Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

CCRE’s results were poor, albeit in line with expectations as the company had issued a profit warning in August. The company was significantly impacted by several headwinds specific to Henan (e.g. the floods in H2/21 and COVID-19 lockdowns in H1/22), as well as the nationwide deterioration in homebuyer and investor sentiment. As a result, net debt and leverage worsened by more than expected. Going forward, we believe that CCRE’s debt repayment prospects remain highly uncertain, given the company's depleted liquidity and poor operating cash flows (due to the weak sales and very low margins). In addition, we believe the planned convertible bond issuance would help to enhance the company’s liquidity, but is insufficient to cover the large funding gap in FY 2023. Positively, Chairman Wu Po Sum has displayed a strong willingness to honour the company’s commitments. We highlight that the development of synergies with Henan Railway to achieve new business and financing opportunities may be critical for CCRE to continue staving off default.

  CCRE’s results were poor, albeit in line with expectations as the company had issued a profit warning in August. The company was significantly impacted by several headwinds specific to Henan (e.g. the floods in H2/21 and COVID-19 lockdowns in H1/22), as well as the nationwide deterioration in homebuyer and investor sentiment. As a result, net debt and leverage worsened by more than expected.   Going forward, we believe that CCRE’s debt repayment prospects remain highly uncertain, given the company's depleted liquidity and poor operating cash flows (due to the weak sales and very low margins). In addition, we believe the planned convertible bond issuance would help to enhance the company’s liquidity, but is insufficient to cover the large funding gap in FY 2023. Positively, Chairman Wu Po Sum has displayed a strong willingness to honour the company’s commitments. We highlight that the development of synergies with Henan Railway to achieve new business and financing opportunities may be critical for CCRE to continue staving off default. 

Central China - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2022 Results - Lucror Analytics

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.

  The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days. 

Chinese Property Weekly - 26 August 2022 - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/china-oil-and-gas-group-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>China Oil And Gas</a></li><li><a href='/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Geely Auto</a></li><li><a href='/entities/shimao-property-holdings-limited' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Shimao Property Holdings</a></li><li><a href='/entities/kwg-group-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Kwg Property Holding</a></li><li><a href='/entities/seazen' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Seazen (Formerly Future Land)</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:China Oil And GasGeely AutoShimao Property HoldingsKwg Property HoldingSeazen (Formerly Future Land)and more...

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Chinese food delivery giant <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> shed 9% after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> reportedly planned to divest its $24bn stake. But it may just be a misunderstanding. Maybe.</li>
<li>Given <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a>'s strong underlying operating performance, the 40% discount to NAV - one in which there are discounts of discounts - JMH appears attractive here. </li>
<li>Expect a firm Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nearmap-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5142:1" rel="noopener">Nearmap Ltd (NEA AU)</a> shortly. Thoma Bravo's due diligence is already at an advanced stage. And why Nearmap entered into the break fee. </li>
</ul>


Chinese food delivery giant Meituan (3690 HK) shed 9% after Tencent (700 HK) reportedly planned to divest its $24bn stake. But it may just be a misunderstanding. Maybe.
Given Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)'s strong underlying operating performance, the 40% discount to NAV - one in which there are discounts of discounts - JMH appears attractive here. 
Expect a firm Offer for Nearmap Ltd (NEA AU) shortly. Thoma Bravo's due diligence is already at an advanced stage. And why Nearmap entered into the break fee. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Tencent/Meituan, Jardine Matheson, Giordano, Nearmap, Fraser Hospitality

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 24 adds and 14 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 518.</li>
<li>19 of the 24 HSCI inclusions will be added to Southbound Stock Connect, while 12 of the 14 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>Five of the HSCI constituents could be removed from Southbound Stock Connect only since the average market cap over the last year is less than HK$5bn.</li>
</ul>


There are 24 adds and 14 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 518.
19 of the 24 HSCI inclusions will be added to Southbound Stock Connect, while 12 of the 14 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.
Five of the HSCI constituents could be removed from Southbound Stock Connect only since the average market cap over the last year is less than HK$5bn.


HSCI Index Rebalance: 24 Adds, 14 Deletes & Changes to Stock Connect

China

Central China Real Estate is primarily engaged in property development for sales and rental, property leasing, and hotel operations. The company also develops cultural tourism projects, light-asset model projects, and green houses, and provides project management services. It was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Zhengzhou, People's Republic of China.

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Central China Real Estate (832 HK)

Central China - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2022 Results - Lucror Analytics

CCRE’s results were poor, albeit in line with expectations as the company had issued a profit warning in August. The company was significantly...

Lucror Analytics

Chinese Property Weekly - 26 August 2022 - Lucror Analytics

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments,...

Lucror Analytics

Weekly Wrap - 26 Aug 2022

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

Last Week in Event SPACE: Tencent/Meituan, Jardine Matheson, Giordano, Nearmap, Fraser Hospitality

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

HSCI Index Rebalance: 24 Adds, 14 Deletes & Changes to Stock Connect

There are 24 adds and 14 deletes for the HSCI at the September rebalance. 19 stocks will be added to Stock Connect and 12 will be removed. Some of...

Brian Freitas

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