Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener"></a>'s recent outperformance is predicted on a (perceived) greater flexibility to shift capacity/routes versus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1080:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (A) (601111 CH)</a>, and proportionately less Middle East exposure.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Cathay/Air China  - and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wh-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13200:1" rel="noopener">WH Group (288 HK)</a> - are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)'s recent outperformance is predicted on a (perceived) greater flexibility to shift capacity/routes versus Air China Ltd (A) (601111 CH), and proportionately less Middle East exposure.
Preceding my comments on Cathay/Air China  - and WH Group (288 HK) - are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Cathay Air Outperforming Air China; And WH Group Outperforming Smithfield

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a>'s Jan figures suggest a good start, as passenger traffic grew 12.3% despite a high base in the last year.  </li>
<li>The market consensus forecast of 8% profit decline for FY26 is too conservative. Even on such a forecast, it still trades on an undemanding 9.3x PER and 4.8% yield.</li>
<li>CX is expected to have an average FY25-27F ROE of 15.9%, the highest level in the last 15 years. Hence, its P/B of 1.35x is inexpensive.</li>
</ul>



Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)'s Jan figures suggest a good start, as passenger traffic grew 12.3% despite a high base in the last year.  
The market consensus forecast of 8% profit decline for FY26 is too conservative. Even on such a forecast, it still trades on an undemanding 9.3x PER and 4.8% yield.
CX is expected to have an average FY25-27F ROE of 15.9%, the highest level in the last 15 years. Hence, its P/B of 1.35x is inexpensive.


<ul>
<li>Back on the 5th November 2025, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a>  <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/1105/2025110502046.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it planned to acquire Qatar Airways' 9.57% stake at HK$10.8374/share, or an outlay of HK$6.96bn (~US$890mn).</li>
<li>This development required SFC approval (granting a MGO waiver), as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (19 HK)</a>'s stake in Cathay increased to 47.69% (from 43.12%); and Air China’s stake to 31.78% (from 28.74%).</li>
<li>Curiously, Air China has now entered into a share placing agreement, the result of which would see its stake settle at 29.98% after the Qatar Airways buyback.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 5th November 2025, Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)  announced it planned to acquire Qatar Airways' 9.57% stake at HK$10.8374/share, or an outlay of HK$6.96bn (~US$890mn).
This development required SFC approval (granting a MGO waiver), as Swire Pacific (19 HK)'s stake in Cathay increased to 47.69% (from 43.12%); and Air China’s stake to 31.78% (from 28.74%).
Curiously, Air China has now entered into a share placing agreement, the result of which would see its stake settle at 29.98% after the Qatar Airways buyback.


Cathay (293 HK): Air China Sells Down Ahead Of Qatar Airway's Buyback

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a> has announced plans to acquire Qatar Airways' 9.57% stake at HK$10.8374/share, or an outlay of HK$6.96bn (~US$890mn).</li>
<li>Qatar Airways acquired this stake in November 2017 at HK$13.65/share. </li>
<li>Upon approval from the SFC (mainly granting a MGO waiver), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (19 HK)</a>'s stake in Cathay increases to 47.69% (from 43.12%); and Air China’s stake to 31.78% (from 28.74%).</li>
</ul>



Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) has announced plans to acquire Qatar Airways' 9.57% stake at HK$10.8374/share, or an outlay of HK$6.96bn (~US$890mn).
Qatar Airways acquired this stake in November 2017 at HK$13.65/share. 
Upon approval from the SFC (mainly granting a MGO waiver), Swire Pacific (19 HK)'s stake in Cathay increases to 47.69% (from 43.12%); and Air China’s stake to 31.78% (from 28.74%).


Cathay (293 HK) Takes Out Qatar Airway's Stake

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

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Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>In Custody Battles, Parental Child Abductions Test China’s Justice System On Children’s Day, 39-year-old Shi Ke wandered through People’s Park in Nanchang, Jiangxi province, hoping to see her 3-year-old son, Xiaoqing.</li><li>She wanted a few unguarded moments to talk and play with him.</li><li>She had brought him a Thomas the Tank Engine toy.</li></ul>

In Custody Battles, Parental Child Abductions Test China’s Justice System On Children’s Day, 39-year-old Shi Ke wandered through People’s Park in Nanchang, Jiangxi province, hoping to see her 3-year-old son, Xiaoqing.She wanted a few unguarded moments to talk and play with him.She had brought him a Thomas the Tank Engine toy.

CX Daily: In Custody Battles, Parental Child Abductions Test China’s Justice System 

Hong Kong

Cathay Pacific is a premium travel lifestyle brand offering scheduled passenger and cargo air transportation, along with low-cost travel and various lifestyle products and services. The airline connects Hong Kong, mainland China, and the world through its hub at Hong Kong International Airport. It was founded in Hong Kong in 1946.

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Cathay Pacific (293 HK)

StubWorld: Cathay Air Outperforming Air China; And WH Group Outperforming Smithfield

It's a weak parent/sub relationship; however I'd be reversing Cathay vs. Air China here. I'd also look to reverse the WH Group stub. Shorts are...

David Blennerhassett