TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Covid 19 is an accelerator of secular shifts in consumer and corporate preferences that is magnifying (or will magnify) those business models most equipped to benefit from them. Key Point: Secular Accelerator beneficiaries are different than the “work from home” beneficiaries, however secular accelerator beneficiaries may also be work from home beneficiaries.<div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</div>

Covid 19 is an accelerator of secular shifts in consumer and corporate preferences that is magnifying (or will magnify) those business models most equipped to benefit from them. Key Point: Secular Accelerator beneficiaries are different than the “work from home” beneficiaries, however secular accelerator beneficiaries may also be work from home beneficiaries.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Coronavirus as Secular Accelerator III: Fintech / Software Edition

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Amid rising Middle East tensions, investors have moved to safe-havens including Treasuries and gold, all while having a muted effect on the US equity market. At this point in time, the rising tensions have done virtually no damage to the bullish trends and indicators that continue to dominate the market. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Manufacturing, Services, Technology, and Transportation: Aero Defense, Large-Cap, HR &amp; Employment Svcs, Large-Cap, Optical Equipment, and Shipping, Energy

Amid rising Middle East tensions, investors have moved to safe-havens including Treasuries and gold, all while having a muted effect on the US equity market. At this point in time, the rising tensions have done virtually no damage to the bullish trends and indicators that continue to dominate the market. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Manufacturing, Services, Technology, and Transportation: Aero Defense, Large-Cap, HR &amp; Employment Svcs, Large-Cap, Optical Equipment, and Shipping, Energy

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The $12.3bn acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dayforce-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27122:1" rel="noopener">Dayforce (DAY US)</a> by Thoma Bravo was completed today, 4 Feb.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ciena-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15442:1" rel="noopener">Ciena Corp (CIEN US)</a> is forecasted to be the primary replacement candidate of DAY in S&amp;P500 following a price surge of more than 170% over the past 6 months.</li>
<li>Other replacement candidates include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alnylam-pharmaceuticals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2191:1" rel="noopener">Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cheniere-energy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16683:1" rel="noopener">Cheniere Energy (LNG US)</a> due to sector balance, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coherent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10180:1" rel="noopener">Coherent (COHR US)</a> due to market cap.</li>
</ul>


The $12.3bn acquisition of Dayforce (DAY US) by Thoma Bravo was completed today, 4 Feb.

Ciena Corp (CIEN US) is forecasted to be the primary replacement candidate of DAY in S&amp;P500 following a price surge of more than 170% over the past 6 months.
Other replacement candidates include Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US) and Cheniere Energy (LNG US) due to sector balance, and Coherent (COHR US) due to market cap.


Ciena Corp (CIEN US): Poised for S&P500 Inclusion Amid Price Surge and Dayforce Acquisition

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage, Quiddity Advisors

Anjana Amarasuriya

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The Spider Select Sector indices are a family of 11 sector-specific indices derived from the SP 500 index based on GICS (Global Industry Classification Standard) classifications.</li>
<li>In this insight, we have presented our expectations for capping flows and SP 500-driven sector tracking fund rebalance flows for the upcoming quarterly review in March 2026.</li>
<li>We expect one-way flow of ~US$7bn in March 2026 for the Select Sector indices in total.</li>
</ul>


The Spider Select Sector indices are a family of 11 sector-specific indices derived from the SP 500 index based on GICS (Global Industry Classification Standard) classifications.
In this insight, we have presented our expectations for capping flows and SP 500-driven sector tracking fund rebalance flows for the upcoming quarterly review in March 2026.
We expect one-way flow of ~US$7bn in March 2026 for the Select Sector indices in total.


Quiddity Leaderboard SP Select Sector Mar26 Rebal: One-Way US$7bn Flow Expected

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Dayforce reported strong financial performance in its second quarter of 2025, exceeding the high end of guidance across all key metrics.</li>
<li>The company observed a 14% growth in recurring revenue, excluding floating currency, on a constant currency basis, and a 420 basis point increase in adjusted EBITDA margin to 31.7%.</li>
<li>Free cash flow for the quarter reached $87.1 million, representing 18.7% of revenue, and the year-to-date figure climbed by 500 basis points to $106.6 million.</li>
</ul>


Dayforce reported strong financial performance in its second quarter of 2025, exceeding the high end of guidance across all key metrics.
The company observed a 14% growth in recurring revenue, excluding floating currency, on a constant currency basis, and a 420 basis point increase in adjusted EBITDA margin to 31.7%.
Free cash flow for the quarter reached $87.1 million, representing 18.7% of revenue, and the year-to-date figure climbed by 500 basis points to $106.6 million.


Thoma Bravo Eyes Dayforce: Can The HR Tech Giant Become Private Equity’s Next Big Bet?

United States

Dayforce, Inc. provides technology solutions. The Company offers a platform for talent and workforce management, human resources, benefits, and payroll services that help to manage the entire employee lifecycle, from recruiting and onboarding, to paying people. Dayforce serves customers worldwide.

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Dayforce (DAY US)

Coronavirus as Secular Accelerator III: Fintech / Software Edition

Covid 19 is an accelerator of secular shifts in consumer and corporate preferences that is magnifying (or will magnify) those business models most...

Aaron Gabin

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Amid rising Middle East tensions, investors have moved to safe-havens including Treasuries and gold, all while having a muted effect on the US...

Vermilion Research

Ciena Corp (CIEN US): Poised for S&P500 Inclusion Amid Price Surge and Dayforce Acquisition

CIEN replaced DAY in S&P500 migrating from MidCap at the close of 6 February with total passive fund volume of 30m shares and estimated net demand...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Quiddity Leaderboard SP Select Sector Mar26 Rebal: One-Way US$7bn Flow Expected

This insight shows the breakdown of flows expected for the S&P Select Sector indices at the March rebalance. We see US$7bn a side on top of the...

Anjana Amarasuriya

Thoma Bravo Eyes Dayforce: Can The HR Tech Giant Become Private Equity’s Next Big Bet?

Dayforce reported strong financial performance in its second quarter of 2025, exceeding the high end of guidance across all key metrics.

Baptista Research

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