Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (19 HK)</a></strong> has bought back B/A shares in ratios of 63/37 and 72/28 over two days.  Listing Rules suggest the ratio has to be higher than 76.71/23.29. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Swire are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. </li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Swire Pacific (19 HK) has bought back B/A shares in ratios of 63/37 and 72/28 over two days.  Listing Rules suggest the ratio has to be higher than 76.71/23.29. 
Preceding my comments on Swire are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. 
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Swire's NAV Discount Further Narrows As Buyback Kicks Off

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The theme we have seen over the past four weeks is an increasing number of indexes reversing 4-10-month downtrends and/or breaking above important resistance levels, with no failed breakouts.</li>
<li>We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but the real test will come during the eventual pullback, which we believe we are now experiencing.</li>
<li>We are watching to see whether these breakout levels and important moving averages (e.g., 50-day MAs) will hold.</li>
</ul>


The theme we have seen over the past four weeks is an increasing number of indexes reversing 4-10-month downtrends and/or breaking above important resistance levels, with no failed breakouts.
We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but the real test will come during the eventual pullback, which we believe we are now experiencing.
We are watching to see whether these breakout levels and important moving averages (e.g., 50-day MAs) will hold.


Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Alliance Aviation Services / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The ACCC has raised concerns about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qantas-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:677:1" rel="noopener">Qantas Airways (QAN AU)</a> proposed acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-aviation-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20401:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)</a>. The ACCC’s final decision is on 17 November.</li>
<li>Qantas knew a lengthy ACCC approval process was highly likely and committed to an additional special dividend in the SID to reflect this risk. </li>
<li>Qantas has its work cut out to address the ACCC concerns. Nevertheless, due to the selloff, the current price offers almost a free option on Qantas securing ACCC approval.</li>
</ul>


The ACCC has raised concerns about Qantas Airways (QAN AU) proposed acquisition of Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU). The ACCC’s final decision is on 17 November.
Qantas knew a lengthy ACCC approval process was highly likely and committed to an additional special dividend in the SID to reflect this risk. 
Qantas has its work cut out to address the ACCC concerns. Nevertheless, due to the selloff, the current price offers almost a free option on Qantas securing ACCC approval.


Alliance Aviation – Selloff Provides Optionality on ACCC Approval

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (19 HK)</a></strong> has <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/0811/2022081100273.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a "small" buyback at HK$4bn, but it is a material portion of ADV.  </li>
<li>What remains unknown is how the buyback will be split.  The split will only be known once buyback volumes are announced. </li>
<li>Swire is trading cheap at a look-through forward P/B of 0.28x compared to its five-year average of 0.38x, and the two-year average pre-Covid of 0.48x. </li>
</ul>



Swire Pacific (19 HK) has announced a "small" buyback at HK$4bn, but it is a material portion of ADV.  
What remains unknown is how the buyback will be split.  The split will only be known once buyback volumes are announced. 
Swire is trading cheap at a look-through forward P/B of 0.28x compared to its five-year average of 0.38x, and the two-year average pre-Covid of 0.48x. 


Swire A/​​B (19 HK /​​ 87 HK)'s BIG Buyback Programme

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23726:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific Ltd-Cl B (87 HK)</a> has announced a HK$4bn buyback. While that is 6.5% of shares out, it is over 15% of real float.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> was trading at a 50% discount to NAV and near the widest level over the last few years.</li>
<li>There will be passive selling once the buyback is complete, but the stocks should run up prior to that.</li>
</ul>



Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)/Swire Pacific Ltd-Cl B (87 HK) has announced a HK$4bn buyback. While that is 6.5% of shares out, it is over 15% of real float.

Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) was trading at a 50% discount to NAV and near the widest level over the last few years.
There will be passive selling once the buyback is complete, but the stocks should run up prior to that.


Swire Pacific (19 HK/87 HK) Buyback: Bigger Than It Appears

Hong Kong

Cathay Pacific Airways Limited operates scheduled airline services. The Company also provides related services, including airline catering, aircraft handling, and engineering.

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Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)

StubWorld: Swire's NAV Discount Further Narrows As Buyback Kicks Off

Swire Pacific has bought back B/A shares in ratios of 63/37 and 72/28 over two days. Listing Rules say it has to be higher than 76.71/23.29. Stay...

David Blennerhassett

Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

Japan is the latest major country to break out, and we are buyers. Japan continues to be considerably further along in the bottoming process...

Vermilion Research

Alliance Aviation – Selloff Provides Optionality on ACCC Approval

Qantas has its work cut out to address the ACCC concerns. Nevertheless, due to the selloff, the current price offers almost a free option on Qantas...

Arun George

Swire A/B (19 HK / 87 HK)'s BIG Buyback Programme

I continue to tilt bullish on Swire Pac. ~45% discount is unreasonably wide given its tendency to historically trade in the low-to-mid twenties....

David Blennerhassett

Swire Pacific (19 HK/87 HK) Buyback: Bigger Than It Appears

Swire Pacific has announced a HK$4bn buyback - that is over 15% of the real float on the stock. Both 19 HK and 87 HK are up today, but there could...

Brian Freitas

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StubWorld: Swire's NAV Discount Further Narrows As Buyback Kicks Off

Swire Pacific has bought back B/A shares in ratios of 63/37 and 72/28 over two days. Listing Rules say it has to be higher than 76.71/23.29. Stay...

David Blennerhassett

Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

Japan is the latest major country to break out, and we are buyers. Japan continues to be considerably further along in the bottoming process...

Vermilion Research

Alliance Aviation – Selloff Provides Optionality on ACCC Approval

Qantas has its work cut out to address the ACCC concerns. Nevertheless, due to the selloff, the current price offers almost a free option on Qantas...

Arun George

Swire A/​​B (19 HK /​​ 87 HK)'s BIG Buyback Programme

I continue to tilt bullish on Swire Pac. ~45% discount is unreasonably wide given its tendency to historically trade in the low-to-mid twenties....

David Blennerhassett

Swire Pacific (19 HK/87 HK) Buyback: Bigger Than It Appears

Swire Pacific has announced a HK$4bn buyback - that is over 15% of the real float on the stock. Both 19 HK and 87 HK are up today, but there could...

Brian Freitas

Swire A/B (19 HK / 87 HK)'s BIG Buyback Programme