Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Yashili International Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Infant formula play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)</a> is currently suspended "pursuant to The Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers".</li>
<li>Shares closed up 98% yesterday, on clear news leakage, before shares were suspended. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a> holds 51.04% with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/danone-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21403:1" rel="noopener">Danone SA (BN FP)</a> another 25%.  </li>
<li>This trading halt follows the recent successful Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnutria-dairy-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13799:1" rel="noopener">Ausnutria Dairy Corp (1717 HK)</a>, one of Yashili's key peers.</li>
</ul>


Infant formula play Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK) is currently suspended "pursuant to The Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers".
Shares closed up 98% yesterday, on clear news leakage, before shares were suspended. China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK) holds 51.04% with Danone SA (BN FP) another 25%.  
This trading halt follows the recent successful Offer for Ausnutria Dairy Corp (1717 HK), one of Yashili's key peers.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnutria-dairy-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13799:1" rel="noopener">Ausnutria Dairy Corp (1717 HK)</a>'s Composite Document has now been despatched. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inner-mongolia-yili-indus-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3220:1" rel="noopener">Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial (600887 CH)</a>'s Offer is open for acceptances with a first close on the 3 March.</li>
<li>The Offer is conditional on 50% acceptances, with Yili holding 34.33%. </li>
<li>This transaction should get up. The IFA considers the Offer is fair and reasonable. </li>
</ul>



Ausnutria Dairy Corp (1717 HK)'s Composite Document has now been despatched. Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial (600887 CH)'s Offer is open for acceptances with a first close on the 3 March.
The Offer is conditional on 50% acceptances, with Yili holding 34.33%. 
This transaction should get up. The IFA considers the Offer is fair and reasonable. 


Ausnutria (1717 HK): Composite Doc Out. Offer Now Open

<ul>
<li>530.8mn shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnutria-dairy-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13799:1" rel="noopener">Ausnutria (1717 HK)</a> crossed at the close yesterday at HK$10.06/share. That is the exact number of shares under the SPAs and the stated price under the agreements.</li>
<li>China's NDRC approval,  a condition to the SPAs, was obtained earlier this month, leaving MoC and SAFE approvals outstanding. They appear to have been received. </li>
<li>Expect confirmation shortly. The completion of the SPAs triggers an MGO, which is conditional on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inner-mongolia-yili-indus-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3220:1" rel="noopener">Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (600887 CH)</a> holding 50% of the voting rights.  </li>
</ul>


530.8mn shares of Ausnutria (1717 HK) crossed at the close yesterday at HK$10.06/share. That is the exact number of shares under the SPAs and the stated price under the agreements.
China's NDRC approval,  a condition to the SPAs, was obtained earlier this month, leaving MoC and SAFE approvals outstanding. They appear to have been received. 
Expect confirmation shortly. The completion of the SPAs triggers an MGO, which is conditional on Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (600887 CH) holding 50% of the voting rights.  


Ausnutria (1717 HK): SPAs Done (Just Not Officially)

<ul>
<li>China's NDRC approval, a key condition to the Share Purchase Agreement, has been obtained.  SAMR clearance had previously been fulfilled, leaving MoC and SAFE approvals yet to be secured.</li>
<li>The turnout at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnutria-dairy-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13799:1" rel="noopener">Ausnutria Dairy Corp (1717 HK)</a>'s recent EGM would suggest there is a sufficient number of shares for the MGO to turn unconditional. </li>
<li>Provided the Offer becomes unconditional, trading at a gross/annualised spread of 4.4%/22.1%, assuming late 1Q22 completion.</li>
</ul>


China's NDRC approval, a key condition to the Share Purchase Agreement, has been obtained.  SAMR clearance had previously been fulfilled, leaving MoC and SAFE approvals yet to be secured.
The turnout at Ausnutria Dairy Corp (1717 HK)'s recent EGM would suggest there is a sufficient number of shares for the MGO to turn unconditional. 
Provided the Offer becomes unconditional, trading at a gross/annualised spread of 4.4%/22.1%, assuming late 1Q22 completion.


Ausnutria (1717 HK): MGO Imminent As NDRC Approval Obtained

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnutria-dairy-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13799:1" rel="noopener">Ausnutria Dairy Corp (1717 HK)</a> is trading at HK$8.78/share, compared to the undisturbed price of $8.85/share.</li>
<li>The Composite Doc's dispatch has been pushed out to 4 March 2022, or within 7 days of completion of the pre-conditions. Timing is the main risk for the pre-cons.</li>
<li>Given the light premium, this MGO turning unconditional is not a sure thing. Yet at the current level, and mindful of at least a back-end re-rate, this looks attractive here.</li>
</ul>



Ausnutria Dairy Corp (1717 HK) is trading at HK$8.78/share, compared to the undisturbed price of $8.85/share.
The Composite Doc's dispatch has been pushed out to 4 March 2022, or within 7 days of completion of the pre-conditions. Timing is the main risk for the pre-cons.
Given the light premium, this MGO turning unconditional is not a sure thing. Yet at the current level, and mindful of at least a back-end re-rate, this looks attractive here.


Ausnutria (1717 HK): Below Undisturbed Levels

Taiwan

Center Laboratories Inc. manufactures and markets oral liquid formulations and children's formulations.  The Company is focusing on the development of respiratory care and pain relief products.

Center Laboratories (4123 TT)

Yashili (1230 HK): More Formula Fortune?

There is, as yet, no definitive Offer. However, the suspension announcement and the large share price movement suggest an Offer is imminent. Or at...

David Blennerhassett

Ausnutria (1717 HK): Composite Doc Out. Offer Now Open

At HK$9.91/share, Ausnutria is currently trading at a gross/annualised spread of 1.5%/18%, assuming mid-March payment. That's okay. With Yili now...

David Blennerhassett

Ausnutria (1717 HK): SPAs Done (Just Not Officially)

That spread is okay. You still need the MGO turns unconditional. In any event, I would expect a back-end re-rate following the completion of the...

David Blennerhassett

Ausnutria (1717 HK): MGO Imminent As NDRC Approval Obtained

At HK$9.64/share, Ausnutria is currently trading at a gross/annualised spread of 4.4%/22.1%, assuming late 1Q22 completion. That still looks...

David Blennerhassett

Ausnutria (1717 HK): Below Undisturbed Levels

Failing the MGO turning unconditional, expect a re-rating of Ausnutria following the completion of the SPAs and share subscription.

David Blennerhassett