Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

<div><p>S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the September index review on 3 September and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.</p></div><div>We are almost three quarters of the way through the review period. There are 3 potential inclusions at the review - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centuria-capital-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15546:1" rel="noopener">Centuria Capital (CNI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinnacle-investment-manageme" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20624:1" rel="noopener">Wilson (PNI AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sealink-travel-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6400:1" rel="noopener">Sealink Travel (SLK AU)</a> while the potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuix-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31040:1" rel="noopener">Nuix Limited (NXL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nrw-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9271:1" rel="noopener">NRW Holdings (NWH AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g8-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:581:1" rel="noopener">G8 Education (GEM AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13914:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Resources (GXY AU)</a> is placed in the inclusion zone but is unlikely to be added to the index given its pending merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orocobre-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> is a close add and the corresponding deletion is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westgold-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24269:1" rel="noopener">Westgold Resources (WGX AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>There is a large impact expected on the inclusions while the impact on the deletions is lower.</div><div></div><div>For <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g8-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:581:1" rel="noopener">G8 Education (GEM AU)</a>, the short interest is close to the estimated passive selling. For the other two deletes, short interest is a lot smaller than the estimated passive selling and there will be more shorts created from now to rebalance implementation day.</div>

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the September index review on 3 September and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.We are almost three quarters of the way through the review period. There are 3 potential inclusions at the review - Centuria Capital (CNI AU), Wilson (PNI AU) and Sealink Travel (SLK AU) while the potential deletions are Nuix Limited (NXL AU), NRW Holdings (NWH AU) and G8 Education (GEM AU).
Galaxy Resources (GXY AU) is placed in the inclusion zone but is unlikely to be added to the index given its pending merger with Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU).
De Grey Mining (DEG AU) is a close add and the corresponding deletion is Westgold Resources (WGX AU).There is a large impact expected on the inclusions while the impact on the deletions is lower.For G8 Education (GEM AU), the short interest is close to the estimated passive selling. For the other two deletes, short interest is a lot smaller than the estimated passive selling and there will be more shorts created from now to rebalance implementation day.

ASX200 Sep21 Index Rebalance Preview: Large Impact Names

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<p>On 19th April 2021, ASX-listed real estate funds managers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/primewest-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29103:1" rel="noopener">Primewest Group Ltd (PWG AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centuria-capital-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15546:1" rel="noopener">Centuria Capital (CNI AU)</a> announced plans to merge in a A$600mn cash-and-scrip deal. This transaction was structured as an <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02364563-6A1028800?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Off-market Takeover bid</a> by CNI for 100% of PWG Securities where PWG securityholders will get A$0.20 in cash and 0.473 CNI Securities per PWG security. I covered this situation in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/primewest-pwg-au-centuria-s-off-market-takeover-bid-could-trigger-asx-s-p-200-index-inclusion" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50533" rel="noopener">Primewest (PWG AU): Centuria's Off-Market Takeover Bid Could Trigger ASX/S&amp;P 200 Index Inclusion</a> </p><p>Today, CNI <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02381509-6A1035575?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> they have extended the Offer Period by changing the Closing Date from 17th June 2021 to 24th June 2021. Below is a discussion on the latest updates to this situation. </p><hr><div><div><div class="content-remarks"><p>For more information about M&amp;A rules, regulations, and practices in Australia, please refer to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-australia-m-a-guide-2019" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30118" rel="noopener">Quiddity Australia M&amp;A Guide 2019</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-m-a-australia-foreign-investment-reforms" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40210" rel="noopener">Quiddity M&amp;A: Australia Foreign Investment Reforms</a> </p></div></div></div>

On 19th April 2021, ASX-listed real estate funds managers Primewest Group Ltd (PWG AU) and Centuria Capital (CNI AU) announced plans to merge in a A$600mn cash-and-scrip deal. This transaction was structured as an Off-market Takeover bid by CNI for 100% of PWG Securities where PWG securityholders will get A$0.20 in cash and 0.473 CNI Securities per PWG security. I covered this situation in Primewest (PWG AU): Centuria's Off-Market Takeover Bid Could Trigger ASX/S&amp;P 200 Index Inclusion Today, CNI announced they have extended the Offer Period by changing the Closing Date from 17th June 2021 to 24th June 2021. Below is a discussion on the latest updates to this situation. For more information about M&amp;A rules, regulations, and practices in Australia, please refer to Quiddity Australia M&amp;A Guide 2019 and Quiddity M&amp;A: Australia Foreign Investment Reforms 

Primewest (PWG AU): Centuria Offer Period Extended; Trading Wide

<p>On 19th April 2021, ASX-listed real estate funds managers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/primewest-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29103:1" rel="noopener">Primewest Group Ltd (PWG AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centuria-capital-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15546:1" rel="noopener">Centuria Capital (CNI AU)</a> announced plans to merge in a A$600mn cash-and-scrip Deal. This transaction will be structured as an <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02364563-6A1028800?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Off-market Takeover bid</a> by CNI for 100% of PWG Securities where PWG securityholders will get A$0.20 in cash and 0.473 CNI Securities per PWG security. </p><p>The transaction is conditional on a minimum acceptance condition. The Offer Period is expected to open in mid-May and close in mid-June 2021. </p><p>CNI last closed at A$2.77 translating to a Offer consideration of A$1.51 which is the same as PWG's price.</p><p><em>More below the fold. </em></p><hr><div><div><div class="content-remarks"><p>For more information about M&amp;A rules, regulations, and practices in Australia, please refer to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-australia-m-a-guide-2019" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30118" rel="noopener">Quiddity Australia M&amp;A Guide 2019</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-m-a-australia-foreign-investment-reforms" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40210" rel="noopener">Quiddity M&amp;A: Australia Foreign Investment Reforms</a> </p></div></div></div>

On 19th April 2021, ASX-listed real estate funds managers Primewest Group Ltd (PWG AU) and Centuria Capital (CNI AU) announced plans to merge in a A$600mn cash-and-scrip Deal. This transaction will be structured as an Off-market Takeover bid by CNI for 100% of PWG Securities where PWG securityholders will get A$0.20 in cash and 0.473 CNI Securities per PWG security. The transaction is conditional on a minimum acceptance condition. The Offer Period is expected to open in mid-May and close in mid-June 2021. CNI last closed at A$2.77 translating to a Offer consideration of A$1.51 which is the same as PWG's price.More below the fold. For more information about M&amp;A rules, regulations, and practices in Australia, please refer to Quiddity Australia M&amp;A Guide 2019 and Quiddity M&amp;A: Australia Foreign Investment Reforms 

Primewest (PWG AU): Centuria's Off-Market Takeover Bid Could Trigger ASX/S&P 200 Index Inclusion

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>CNI intend to lift the cash portion of the offer by 2cps to 22cps. No change to the script ratio of 0.392 CNI shares per AUG share.</p>
<p>CNI has acceptances of 42.8% thus far, a further 20.9% of shareholders have agreed to accept the offer if the cash portion increases to 22cps, combined this equates to 63.9%. CNI intends to make the offer unconditional if acceptances are &gt;63.5%.</p>
<p>Updated live offer price:</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0?ui=2&amp;ik=f57c39853c&amp;attid=0.1&amp;permmsgid=msg-f:1670963188835907212&amp;th=1730742ac751768c&amp;view=fimg&amp;sz=s0-l75-ft&amp;attbid=ANGjdJ-tCdFIM2CkStHEQc3r7v-A0BC7x6pNmhnorUPyuxtGwVXOKrdNpCqqHSRmsarw2-WeBhaKH9F1K-Vn_SJ3HNrL8weeeSCMOUig9KV9TYR4vKVOQ9A1hBuM9KM&amp;disp=emb" width="289" height="201" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-image-whitelisted=""></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0?ui=2&amp;ik=f57c39853c&amp;attid=0.2&amp;permmsgid=msg-f:1670963188835907212&amp;th=1730742ac751768c&amp;view=fimg&amp;sz=s0-l75-ft&amp;attbid=ANGjdJ-mw_0XOSEc-Lud20BreFhqYc9XznvdZQNDGeXGojV94lpx6MlBUjYo6F4k29OAgdRImXh7psvBlMnuiL58z6QR11wUdEZkoIGvprWaKSZxkfZksgbmP6tq6wE&amp;disp=emb" class="editor-image img-responsive"></figure>
<p><strong>Rohan Koreman-Smit&nbsp;</strong><br>Senior Analyst, Equities<br>Forsyth Barr Limited</p>
<p>P: +64 9 368 0085 | TF: 0800 367 227&nbsp;<br>Level 23, Lumley Centre, 88 Shortland Street, Auckland</p>

CNI intend to lift the cash portion of the offer by 2cps to 22cps. No change to the script ratio of 0.392 CNI shares per AUG share.
CNI has acceptances of 42.8% thus far, a further 20.9% of shareholders have agreed to accept the offer if the cash portion increases to 22cps, combined this equates to 63.9%. CNI intends to make the offer unconditional if acceptances are &gt;63.5%.
Updated live offer price:


Rohan Koreman-Smit&nbsp; Senior Analyst, Equities Forsyth Barr Limited
P: +64 9 368 0085 | TF: 0800 367 227&nbsp; Level 23, Lumley Centre, 88 Shortland Street, Auckland

AUG - CNI Lift Cash Portion of Takeover Offer

<p>Earlier today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/augusta-capital-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9901:1" rel="noopener">Augusta Capital (AUG NZ)</a> announced that it had received a takeover notice for a full takeover from Centuria Capital Group to acquire shares that would take Centuria's holding to 100% at an implied offer price of NZ$1 per share comprising NZ$0.2 in cash and 0.392 shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centuria-capital-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15546:1" rel="noopener">Centuria Capital (CNI AU)</a>.</p><p>If Centuria proceeds to make a takeover offer, it needs to do so within a period that begins 14 days and ends 30 days after today. If 90% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/augusta-capital-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9901:1" rel="noopener">Augusta Capital (AUG NZ)</a> shareholders decide to accept the offer, Centuria may exercise its right under the Takeover Code to acquire all remaining shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/augusta-capital-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9901:1" rel="noopener">Augusta Capital (AUG NZ)</a>. </p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centuria-capital-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15546:1" rel="noopener">Centuria Capital (CNI AU)</a> had earlier offered NZ$2 per share in January but terminated the Bid Implementation Agreement in March at the depths of the market plunge brought on by Covid-19.</p><p>Since then <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/augusta-capital-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9901:1" rel="noopener">Augusta Capital (AUG NZ)</a> completed a NZ$45m equity raise in which <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centuria-capital-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15546:1" rel="noopener">Centuria Capital (CNI AU)</a> and Centuria Funds Management participated. Centuria NZ now holds 23.27% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/augusta-capital-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9901:1" rel="noopener">Augusta Capital (AUG NZ)</a> and we feel the takeover will be successful this time around, especially with the Covid impact on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/augusta-capital-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9901:1" rel="noopener">Augusta Capital (AUG NZ)</a> and the impact of the lockdown in NZ on the tourism industry.</p>

Earlier today, Augusta Capital (AUG NZ) announced that it had received a takeover notice for a full takeover from Centuria Capital Group to acquire shares that would take Centuria's holding to 100% at an implied offer price of NZ$1 per share comprising NZ$0.2 in cash and 0.392 shares of Centuria Capital (CNI AU).If Centuria proceeds to make a takeover offer, it needs to do so within a period that begins 14 days and ends 30 days after today. If 90% of Augusta Capital (AUG NZ) shareholders decide to accept the offer, Centuria may exercise its right under the Takeover Code to acquire all remaining shares in Augusta Capital (AUG NZ). Centuria Capital (CNI AU) had earlier offered NZ$2 per share in January but terminated the Bid Implementation Agreement in March at the depths of the market plunge brought on by Covid-19.Since then Augusta Capital (AUG NZ) completed a NZ$45m equity raise in which Centuria Capital (CNI AU) and Centuria Funds Management participated. Centuria NZ now holds 23.27% of Augusta Capital (AUG NZ) and we feel the takeover will be successful this time around, especially with the Covid impact on Augusta Capital (AUG NZ) and the impact of the lockdown in NZ on the tourism industry.

Centuria Capital Takeover of Augusta Capital - Take Two

Australia

Centuria Capital Group manages a diversified portfolio of investment funds and offers financial  services.  The Company manages funds of unlisted property investments; and offers investment  bonds, education plans, insurance and home loans.

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Centuria Capital (CNI AU)

ASX200 Sep21 Index Rebalance Preview: Large Impact Names

We see 3 potential changes to the ASX200 at the Sep rebalance with CNI, PNI and SLK being included and NXL, NRW and GEM being deleted. Passive...

Brian Freitas

Primewest (PWG AU): Centuria Offer Period Extended; Trading Wide

ASX-listed real estate funds managers PWG and CNI are merging in a A$600m cash-and-scrip Deal structured as an Off-market bid. Offer Closing Date...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Primewest (PWG AU): Centuria's Off-Market Takeover Bid Could Trigger ASX/S&P 200 Index Inclusion

Primewest and Centuria have agreed a merger with a small premium but which will lead to substantial EPS synergies for PWG unitholders. The spread...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

AUG - CNI Lift Cash Portion of Takeover Offer

CNI intend to lift the cash portion of the offer by 2cps to 22cps. No change to the script ratio of 0.392 CNI shares per AUG share. CNI has...

Forsyth Barr

Centuria Capital Takeover of Augusta Capital - Take Two

Earlier today, Augusta Capital (AUG NZ) announced that it had received a takeover notice for a full takeover from Centuria Capital Group to acquire...

Brian Freitas

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