Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Fair value gains are the single most important driver of good net profit at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/king-s-town-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4136:1" rel="noopener">King's Town Bank (2809 TT)</a> in the most recent quarter.</li>
<li>Monthly revenue figures show strong 179% growth YoY in September, which we can see before any 3Q23 release.</li>
<li>Credit costs rose from 43bps to 83bps of loans from 1Q23 to 2Q23, which is a significant increase, may be more reflective of underlying operations.</li>
</ul>


Fair value gains are the single most important driver of good net profit at King's Town Bank (2809 TT) in the most recent quarter.
Monthly revenue figures show strong 179% growth YoY in September, which we can see before any 3Q23 release.
Credit costs rose from 43bps to 83bps of loans from 1Q23 to 2Q23, which is a significant increase, may be more reflective of underlying operations.


King's Town Bank - Net Profit +NTD697m Vs Fair Value Gains +NTD2,004m, Core Items All Worsening

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 14th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD12.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Yageo, Taiwan Cement, Mediatek, Wiwynn, Realtek Semi, Compal Elec, Cathay Financial, Chailease.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 14th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD12.5bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Yageo, Taiwan Cement, Mediatek, Wiwynn, Realtek Semi, Compal Elec, Cathay Financial, Chailease.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Apr 14th): Yageo, Taiwan Cement, Mediatek, Wiwynn

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning (2331 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-bank-co-ltd-3388a037-4214-4997-b45d-520518cfdb57" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10987:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongyue-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20429:1" rel="noopener">Dongyue Group (189 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical (2382 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-health-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29677:1" rel="noopener">JD Health (6618 HK)</a>. Shorts increased in the Communication Services and Materials sectors while decreasing in the Financials, Information Technology and Health Care sectors.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-pacific-international-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13475:1" rel="noopener">Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sekisui-house-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4508:1" rel="noopener">Sekisui House (1928 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-seikan-group-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11858:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Seikan Group Holdings L (5901 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/money-forward-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25919:1" rel="noopener">Money Forward (3994 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eneos-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:638:1" rel="noopener">ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamaha-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17841:1" rel="noopener">Yamaha Corp (7951 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasalle-logiport-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22658:1" rel="noopener">Lasalle Logiport REIT (3466 JP)</a>. Shorts increased in most sectors led by the Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Real Estate, Information Technology and Materials stocks.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amorepacific-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20854:1" rel="noopener">Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hmm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13494:1" rel="noopener">HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-electronics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8814:1" rel="noopener">LG Electronics (066570 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinpoong-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7296:1" rel="noopener">Shinpoong Pharmaceutical (019170 KS)</a>   while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-solutions" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8656:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Solutions (009830 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kt-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1112:1" rel="noopener">KT Corp (030200 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ncsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5169:1" rel="noopener">NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS)</a>.</p></div><div><p>In Taiwan, shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wan-hai-lines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14262:1" rel="noopener">Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fubon-financial-holding-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11869:1" rel="noopener">Fubon Financial Holding Co (2881 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10904:1" rel="noopener">Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)</a>     while shorts covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6450:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/catcher-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4957:1" rel="noopener">Catcher Technology (2474 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/focaltech-systems-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11240:1" rel="noopener">Focaltech Systems (3545 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuvoton-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15913:1" rel="noopener">Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chailease-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6579:1" rel="noopener">Chailease Holding (5871 TT)</a>.</p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Meituan (3690 HK), Li Ning (2331 HK), China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK), Dongyue Group (189 HK) and Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) while there was short covering on Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), Sunny Optical (2382 HK), Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) and JD Health (6618 HK). Shorts increased in the Communication Services and Materials sectors while decreasing in the Financials, Information Technology and Health Care sectors.In Japan, stocks increased on Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP), Sekisui House (1928 JP), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Toyo Seikan Group Holdings L (5901 JP) and Canon Inc (7751 JP) while there was short covering on Money Forward (3994 JP), ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), SBI Holdings (8473 JP), Yamaha Corp (7951 JP) and Lasalle Logiport REIT (3466 JP). Shorts increased in most sectors led by the Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Real Estate, Information Technology and Materials stocks.In Korea, shorts increased on Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS), Kakao Corp (035720 KS), HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS), LG Electronics (066570 KS) and Shinpoong Pharmaceutical (019170 KS)   while shorts were covered on Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Hanwha Solutions (009830 KS), KT Corp (030200 KS), LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS) and NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS).In Taiwan, shorts increased on Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT), TSMC (2330 TT), Fubon Financial Holding Co (2881 TT), Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) and Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)     while shorts covered on United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT), Catcher Technology (2474 TT), Focaltech Systems (3545 TT), Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT) and Chailease Holding (5871 TT).

Asia Shorts: Meituan, CMB, Li Ning, Sekisui, Toyo Seikan, Toshiba, Kakao, HMM, LGE, Wan Hai, TSMC

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Yuanta Financial Holding Co / Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong><em>*Very Solid 1Q21: </em></strong>Yuanta Financial Holding (2885.TT) [Yuanta] reported 1Q21 results of NTD 9.4 bn, increasing NTD 4.9 bn (107.5%) linked quarter. Much of Yuanta’s linked quarter growth can be attributed to strong net interest income growth from both a margin loan and bank loan balance increases; a significant reduction in loss provisioning; and net fee improvement on the back of an ADTV increase on the TAIEX; and</p><p><strong><em>*Hidden Yuanta Earnings At Bank:</em></strong> At 21% of Yuanta’s bottom-line, Yunata Bank posted strong core operating results as well – NTD 2.0 bn, increasing NTD 731 mn or 59.2% linked quarter. Reserve cover of NPLs is extraordinary and the best we’ve seen in Asia thus far at 12.1x. By our calculation, Yuanta Bank has over reserved and can release upward of NTD 10.5 bn – representing over one quarter of Yuanta’s quarterly bottom-line.</p>

*Very Solid 1Q21: Yuanta Financial Holding (2885.TT) [Yuanta] reported 1Q21 results of NTD 9.4 bn, increasing NTD 4.9 bn (107.5%) linked quarter. Much of Yuanta’s linked quarter growth can be attributed to strong net interest income growth from both a margin loan and bank loan balance increases; a significant reduction in loss provisioning; and net fee improvement on the back of an ADTV increase on the TAIEX; and*Hidden Yuanta Earnings At Bank: At 21% of Yuanta’s bottom-line, Yunata Bank posted strong core operating results as well – NTD 2.0 bn, increasing NTD 731 mn or 59.2% linked quarter. Reserve cover of NPLs is extraordinary and the best we’ve seen in Asia thus far at 12.1x. By our calculation, Yuanta Bank has over reserved and can release upward of NTD 10.5 bn – representing over one quarter of Yuanta’s quarterly bottom-line.

Yuanta Financial Holding – Firing On All Cylinders

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<p>We are no longer recommending an overweight to China (<strong>MSCI China</strong>) due to recent RS deterioration. Our favorite countries remain Taiwan (<strong>TAIEX</strong>) and India (<strong>SENSEX</strong>), while Brazil (<strong>Bovespa</strong>) and South Korea (<strong>KOSPI</strong>) display improving price and RS trends -- add exposure. MSCI EM <strong>Technology </strong>and <strong>Materials </strong>are our top two Sector overweights. Additionally, the EM <strong>Health Care</strong> Sector shows bullish price and RS inflections, making it a timely Sector to add exposure to at current levels.</p>

We are no longer recommending an overweight to China (MSCI China) due to recent RS deterioration. Our favorite countries remain Taiwan (TAIEX) and India (SENSEX), while Brazil (Bovespa) and South Korea (KOSPI) display improving price and RS trends -- add exposure. MSCI EM Technology and Materials are our top two Sector overweights. Additionally, the EM Health Care Sector shows bullish price and RS inflections, making it a timely Sector to add exposure to at current levels.

Overweight EM Vs. EAFE; Dollar Weakness Continues

Taiwan

Chailease Holding Co Ltd provides financing services such as leasing, installment sale, import/export factoring and direct financing.

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Chailease Holding (5871 TT)

King's Town Bank - Net Profit +NTD697m Vs Fair Value Gains +NTD2,004m, Core Items All Worsening

King's Town Bank is seeing earnings driven only by Fair Value Gains. Its net interest income, net fee income, operating costs, are worsening....

Daniel Tabbush

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Apr 14th): Yageo, Taiwan Cement, Mediatek, Wiwynn

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Yageo, Taiwan Cement, Mediatek, Wiwynn, Realtek...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Shorts: Meituan, CMB, Li Ning, Sekisui, Toyo Seikan, Toshiba, Kakao, HMM, LGE, Wan Hai, TSMC

The Insight looks at movements in short interest across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

Yuanta Financial Holding – Firing On All Cylinders

YUANTA FINANCIAL: Yuanta reported a QOQ 1Q21 results increase of 107.5%, attributed to strong net interest income growth and a provision reduction....

Thomas J. Monaco

Overweight EM Vs. EAFE; Dollar Weakness Continues

Our favorite countries remain Taiwan (TAIEX) and India (SENSEX), while Brazil (Bovespa) and South Korea (KOSPI) display improving price and RS...

Vermilion Research

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