Japan Experts, Extraordinary Performance, Astris Advisory Japan

Astris Advisory Japan

Japan Experts, Extraordinary Performance

Our Corporate Advisory service is designed to give clients access to a wider range of investors. These include Japan specialists as well as global investors. The goal is to help achieve a fair equity valuation.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Ceres completed the sale of its bitbank stake on 1 October for ¥8.6bn and, the same day, announced a buyback of up to ¥2.5bn, as planned in June when the transaction was announced.</li><li>We think the buyback is incrementally positive for ROE, and if Ceres completes the buyback at the current share price by the end of FY12/26, we estimate that FY12/27E ROE would increase to ~18%.</li><li>The shares trade at 0.63x our SOTP value, so each share that Ceres buys back is also accretive to SOTP value per share.</li></ul>

Ceres completed the sale of its bitbank stake on 1 October for ¥8.6bn and, the same day, announced a buyback of up to ¥2.5bn, as planned in June when the transaction was announced.We think the buyback is incrementally positive for ROE, and if Ceres completes the buyback at the current share price by the end of FY12/26, we estimate that FY12/27E ROE would increase to ~18%.The shares trade at 0.63x our SOTP value, so each share that Ceres buys back is also accretive to SOTP value per share.

Ceres Inc. (3696 JP) - Exit Closed, Buyback Under Way

<ul><li>H1 results well ahead of expectations, led by Point – Ceres raised FY12/26 guidance following strong H1 results, while leaving H2 assumptions unchanged from its initial forecast.</li><li>Interestingly, the company also noted that it continues to see strong advertising demand from financial industry customers exiting Q2.</li><li>The company’s in-house ASP, AD.TRACK, is also seeing improving traction with external customers. </li></ul>

H1 results well ahead of expectations, led by Point – Ceres raised FY12/26 guidance following strong H1 results, while leaving H2 assumptions unchanged from its initial forecast.Interestingly, the company also noted that it continues to see strong advertising demand from financial industry customers exiting Q2.The company’s in-house ASP, AD.TRACK, is also seeing improving traction with external customers. 

Ceres Inc. (3696 JP) - Crystallizing Value and Rewarding Shareholders

<ul><li>Realizing a successful investment and a strategic refocus - The sale of Ceres' 22.39% bitbank stake to the SBI Group for ~¥8.6bn signals a reallocation of the Company's management resources towards its core business and growth areas.</li><li>We estimate Ceres generated a ~4.7x return (~20% gross IRR) on the ~¥1.8bn invested since 2017, an impressive outcome given the volatility of bitbank's earnings and the rapidly shifting crypto landscape.</li><li>Post-completion, Ceres' cryptocurrency exposure shrinks meaningfully to just Mercury, which we think removes a significant overhang on the Company’s earnings outlook and simplifies the Company’s growth strategy.</li></ul>

Realizing a successful investment and a strategic refocus - The sale of Ceres' 22.39% bitbank stake to the SBI Group for ~¥8.6bn signals a reallocation of the Company's management resources towards its core business and growth areas.We estimate Ceres generated a ~4.7x return (~20% gross IRR) on the ~¥1.8bn invested since 2017, an impressive outcome given the volatility of bitbank's earnings and the rapidly shifting crypto landscape.Post-completion, Ceres' cryptocurrency exposure shrinks meaningfully to just Mercury, which we think removes a significant overhang on the Company’s earnings outlook and simplifies the Company’s growth strategy.

Ceres Inc. (3696 JP) - A +20% Gross IRR Exit and a Simpler Growth Story

<ul>
<li>The Point segment was an unexpected beneficiary of Japan's financial services re-rating — The end of negative interest rates and the new NISA have structurally elevated customer acquisition budgets among banks, brokerages, and card issuers, with affiliate channels, such as Moppy, emerging as an area that saw increased advertising spend.</li>
<li>The Point segment saw record revenue and gross profit in Q1, which is expected to moderate QoQ due to seasonality.</li>
<li>If the strong momentum seen in Q1 is sustained, then Ceres’ FY12/26 guidance, without factoring in the acquisition of Squiz, appears conservative. </li>
</ul>


The Point segment was an unexpected beneficiary of Japan's financial services re-rating — The end of negative interest rates and the new NISA have structurally elevated customer acquisition budgets among banks, brokerages, and card issuers, with affiliate channels, such as Moppy, emerging as an area that saw increased advertising spend.
The Point segment saw record revenue and gross profit in Q1, which is expected to moderate QoQ due to seasonality.
If the strong momentum seen in Q1 is sustained, then Ceres’ FY12/26 guidance, without factoring in the acquisition of Squiz, appears conservative. 


Ceres Inc. (3696 JP): Q1 FY12/26 Results Update - 19 May 2026

<ul><li>D2C roll-up in motion, a step change in the D2C segment – SQUIZ is a transformative acquisition for the D2C segment, significantly growing segment revenue on a pro-forma basis and lifting operating margins materially.</li><li>The ¥3.6bn deal (¥3.3bn in cash and ¥299mn in Ceres shares) brings an established, fast-growing online healthcare platform with a proven brand, revenue model, and a sizable, underpenetrated TAM.</li><li>Entry valuation at 1.61x trailing revenue and 15.4x trailing earnings is reasonable considering the growth upside. </li></ul>

D2C roll-up in motion, a step change in the D2C segment – SQUIZ is a transformative acquisition for the D2C segment, significantly growing segment revenue on a pro-forma basis and lifting operating margins materially.The ¥3.6bn deal (¥3.3bn in cash and ¥299mn in Ceres shares) brings an established, fast-growing online healthcare platform with a proven brand, revenue model, and a sizable, underpenetrated TAM.Entry valuation at 1.61x trailing revenue and 15.4x trailing earnings is reasonable considering the growth upside. 

Ceres Inc. (3696 JP) - Capital Recycled, D2C Segment Transformed

Japan

CERES Inc provides internet marketing services. The Company's registered members earn reward points when they take actions at their website such as purchasing products. CERES also provides temporary staffing services online.

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Ceres Inc/Japan (3696 JP)

Ceres Inc. (3696 JP) - Exit Closed, Buyback Under Way

Ceres completed the sale of its bitbank stake on 1 October for ¥8.6bn and, the same day, announced a buyback of up to ¥2.5bn, as planned in June...

Astris Advisory Japan

Ceres Inc. (3696 JP) - Crystallizing Value and Rewarding Shareholders

H1 results well ahead of expectations, led by Point – Ceres raised FY12/26 guidance following strong H1 results, while leaving H2 assumptions...

Astris Advisory Japan

Ceres Inc. (3696 JP) - A +20% Gross IRR Exit and a Simpler Growth Story

The sale of Ceres' 22.39% bitbank stake to the SBI Group for ~¥8.6bn signals a reallocation of the Company's management resources towards its core...

Astris Advisory Japan

Ceres Inc. (3696 JP): Q1 FY12/26 Results Update - 19 May 2026

If the strong momentum seen in Q1 is sustained, then Ceres’ FY12/26 guidance, without factoring in the acquisition of Squiz, appears conservative.

Astris Advisory Japan

Ceres Inc. (3696 JP) - Capital Recycled, D2C Segment Transformed

SQUIZ is a transformative acquisition for the D2C segment, significantly growing segment revenue on a pro-forma basis and lifting operating margins...

Astris Advisory Japan

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