Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>At the same time, we cannot get too bearish until there is a break below $90.50 short-term support.</li>
<li>EURO STOXX 50 pulling back to 4100-4200 buy area. TOPIX holding above 2120 support. Buy ideas within Technology, Construction Materials, gold miners, Utilities, other defensives.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range.
At the same time, we cannot get too bearish until there is a break below $90.50 short-term support.
EURO STOXX 50 pulling back to 4100-4200 buy area. TOPIX holding above 2120 support. Buy ideas within Technology, Construction Materials, gold miners, Utilities, other defensives.


Japan Remains Leadership; Actionable Pullback in Europe; Downgrading China/Hong Kong

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>American Tower stated during FY 2022 results presentation that debt reduction is its main priority. The probability of a takeover bid for Cellnex by American Tower and Brookfield is reduced.</li>
<li>Cellnex on 14.7x EV/NTM EBITDAe is trading cheaply vs. AMT on 19.5x and below private equity deals at 25-30x. I believe that Cellnex's fundamentals are solid, and would be long.</li>
<li>Cellnex is the undisputed European leader in telecommunications towers with both high cash flow visibility (growth forecasted at 18% for the period 2021-2025e) and trading at 7.3% 22e FCF yield.</li>
</ul>


American Tower stated during FY 2022 results presentation that debt reduction is its main priority. The probability of a takeover bid for Cellnex by American Tower and Brookfield is reduced.
Cellnex on 14.7x EV/NTM EBITDAe is trading cheaply vs. AMT on 19.5x and below private equity deals at 25-30x. I believe that Cellnex's fundamentals are solid, and would be long.
Cellnex is the undisputed European leader in telecommunications towers with both high cash flow visibility (growth forecasted at 18% for the period 2021-2025e) and trading at 7.3% 22e FCF yield.


<ul>
<li>Press reported (20 January) that American Tower and Brookfield are preparing to launch a takeover bid for European towerco leader Cellnex with the intention of delisting the business.</li>
<li>Cellnex on 16.9x EV/22e EBITDA is trading cheaply vs AMT (21.6x) and a diversified unique asset. Its towers would come at €350,000/tower vs. recent deals at €500,000.</li>
<li>Top ten shareholders own 57.41%. The last rights issue was done at €36.33/share. At what price those shareholders could be bought out? Unlikely at less than a 25% premium, €45.5/share.</li>
</ul>


Press reported (20 January) that American Tower and Brookfield are preparing to launch a takeover bid for European towerco leader Cellnex with the intention of delisting the business.
Cellnex on 16.9x EV/22e EBITDA is trading cheaply vs AMT (21.6x) and a diversified unique asset. Its towers would come at €350,000/tower vs. recent deals at €500,000.
Top ten shareholders own 57.41%. The last rights issue was done at €36.33/share. At what price those shareholders could be bought out? Unlikely at less than a 25% premium, €45.5/share.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a>'s implied stub and the simple ratio (CKH/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-infrastructure-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:163:1" rel="noopener">CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)</a>) are currently at an all-time low.</li>
<li>The market is assigning US$1.2bn <em>less</em> for the stub ops subsequent to the announcement and completion of tower sales in Austria, Denmark, Ireland, Sweden, and Italy.</li>
<li>CKH's business diversification, both by geography and segment, continues to provide a strong and stable cashflow.</li>
</ul>



CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)'s implied stub and the simple ratio (CKH/ CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)) are currently at an all-time low.
The market is assigning US$1.2bn less for the stub ops subsequent to the announcement and completion of tower sales in Austria, Denmark, Ireland, Sweden, and Italy.
CKH's business diversification, both by geography and segment, continues to provide a strong and stable cashflow.


2022 High Conviction: CK Hutchison (1 HK) Trading At Its Widest Ever Level

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Bottom-Up

Dayamitra Telekomunikasi PT / Equity Bottom-Up

<div><div id="ember4189"><div>
<div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-dayamitra-telekomunikasi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34741:1" rel="noopener">Mitratel (1319Z IJ)</a> is the largest telco tower owner and operator in Indonesia based on the number of telecommunication towers owned as of 30 June 2021, according to Analysys Mason. Mitratel is a subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telekomunikasi-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1051:1" rel="noopener">Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ)</a>.</div>
<div></div>
<div>Mitratel has launched an IPO to raise IDR20.0-24.9 trillion ($1.4-1.8 billion) at the IPO price range of IDR775-975 per share. Bookbuilding will close on 4 November and the shares are set to list on 22 November. </div>
<div></div>
</div></div></div><div>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mitratel-dayamitra-telekomunikasi-ipo-initiation-control-tower" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:59620" rel="noopener">Mitratel (Dayamitra Telekomunikasi) IPO Initiation: Control Tower</a>, we noted that in comparison to other major regions (US, Western Europe, China and India), the tower industry in Indonesia offers an attractive mix of high EBITDA margin, low capex, no colocation discount and no obligation to provide power in the contract. The tower industry also benefits from predictable revenue due to long-term contracts and high renewal rates. Mitratel's contracted revenue based on agreements with customers for all types of leases is IDR30.7 trillion, and the average remaining life of lease agreements is 6.3 years, as of 30 June 2021. We concluded that Mitratel's fundamentals tick all the right boxes. </p>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive. Overall, we would participate in the IPO.</p></div>
</div>



Mitratel (1319Z IJ) is the largest telco tower owner and operator in Indonesia based on the number of telecommunication towers owned as of 30 June 2021, according to Analysys Mason. Mitratel is a subsidiary of Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ).

Mitratel has launched an IPO to raise IDR20.0-24.9 trillion ($1.4-1.8 billion) at the IPO price range of IDR775-975 per share. Bookbuilding will close on 4 November and the shares are set to list on 22 November. 


In Mitratel (Dayamitra Telekomunikasi) IPO Initiation: Control Tower, we noted that in comparison to other major regions (US, Western Europe, China and India), the tower industry in Indonesia offers an attractive mix of high EBITDA margin, low capex, no colocation discount and no obligation to provide power in the contract. The tower industry also benefits from predictable revenue due to long-term contracts and high renewal rates. Mitratel's contracted revenue based on agreements with customers for all types of leases is IDR30.7 trillion, and the average remaining life of lease agreements is 6.3 years, as of 30 June 2021. We concluded that Mitratel's fundamentals tick all the right boxes. 
Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive. Overall, we would participate in the IPO.


Mitratel (Dayamitra Telekomunikasi) IPO: Valuation Insights

Spain

Cellnex Telecom S.A.U. is an independent operator of wireless telecommunications infrastructure and broadcast infrastructure. The Company's sites are located in Spain and Italy.

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Cellnex Telecom Sau (CLNX SM)

Japan Remains Leadership; Actionable Pullback in Europe; Downgrading China/Hong Kong

#Japan #Nikkei 225 and #TOPIX above base supports at 30,800 and 2120, respectively. We've discussed buying pullbacks to 1950-2000 on TOPIX, but it...

Vermilion Research

AMT/Cellnex: Lower Chances of a Bid

American Tower stated during FY 2022 results presentation that debt reduction is its main priority. The probability of a takeover bid for Cellnex...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

AMT/Cellnex: Possible Combination?

Press reported (20 January) that American Tower and Brookfield are preparing to launch a takeover bid for European towerco leader Cellnex with the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

2022 High Conviction: CK Hutchison (1 HK) Trading At Its Widest Ever Level

C KH is inexpensive, versus historical levels, and when compared to peers. Net of CKI, the marker is assigning HK$9bn less for the stubs ops after...

David Blennerhassett

Mitratel (Dayamitra Telekomunikasi) IPO: Valuation Insights

Mitratel has launched an IPO to raise $1.4-1.8 billion. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive. Overall, we would...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Japan Remains Leadership; Actionable Pullback in Europe; Downgrading China/Hong Kong

#Japan #Nikkei 225 and #TOPIX above base supports at 30,800 and 2120, respectively. We've discussed buying pullbacks to 1950-2000 on TOPIX, but it...

Vermilion Research

AMT/​Cellnex: Lower Chances of a Bid

American Tower stated during FY 2022 results presentation that debt reduction is its main priority. The probability of a takeover bid for Cellnex...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

AMT/Cellnex: Possible Combination?

Press reported (20 January) that American Tower and Brookfield are preparing to launch a takeover bid for European towerco leader Cellnex with the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

2022 High Conviction: CK Hutchison (1 HK) Trading At Its Widest Ever Level

C KH is inexpensive, versus historical levels, and when compared to peers. Net of CKI, the marker is assigning HK$9bn less for the stubs ops after...

David Blennerhassett

Mitratel (Dayamitra Telekomunikasi) IPO: Valuation Insights

Mitratel has launched an IPO to raise $1.4-1.8 billion. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive. Overall, we would...

Arun George

AMT/Cellnex: Lower Chances of a Bid