Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Carvana's recent earnings call provides a comprehensive view of its performance for the third quarter of 2025.</li><li>The company reported strong growth in multiple key areas, setting new records for retail units sold, revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and GAAP operating income.</li><li>Retail units sold increased by 44% year-over-year, reaching 155,941, while revenue rose by 55% to a new high of $5.647 billion, indicative of higher selling prices and strategic partnerships.</li></ul>

Carvana's recent earnings call provides a comprehensive view of its performance for the third quarter of 2025.The company reported strong growth in multiple key areas, setting new records for retail units sold, revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and GAAP operating income.Retail units sold increased by 44% year-over-year, reaching 155,941, while revenue rose by 55% to a new high of $5.647 billion, indicative of higher selling prices and strategic partnerships.

Carvana Co: Expansion Into EVs, Franchise Dealership Acquisitions & Key Growth Levers!

<ul><li>Carvana's latest quarterly results demonstrate significant growth and profitability improvements, yet they also underscore challenges and strategic developments with both positive and negative aspects.</li><li>During the second quarter, Carvana reported a substantial increase in retail units sold, totaling 143,280, marking a 41% rise from the previous year.</li><li>Revenue grew by 42% to $4.8 billion, setting company records.</li></ul>

Carvana's latest quarterly results demonstrate significant growth and profitability improvements, yet they also underscore challenges and strategic developments with both positive and negative aspects.During the second quarter, Carvana reported a substantial increase in retail units sold, totaling 143,280, marking a 41% rise from the previous year.Revenue grew by 42% to $4.8 billion, setting company records.

Carvana Has Built A Next-Gen Auto Loan Sale Strategy But Will It Be Enough?

<ul><li>Carvana Co.'s latest earnings for Q1 2025 highlighted several key achievements as well as ongoing challenges.</li><li>The company reported robust growth across several financial metrics, reflecting the effectiveness of its business model in a competitive and fragmented automotive retail industry.</li><li>On the positive side, Carvana achieved record retail units sold at 133,898, representing a 46% increase year over-year.</li></ul>

Carvana Co.'s latest earnings for Q1 2025 highlighted several key achievements as well as ongoing challenges.The company reported robust growth across several financial metrics, reflecting the effectiveness of its business model in a competitive and fragmented automotive retail industry.On the positive side, Carvana achieved record retail units sold at 133,898, representing a 46% increase year over-year.

Carvana Co.: Is The Third-Party Marketplace Expansion Its Secret Weapon For Growth?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>A weak 20-year note auction last Wednesday sparked the first semi-meaningful pullback since this lockout rally began April 22nd, when we turned short-term bullish (4/22/25Compass) as SPX was testing 5100-5120.</li>
<li>We will be watching the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields closely, as both are approaching important resistance levels (more on that below).</li>
<li>Unsurprisingly, SPX only tested short-term gap support on the pullback at 5700-5785, where we said to expect support in last week's Compass (5/20/25). Expect this gap support to hold.</li>
</ul>


A weak 20-year note auction last Wednesday sparked the first semi-meaningful pullback since this lockout rally began April 22nd, when we turned short-term bullish (4/22/25Compass) as SPX was testing 5100-5120.
We will be watching the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields closely, as both are approaching important resistance levels (more on that below).
Unsurprisingly, SPX only tested short-term gap support on the pullback at 5700-5785, where we said to expect support in last week's Compass (5/20/25). Expect this gap support to hold.


Upgrading Consumer Discretionary (XLY) To Overweight; 5700-5785 SPX Gap Support Holding as Expected

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We had a near-term bullish outlook on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) from 4/22/25 to 11/19/25.</li>
<li>After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 report last week, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 report).</li>
<li>We'll stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ hold. We believe SPX,QQQ, and IWM are in a new "lockout rally"</li>
</ul>


We had a near-term bullish outlook on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) from 4/22/25 to 11/19/25.
After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 report last week, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 report).
We'll stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ hold. We believe SPX,QQQ, and IWM are in a new "lockout rally"


New Lockout Rally Underway on SPX, QQQ, and IWM? Yes. Here Is Why. Still Bullish

United States

Carvana Co. operates an online platform for buying used cars. The Company offers test drives, vehicle financing, and car reviews. Carvana serves customers in the United States.

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Carvana (CVNA US)

Carvana Co: Expansion Into EVs, Franchise Dealership Acquisitions & Key Growth Levers!

Carvana's recent earnings call provides a comprehensive view of its performance for the third quarter of 2025. The company reported strong growth...

Baptista Research

Carvana Has Built A Next-Gen Auto Loan Sale Strategy But Will It Be Enough?

Carvana's latest quarterly results demonstrate significant growth and profitability improvements, yet they also underscore challenges and...

Baptista Research

Carvana Co.: Is The Third-Party Marketplace Expansion Its Secret Weapon For Growth?

Carvana Co.'s latest earnings for Q1 2025 highlighted several key achievements as well as ongoing challenges. The company reported robust growth...

Baptista Research

Upgrading Consumer Discretionary (XLY) To Overweight; 5700-5785 SPX Gap Support Holding as Expected

Upgrading Consumer Discretionary $XLY to Overweight; 5700-5785 $SPX Gap Support Holding as we expected/discussed last week. 4.7-4.8% on 10y...

Vermilion Research

New Lockout Rally Underway on SPX, QQQ, and IWM? Yes. Here Is Why. Still Bullish

New Lockout Rally Underway on $SPX, $QQQ, and $IWM? Yes. The last time we made this same claim was in our 5/6/25 Compass report. Still Near-Term...

Vermilion Research

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