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP)</a> JPY1,970 offer. </li>
<li>The Board stonewalled SilverCape’s attempts to negotiate a friendly offer. SilverCape’s offer is based on EV/EBITDA multiples and will commence in late November.</li>
<li>The situation shares similarities with Soft99's contested offer. The Board is likely to oppose the SilverCape offer. Hakuhodo’s likely move will be to extend the close and disclose current acceptances. </li>
</ul>


SilverCape has launched a hostile preconditional tender offer for Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) at JPY2,380, a 20.8% premium to the Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) JPY1,970 offer. 
The Board stonewalled SilverCape’s attempts to negotiate a friendly offer. SilverCape’s offer is based on EV/EBITDA multiples and will commence in late November.
The situation shares similarities with Soft99's contested offer. The Board is likely to oppose the SilverCape offer. Hakuhodo’s likely move will be to extend the close and disclose current acceptances. 


Digital Holdings (2389 JP): SilverCape Counters with a Hostile Preconditional Offer

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>For Sep 2025, nine new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of only ~US$3bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~56%, with a year-to-date average of ~48%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For Sep 2025, nine new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of only ~US$3bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~56%, with a year-to-date average of ~48%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Sep 2025 Wrap: ReNew Energy Global, Digital Hold., Mandom, Paramount Bed, Spindex

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a>'s IPO is, arguably, priced reasonably. Yet, no matter how you slice it, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)</a> has overshot the mark.</li>
<li>KKR's lock up in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> expires in less than three weeks. It's not ideal stepping in front of fast-moving trains, so challenging to recommend a full-throated short.</li>
<li>Abu Dhabis' ADNOC walks away from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santos-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:711:1" rel="noopener">Santos Ltd (STO AU)</a>. That was, realistically, the most likely outcome.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2259 HK)'s IPO is, arguably, priced reasonably. Yet, no matter how you slice it, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK) has overshot the mark.
KKR's lock up in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) expires in less than three weeks. It's not ideal stepping in front of fast-moving trains, so challenging to recommend a full-throated short.
Abu Dhabis' ADNOC walks away from Santos Ltd (STO AU). That was, realistically, the most likely outcome.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Zijin Mining/Gold, Kokusai Electric, Santos, Krungthai Card

<ul>
<li>I tally 37 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>No new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week. Although <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35025:1" rel="noopener">ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emeco-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8126:1" rel="noopener">Emeco Holdings (EHL AU)</a> appear to be in the crosshairs. </li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smartpay-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45153:1" rel="noopener">SmartPay Holdings (SMP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/humm-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35366:1" rel="noopener">Humm Group (HUM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jinke-smart-services-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29214:1" rel="noopener">Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shibaura-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12704:1" rel="noopener">Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soft99-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18486:1" rel="noopener">Soft99 (4464 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ci-medical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26170:1" rel="noopener">Ci Medical (3540 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 37 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
No new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week. Although ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK) and Emeco Holdings (EHL AU) appear to be in the crosshairs. 
Key updates/news took place on SmartPay Holdings (SMP AU), Humm Group (HUM AU), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Soft99 (4464 JP), and Ci Medical (3540 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Shibaura, ANE, Emeco, SmartPay, Humm, Jinke Smart Service, Soft99, Ci Medical

Japan

Carta Holdings, Inc. provides on-line information retrieval services on a contract or fee basis.

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Carta Holdings, Inc. (3688 JP)

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Dec 5th): Carta, Toyoda Gosei, Lasertec, Advantest, SoftBank, Mitsui E&S

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Carta (3688 JP), Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP), Lasertec (6920 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Digital Holdings (2389 JP): SilverCape Counters with a Hostile Preconditional Offer

The situation shares similarities with Soft99 tender. The Board is likely to oppose the SilverCape offer. Hakuhodo’s likely move will be to extend...

Arun George

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Sep 2025 Wrap: ReNew Energy Global, Digital Hold., Mandom, Paramount Bed, Spindex

For the month of Sept, 7 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$2bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Zijin Mining/Gold, Kokusai Electric, Santos, Krungthai Card

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Shibaura, ANE, Emeco, SmartPay, Humm, Jinke Smart Service, Soft99, Ci Medical

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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