External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We forecast CGN Mining to report a net loss of ~RMB68mn in 1H25E, due to (1) a one-off negative margin of the uranium trading business, and (2) a decrease in the spot uranium price in 1H25 that may affect the margin of JVs (mining segment).</li><li>We therefore slash our 2025E earnings forecast by 47% to RMB260mn to reflect the potential weak 1H25E results.</li><li>That said, we regard the impact as one-off, and expect the margin of trading business to return to positive in 2H25E. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We forecast CGN Mining to report a net loss of ~RMB68mn in 1H25E, due to (1) a one-off negative margin of the uranium trading business, and (2) a decrease in the spot uranium price in 1H25 that may affect the margin of JVs (mining segment).We therefore slash our 2025E earnings forecast by 47% to RMB260mn to reflect the potential weak 1H25E results.That said, we regard the impact as one-off, and expect the margin of trading business to return to positive in 2H25E. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CGN Mining (1164 HK) - Potential Loss in 1H25E but Recovery in 2H25E

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is 1 add/delete for each of the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index and the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cgn-mining-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6426:1" rel="noopener">Cgn Mining (1164 HK)</a> is an add to both indices. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/endesa-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21264:1" rel="noopener">Endesa SA</a> is a delete from the Uranium&amp;Nuclear Energy Index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/encore-energy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39218:1" rel="noopener">Encore Energy</a> is a delete from the Uranium&amp;Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.</li>
<li>The net round-trip trade across both indices is US$560m with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 add/delete for each of the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index and the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.

Cgn Mining (1164 HK) is an add to both indices. Endesa SA is a delete from the Uranium&amp;Nuclear Energy Index, Encore Energy is a delete from the Uranium&amp;Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.
The net round-trip trade across both indices is US$560m with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy Index.


MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Double Inclusion for CGN Mining

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The MV Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy index represents the performance of the biggest and the most liquid companies in the Uranium and Nuclear industries.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cgn-mining-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6426:1" rel="noopener">Cgn Mining (1164 HK)</a> will be an ADD and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/endesa-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21264:1" rel="noopener">Endesa SA (ELE SM)</a> will be a DELETE in June 2025.</li>
<li>There are also some big capping flows so we expect a one-way flow of US$227mn for June 2025, which translates to a turnover of 15.7%.</li>
</ul>


The MV Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Energy index represents the performance of the biggest and the most liquid companies in the Uranium and Nuclear industries.

Cgn Mining (1164 HK) will be an ADD and Endesa SA (ELE SM) will be a DELETE in June 2025.
There are also some big capping flows so we expect a one-way flow of US$227mn for June 2025, which translates to a turnover of 15.7%.


[Quiddity Index] MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

<ul><li>CGN Mining released a new pricing mechanism for the off-take agreement (2026-28) with its parent company.</li><li>Under the new mechanism, the proportion of fixed pricing will be reduced to 30% from 40% currently.</li><li>Most importantly, the fixed price in 2026E is set at US$94.22/lb (with 4.1% increment per year in 2027E/28E), which is way higher than the US$61.78/lb in 2023 (with annual increment of 3.5% in 2024/25) under the current mechanism. Besides, the new pricing is also ~18% higher than the latest industry contract price published by Cameco (CCJ US, NR). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CGN Mining released a new pricing mechanism for the off-take agreement (2026-28) with its parent company.Under the new mechanism, the proportion of fixed pricing will be reduced to 30% from 40% currently.Most importantly, the fixed price in 2026E is set at US$94.22/lb (with 4.1% increment per year in 2027E/28E), which is way higher than the US$61.78/lb in 2023 (with annual increment of 3.5% in 2024/25) under the current mechanism. Besides, the new pricing is also ~18% higher than the latest industry contract price published by Cameco (CCJ US, NR). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CGN Mining (1164 HK) - New Pricing Formula for Off-Take Agreement a Big Surprise

<ul><li>We expect to see positive share price momentum in the near term driven by the uranium spot price recovery, as CGN Mining’s earnings are sensitive to the spot price.</li><li>The spot price, which is currently trading at ~US$70/lb, remains at a ~13% discount to the contract price (US$80/lb) for which the market is a lot more sizeable.</li><li>With easing concerns on the war of tariff, we see chances of an improving interest for procurement in the spot market. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect to see positive share price momentum in the near term driven by the uranium spot price recovery, as CGN Mining’s earnings are sensitive to the spot price.The spot price, which is currently trading at ~US$70/lb, remains at a ~13% discount to the contract price (US$80/lb) for which the market is a lot more sizeable.With easing concerns on the war of tariff, we see chances of an improving interest for procurement in the spot market. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CGN Mining (1164 HK) - Uranium Price Gap Likely to Further Narrow, a Key Catalyst for CGN Mining

Hong Kong

CGN Mining Company Ltd., through subsidiaries, operates businesses related to nuclear energy.  The Company supplies nuclear fuel, produces nuclear energy, and constructs plants for renewable energy such as wind power, hydroelectric and solar energy.

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CGN Mining (1164 HK)