Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>You'd only want to be long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a> if you're very bullish <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellebrite-di-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37102:1" rel="noopener">Cellebrite (CLBT US)</a>and some of the other businesses inside Sun Corp which aren't making money.</li>
<li>It's never ideal shorting rocket ships on the way up. Best to short on the way down. At some juncture, there will be a magnificent correction in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia (285A JP)</a>.</li>
<li>On balance, the optics in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a> are looking attractive. </li>
</ul>


You'd only want to be long Sun Corp (6736 JP) if you're very bullish Cellebrite (CLBT US)and some of the other businesses inside Sun Corp which aren't making money.
It's never ideal shorting rocket ships on the way up. Best to short on the way down. At some juncture, there will be a magnificent correction in Kioxia (285A JP).
On balance, the optics in CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK) are looking attractive. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Kioxia, CK Hutchison, Toshiba/ROHM

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Today after the close, Value Act reported that it owned 7.87% of shares outstanding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a> and it may make proposals to management. </li>
<li>This has been trading cheaply (and I pointed it out on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sun-corp-6736-clbt-has-round-tripped-but-now-better-parentco-and-a-buyback-so-set-up-is-better" target="_blank" rel="noopener">13 Aug</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sun-corp-6736-clbt-has-round-tripped-but-now-better-parentco-and-a-buyback-so-set-up-is-better" target="_blank" rel="noopener">12 Sep</a>). Cellebrite DI (CLBT US) is up 35% in those 8 weeks. Sun Corp +50%.</li>
<li>ValueAct had owned 4.9+% for at least a few months before, but now it has gone public. They were likely in already under a different name in March, now public.</li>
</ul>


Today after the close, Value Act reported that it owned 7.87% of shares outstanding in Sun Corp (6736 JP) and it may make proposals to management. 
This has been trading cheaply (and I pointed it out on 13 Aug and 12 Sep). Cellebrite DI (CLBT US) is up 35% in those 8 weeks. Sun Corp +50%.
ValueAct had owned 4.9+% for at least a few months before, but now it has gone public. They were likely in already under a different name in March, now public.


[Japan Activism] Sun Corp (6736) Gets ANOTHER Public Activist - ValueAct Reports 7.9%

<ul>
<li>12 months on from the Tender Offer which changed the shape of the shareholder register, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a> is up small and its main asset Cellebrite is -10%.</li>
<li>The value of the rest of Sun Corp has probably increased to cover that 10% through new business earnings, but the main value is still Cellebrite. An exit still awaited.</li>
<li>Now Cellebrite is lower, and SunCorp is lower (but recently rising) and SunCorp has announced a buyback which accounts for a big chunk of Real World Float. Hmmm...</li>
</ul>


12 months on from the Tender Offer which changed the shape of the shareholder register, Sun Corp (6736 JP) is up small and its main asset Cellebrite is -10%.
The value of the rest of Sun Corp has probably increased to cover that 10% through new business earnings, but the main value is still Cellebrite. An exit still awaited.
Now Cellebrite is lower, and SunCorp is lower (but recently rising) and SunCorp has announced a buyback which accounts for a big chunk of Real World Float. Hmmm...


Sun Corp (6736) - CLBT Has Round-Tripped, But Now Better ParentCo and a Buyback so Set-Up Is Better

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a> is a clear value play. But it's not as cheap to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellebrite-di-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37102:1" rel="noopener">Cellebrite (CLBT US)</a> as it was  last month. The trade is a net long position</li>
<li>As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> plumbs new 12-month lows for its NAV discount and implied stub, Swire's B shares have significantly outperformed the As over the past month.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-hi-speed-holdings-gro" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10356:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK)</a> is a bubble. High shareholder concentration is still likely present, and the stock is getting squeezed. SHP is a short. Once it starts to turn.</li>
</ul>



Sun Corp (6736 JP) is a clear value play. But it's not as cheap to Cellebrite (CLBT US) as it was  last month. The trade is a net long position
As Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) plumbs new 12-month lows for its NAV discount and implied stub, Swire's B shares have significantly outperformed the As over the past month.

Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK) is a bubble. High shareholder concentration is still likely present, and the stock is getting squeezed. SHP is a short. Once it starts to turn.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Swire, Shandong Hi-Speed, PRC Rural Bank Delistings

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a> is a clear value play. But not as cheap to 44.3%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellebrite-di-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37102:1" rel="noopener">Cellebrite DI (CLBT US)</a> as it was recently. Opt for a net long trade here.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Sun Corp - and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jg-summit-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15747:1" rel="noopener">JG Summit Holdings (JGS PM)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/universal-robina-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3709:1" rel="noopener">Universal Robina (URC PM)</a> -  are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Sun Corp (6736 JP) is a clear value play. But not as cheap to 44.3%-held Cellebrite DI (CLBT US) as it was recently. Opt for a net long trade here.
Preceding my comments on Sun Corp - and JG Summit Holdings (JGS PM) / Universal Robina (URC PM) -  are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


Japan

Cellebrite DI Ltd provides software solutions. The Company offers digital intelligence platform for legally sanctioned investigations that allows users to collect, review, analyze, and manage digital data across the investigative lifecycle. Cellebrite DI serves customers worldwide.

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Cellebrite DI (CLBT US)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Kioxia, CK Hutchison, Toshiba/ROHM

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

[Japan Activism] Sun Corp (6736) Gets ANOTHER Public Activist - ValueAct Reports 7.9%

ValueAct has now officially joined the register of SunCorp at 7.87% bringing total ownership by Oasis, TrueWind, and ValueAct to 48.40% as of a...

Travis Lundy

Sun Corp (6736) - CLBT Has Round-Tripped, But Now Better ParentCo and a Buyback so Set-Up Is Better

Since I wrote 3 weeks ago, CLBT is up 20%, Sun Corp is up 10%, the discount is wider. US domestic political stress will only increase the demand...

Travis Lundy

Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Swire, Shandong Hi-Speed, PRC Rural Bank Delistings

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Stay Long Sun Corp (6736 JP)

SunCorp is a clear value play. But not as cheap to CLBT as it was last month. Opt for a net long position, rather than long Sun short CLBT dollar...

David Blennerhassett

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