Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P/ASX A-REIT 200 Index has returned -22% in FY22, underperforming the ASX 200 Index by ~17% basis points.</li>
<li>REIT performance is typically negatively correlated with bond yield movements, however, long-dated government bond yields <em>may</em> be approaching their peak.</li>
<li>The asset deflation bear market in FY22 has improved the REIT valuation. A basket of REITs is currently at 0.8x, versus the five-year average of 1.05x, and 1.1x pre-Covid. </li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P/ASX A-REIT 200 Index has returned -22% in FY22, underperforming the ASX 200 Index by ~17% basis points.
REIT performance is typically negatively correlated with bond yield movements, however, long-dated government bond yields may be approaching their peak.
The asset deflation bear market in FY22 has improved the REIT valuation. A basket of REITs is currently at 0.8x, versus the five-year average of 1.05x, and 1.1x pre-Covid. 


Australia REITs:  Asset Deflation Bear Market

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abacus-property-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10566:1" rel="noopener">Abacus Property (ABP AU)</a> has proposed the de-stapling of Abacus Storage King (ASK), the self-storage assets, along with the proposed A$225.0 million equity raising in ASK.</li>
<li>A key logic of the de-stapling is the potential unlocking of the large, implied discount to NTA in the commercial portfolio. The EGM on the de-stapling proposal is in July.</li>
<li>The equity raise is a key headwind to the rerating. Our SoTP valuation is A$3.10 per unit, which is a 20% upside to the last close price.</li>
</ul>



Abacus Property (ABP AU) has proposed the de-stapling of Abacus Storage King (ASK), the self-storage assets, along with the proposed A$225.0 million equity raising in ASK.
A key logic of the de-stapling is the potential unlocking of the large, implied discount to NTA in the commercial portfolio. The EGM on the de-stapling proposal is in July.
The equity raise is a key headwind to the rerating. Our SoTP valuation is A$3.10 per unit, which is a 20% upside to the last close price.


Abacus Property (ABP AU): Abacus Storage King De-Stapling to Unlock Value

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Back in February with the H1 results announcement, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abacus-property-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10566:1" rel="noopener">Abacus Property (ABP AU)</a> announced <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20230216/pdf/45lns0hn3gdwmp.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">an intention to spin off</a> an ASX-Listed Self Storage REIT with A$3bn in total assets.</li>
<li>The stock popped 7.4% to A$3.06 but is -16% since. In April they dropped their equity holding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-storage-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13762:1" rel="noopener">National Storage REIT (NSR AU)</a>, in May they <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20230518/pdf/05ptw7r9scdhy2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">updated</a> again.  </li>
<li>Last week they had a big new <strong><a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20230607/pdf/05qfhbm08qs51z.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Investor Presentation</a></strong> saying they would go ahead. There's a trade in here. </li>
</ul>


Back in February with the H1 results announcement, Abacus Property (ABP AU) announced an intention to spin off an ASX-Listed Self Storage REIT with A$3bn in total assets.
The stock popped 7.4% to A$3.06 but is -16% since. In April they dropped their equity holding in National Storage REIT (NSR AU), in May they updated again.  
Last week they had a big new Investor Presentation saying they would go ahead. There's a trade in here. 


Conscious De-Stapling With Uplift - The Abacus Property (ABP) Storage Spinoff

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

National Storage REIT / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-storage-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13762:1" rel="noopener">National Storage REIT (NSR AU)</a> (NSREIT) aims to raise around US$200m (A$300m) via an institutional placement.</li>
<li>Past deals have ended up doing well, however, the stock now appears toppish and it's unclear if the deal was well flagged.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



National Storage REIT (NSR AU) (NSREIT) aims to raise around US$200m (A$300m) via an institutional placement.
Past deals have ended up doing well, however, the stock now appears toppish and it's unclear if the deal was well flagged.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


National Storage REIT Placement - Past Deals Have Done Well but Stock Looks Toppish

Australian Unity Office Fund / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australian-unity-office-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24077:1" rel="noopener">Australian Unity Office Fund (AOF AU)</a> has extended Aliro's exclusive due diligence to 15 July. Shares slid 1.8% on concerns of Aliro lowering the offer or walking away. </li>
<li>Encouragingly, Aliro confirmed its intention to pursue the proposal at a price not lower than the offer price and will return with an updated proposal within two weeks.</li>
<li>The offer price (including Sep distribution) of A$2.465 is 14.7% above the last close. The downside is low as the shares are trading in line with the dividend-adjusted unaffected price. </li>
</ul>



Australian Unity Office Fund (AOF AU) has extended Aliro's exclusive due diligence to 15 July. Shares slid 1.8% on concerns of Aliro lowering the offer or walking away. 
Encouragingly, Aliro confirmed its intention to pursue the proposal at a price not lower than the offer price and will return with an updated proposal within two weeks.
The offer price (including Sep distribution) of A$2.465 is 14.7% above the last close. The downside is low as the shares are trading in line with the dividend-adjusted unaffected price. 


AOF Trading at the Dividend-Adjusted Unaffected Price

Australia

Centuria Office REIT operates as a real estate investment trust. The Company invests in commercial properties via a listed property trust, as well as owns and manages office assets. Centuria Office serves customers in Australia.

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Centuria Office REIT (COF AU)

Australia REITs: Asset Deflation Bear Market

The asset deflation bear market in FY22 has improved the overall REIT valuation. A basket of REITs is currently at 0.8x, versus the five-year...

David Blennerhassett

Abacus Property (ABP AU): Abacus Storage King De-Stapling to Unlock Value

A key logic of the de-stapling is the potential unlocking of the large, implied discount to NTA in the commercial portfolio. Our SoTP valuation is...

Arun George

Conscious De-Stapling With Uplift - The Abacus Property (ABP) Storage Spinoff

ABP will spin off its self storage business. Self storage businesses trade at higher multiples|lower yields than commercial/diversified REITs. It's...

Travis Lundy

National Storage REIT Placement - Past Deals Have Done Well but Stock Looks Toppish

National Storage REIT (NSR AU) (NSREIT) aims to raise around US$200m (A$300m) via an institutional placement. In this note, we run the deal through...

Sumeet Singh

AOF Trading at the Dividend-Adjusted Unaffected Price

Aliro will return with an updated proposal within two weeks. Risk/reward favourable as the upside (14.7% to the offer + Sep div) exceeds the likely...

Arun George

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